March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But did the niño ever really couple though?

Why didn’t the niño couple, a niño failing to couple is also concerning.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s the pacific. The ser isn’t just an independent feature. The pna has been negative all winter. It’s been negative for years. The pac jet had been on steroids for years…the center pac ridge won’t budge….weather goes from west to east…it’s always about the pac

The SER pumps ahead of every wave lately regardless of the pacific longwave pattern.  The only time we’ve been able to suppress the SER is the rare times we’ve had an absolutely PERFECT pac longwave configuration such that we get a full latitude epo pna ridge and direct cross polar arctic air. 

[psuhoffman]

@Ji but if you’re saying part of the issue is with a warmer pac and expanded Hadley cell (which causes that pac firehose jet btw) it’s simply too much heat directed at us upstream I agree. But that’s not a temporary longwave pattern issue. That’s what I mean. It’s not just the pac longwave configuration.  It’s just so warm that almost every configuration is a fail except that incredibly rare epo pna full lat ridge combo. 

[Ji]

The SER pumps ahead of every wave lately regardless of the pacific longwave pattern.  The only time we’ve been able to suppress the SER is the rare times we’ve had an absolutely PERFECT pac longwave configuration such that we get a full latitude epo pna ridge and direct cross polar arctic air. 

Is the ser responsible for Mjo always hitting a wall at phase 7?

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But did the niño ever really couple though? Not saying that it diminishes the issue...as neutrals haven't been good either, but I'm not quite sure we can compare that to when we have a moderate or stronger niño since we haven't yet had one during this stretch.

Ok so we can snow that once every 12 years we get a perfect modoki moderate Nino that couples and coincides with a -AO. Ok. And how’s our snow climo gonna look in that reality if that’s what we need to get a snowy winter? 

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Before my rant I’m about to unleash let me say I’m still hopeful for the period as a whole, especially the 15-20th. But so what. If we get one snow it doesn’t change anything I’m about to say…
 

Ridges are pumping heat way further north than historically typical. Not just the SER but that’s the one we care about most!  
 

The pacific Hadley cell has expended and shifted north. 
 

We have had numerous perfect track rainstorms the last 5 years. 
 

We have seen cold fail to push even when we have a flow off northern Canada because even a bit of maritime mix ruins it. We only get cold with direct cross polar flow lately. 
 

The pacific, gulf, and Atlantic basin SST are on fire.  
 

The mountains in the west will encourage troughing but as soon as systems eject that feel the heat from the gulf and amplify and cut. 
 

Blocking fails more often at our latitude because the ridging is stronger than historically normal shifting the typical mid latitude response north. 
 

Patterns that used to mitigate a bad pac lately fail to even dent the SER.  
 

None of this is speculative. I’m just describing what is ACTUALLY happening.  This isn’t predictive. This has already happened. It’s not change. It’s our current reality. 
 

But it seems to me there is something, that which must not be named, that can explain all of this!   

Well, IF things continue like this in the coming years, I think we're gonna have to learn to be okay with this. I mean seriously--for our own mental/spiritual health! I mean yes we don't know everything about the future (only what the trend has been up to this date), but if this is coming/gonna get worse...we have to learn to be okay with it--I mean we have no choice, lol.

It may not be worth getting upset about (or even giving too much thought to)...otherwise we'll be living in a dread of "terrifying" trends and such creating the illusion of some objectively bad thing coming that isn't really objectively bad.

My guess is if, say, a decade from now, snow chances are where they are now or worse...we would have gotten used to that reality (by force--because literally nothing would've happened, and things could be worse by then!). We all love snow--but maybe our reality in the future is more of this, I don't know. But it may soon be time to kinda distance ourselves y'all, lol 

I mean unless you love tracking weather just to track weather (and to each their own), if you're tracking for snow? It may not be worth it, seriously. I mean we'll see...but I've already kinda been preparing for that reality. With you-know-what being a potential cause!

[osfan24]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, IF things continue like this in the coming years, I think we're gonna have to learn to be okay with this. I mean seriously--for our own mental/spiritual health! I mean yes we don't know everything about the future (only what the trend has been up to this date), but if this is coming/gonna get worse...we have to learn to be okay with it--I mean we have no choice, lol.

It may not be worth getting upset about (or even giving too much thought to)...otherwise we'll be living in a dread of "terrifying" trends and such creating the illusion of some objectively bad thing coming that isn't really objectively bad.

My guess is if, say, a decade from now, snow chances are where they are now or worse...we would have gotten used to that reality (by force--because literally nothing would've happened, and things could be worse by then!). We all love snow--but maybe our reality in the future is more of this, I don't know. But it may soon be time to kinda distance ourselves y'all, lol 

I mean unless you love tracking weather just to track weather (and to each their own), if you're tracking for snow? It may not be worth it, seriously. I mean we'll see...but I've already kinda been preparing for that reality. With you-know-what being a potential cause!

Be ok with what? If this is the new base state, we will just have to shut down the forum. There won't be anything to track but once a decade or so when all of the stars align.

[Ji]

I wonder if we need a historic nino to blow up this configuration

[jayyy]

Palisades is getting slammed AGAIN, by yet ANOTHER massive snowstorm, to the tune of 2-4 feet of snow on top of what has already fallen in the past three months! I wanna move there too! I'd show them how to dig snow! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

You’d have to jeb wobble!


.

[jayyy]

Well, IF things continue like this in the coming years, I think we're gonna have to learn to be okay with this. I mean seriously--for our own mental/spiritual health! I mean yes we don't know everything about the future (only what the trend has been up to this date), but if this is coming/gonna get worse...we have to learn to be okay with it--I mean we have no choice, lol.

