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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Plenty of time for block shift south 8578307316d27ca1670bbfad1163ac5a.gif

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Yes indeed!

On the 0z GEFS, once the storm redevelops on the Mid Atlantic coast it crawls to the north east.
Saturday at 10 am the mean low position is at the southern tip of the DelMarVa. It takes until 10 pm to get to Atlantic City, NJ. It is still just off of the central NJ coast at 4 am on Sunday.

If this coastal redevelops at the right location, the slow movement could make this very interesting for many of us.

A03EFC5F-3885-4B73-9D80-E7ED7071A6D8.png

609B8931-C44D-46B7-8028-DB199D24D688.png

C347670E-E2F5-4302-A50E-902F1651F803.png

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1 hour ago, AdamHLG said:

I have to ask. Are we done here? Forget fantasies every 10 days. Last real storm was 2016. It used to be every 3 years. This is bad but is this permanent? I loved this winter hobby since 1991 but I fear it’s over. Sorry for being a Deb. Needed to vent. This winter sucked and this season is over. Better to face it, look into the sun angle, and walk it off.


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Nah. We have been stuck in a suck ass Nina for 3 years. And I know PSU will say that we dont usually do this bad in Nina's. And he is right as far as this cesspool of a winter goes. But I am almost 55 years old. And Nina's suck. They just do. They are Midwest specials. Always have been. And always will be. 

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19 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Primary too far N, likely will destroy NE once it redevelops


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A Miller B in a nina should be normal but this winter you'd hardly expect that, lol But March 2018 sure had one that left us with wind (in fact it was 5 years ago Thursday I believe...I posted about the wind knocking down a stop sign!)

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Been tracking snow long enough as a NY native to know this setup is absolutely prime for the NYC metro into SNE. The NW suburbs of NYC from NE NJ to the Lower Hudson valley through CT are going to get buried under 2+ feet if tonight’s euro is remotely correct. Growing up in that area, coastal jumps to this general vicinity off OC and a crawling, deepening low means a MAJOR storm for them; a blizzard at that.

We need the primary to track way further south for our latitude to score with this. The thing is.. this time… we actually have the mechanism in place to allow such a trend to potentially unfold. (What the EPS mean shows versus the OP which tracks the primary further north and redevelops a coastal further north off OC)

Not saying we hit flush… but areas NW of I-95 are very much in the game from DCA north. The fail risk is pretty high here though. March 15-17th still seems to be our best chance.

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WB 0Z EPS
9D92852E-A1BF-49AF-AFC0-31A054C0C994.thumb.png.62c152c7f6d3ba5747179714626a73fa.png
39A7F498-8E45-4B6D-B599-4C381E7FC88B.thumb.png.eaba1209df22b0250f3ab5779844df0a.png
E38467F3-28C1-4113-9C39-79CBF10E7C2C.thumb.png.bf1a410009ed9b4d8967b343b0ec2386.png


Nice spread of MSLP on that ensemble. Have to love the complete change in evolution among models. Our first look fails, and we end up with a different type of threat altogether. Issue is… it’s a Miller B. We all know the easiest way to fail with Miller B’s and who they typically favor. Long way to go though.
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Euro is a few showers followed by a dry slot. Good night. 

0d0e548f1ddedff4469ea2fade9357b2.gif

The Euro OP is a no go for us and a major SNE special…. But the EPS mean is way further south with where it pops the coastal (off the coast at the NC SC border) and then absolutely bombs out off the VA coast as it heads NE. Big difference for our area between those outcomes.

Coastal pop near ocean city = fuck you to us
coastal pop near South Carolina = we’re in the game

Coastal pops at 150 - 6.25 days from now. FINALLY within 7 days.
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Am I seeing this correctly? Primary tracks to Kentucky and then a coastal develops off the coast near the NC / SC border? If a coastal were to pop down there and bomb out / crawl as depicted, we have a shot. If the primary gets to Ohio and develops near ocean city, we’re fucked and PHL to BOS is buried.


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Yea devastating for us. We need the block 5050 to be superstrong and get the primary ideally in Tennessee worse case Kentucky so we can at least get a front end dump

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Yea devastating for us. We need the block 5050 to be superstrong and get the primary ideally in Tennessee so we can at least get a front end dump

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Not really sure that mean, if it played out exactly as depicted, would be “devastating” for us. If a coastal were to pop off the SC coastline and bomb out near Virginia, I’m pretty positive my area would get a warning level event. The ensemble mean tracks the primary to Kentucky. d50895cda9628f83df7c3d6b4f97d366.gif


Now… the OP would certainly be devastating as it pops the coastal near ocean city and it bombs out way too late.


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Not really sure that mean, if it played out exactly as depicted, would be “devastating” for us. If a coastal were to pop off the SC coastline and bomb out near Virginia, I’m pretty positive my area would get a warning level event.

Now… the OP would certainly be devastating as it pops the coastal near ocean city and it bombs out way too late.


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I'm going by op scenario which I'm praying is a northerly outlier

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