It may not be worth getting upset about (or even giving too much thought to)...otherwise we'll be living in a dread of "terrifying" trends and such creating the illusion of some objectively bad thing coming that isn't really objectively bad.

My guess is if, say, a decade from now, snow chances are where they are now or worse...we would have gotten used to that reality (by force--because literally nothing would've happened, and things could be worse by then!). We all love snow--but maybe our reality in the future is more of this, I don't know. But it may soon be time to kinda distance ourselves y'all, lol 

I mean unless you love tracking weather just to track weather (and to each their own), if you're tracking for snow? It may not be worth it, seriously. I mean we'll see...but I've already kinda been preparing for that reality. With you-know-what being a potential cause!

That, or moving (if feasible) if snow is paramount to your mental wellbeing. Seems silly to say, but I know folks who’ve moved to snow belts because they love it so much.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Be ok with what? If this is the new base state, we will just have to shut down the forum. There won't be anything to track but once a decade or so when all of the stars align.

Be okay with winters like the last 7, I mean. Not like we'll have much of a choice! And nah I'm sure some of those in here purely for the science of weather will still want to track. But I think it may become more like the SE forum with maybe 3 main posters, haha

[jayyy]

Be okay with winters like the last 7, I mean. Not like we'll have much of a choice! And nah I'm sure some of those in here purely for the science of weather will still want to track. But I think it may become more like the SE forum with maybe 3 main posters, haha

We’re the new charlotte baby!

My area over to PSU had a very good 2020, but that is seeming more and more like a complete fluke. Outside of that, it’s barely snowed besides Jan 2016 and march 2018. Pretty depressing to think about.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Is the ser responsible for Mjo always hitting a wall at phase 7?

No the indo pac warm pool is but again that’s not a temporary problem and is also related to…you know. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Be ok with what? If this is the new base state, we will just have to shut down the forum. There won't be anything to track but once a decade or so when all of the stars align.

This year would still bad within the construct of the new normal!  I am not saying this year is what every winter will be like. We just had some snow last winter.  2019 wasn’t awful. We had some snow in 2018. Yea 2017/2020/2023 were total non winters. 
 

So I am not saying this winter is the new normal. But I am concerned what we’ve seen on the whole of the last 7 might be closer to a new normal. I do think this is a dowb cycle and better days are ahead.  But how much better is the question. Do we return to what used to be normal. ~20” in Baltimore. ~15 in DC. I have my doubts. 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That, or moving (if feasible) if snow is paramount to your mental wellbeing. Seems silly to say, but I know folks who’ve moved to snow belts because they love it so much.

I looked into it. Not so easy.  Our area might be snow challenged but it excels in many other categories. And most of our spouses would put the brakes on moves for snow I would imagine.  My wife thinks it’s cold at 55 with a slight breeze. 

[psuhoffman]

We still have hope coming up but I think the wave after the one we’re tracking now will have the better chance. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That, or moving (if feasible) if snow is paramount to your mental wellbeing. Seems silly to say, but I know folks who’ve moved to snow belts because they love it so much.

I sometimes question the actual percentage of people where moving for snow is actually feasible! I mean how many people can uproot everything to move far away (and if things gets worse...even further away, lol). Like to leave all other life things behind for snow? I mean I love snow but there's no way I could uproot that far away, roots be darned, lol

[kristia]

23 minutes ago, jayyy said:

That, or moving (if feasible) if snow is paramount to your mental wellbeing. Seems silly to say, but I know folks who’ve moved to snow belts because they love it so much.

I actually considered doing this at one point but I’m glad I didn’t. The older I get, the more I am realizing that winter doesn’t do wonders for my mood. 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This year would still bad within the construct of the new normal!  I am not saying this year is what every winter will be like. We just had some snow last winter.  2019 wasn’t awful. We had some snow in 2018. Yea 2017/2020/2023 were total non winters. 
 

So I am not saying this winter is the new normal. But I am concerned what we’ve seen on the whole of the last 7 might be closer to a new normal. I do think this is a dowb cycle and better days are ahead.  But how much better is the question. Do we return to what used to be normal. ~20” in Baltimore. ~15 in DC. I have my doubts. 

Doubt it. 

Maybe 60% of the previous normal will be the new normal. That’s what my trend graph was pointing towards. 

~10 DCA
~14 BWI & IAD

With a KU once every 6-8 years. Or something like that. 

[Chris78]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We still have hope coming up but I think the wave after the one we’re tracking now will have the better chance. 

Yep. Ops at range but both the euro and CMC looked pretty darn good at the end of their runs. Really looked like 'incoming'.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS and GEFS at 6 days.

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, kristia said:

I actually considered doing this at one point but I’m glad I didn’t. The older I get, the more I am realizing that winter doesn’t do wonders for my mood. 

On the scale of importance, there are just too many more important factors in life to consider before moving just for snow, imo

[Terpeast]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

On the scale of importance, there are just too many more important factors in life to consider before moving just for snow, imo

Yeah, I wfh and so does my wife. We could have moved to tahoe or buffalo. But we chose here because our daughter gets to see my mom once a week and we both have friends in the area. Too important to pass up just to live in an area with more snow, which we could always visit on a chase btw. 

[Ji]

WB 18Z EPS and GEFS at 6 days.

Did it shift south a bit?

[Weather Will]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Did it shift south a bit?

About the same…

[dallen7908]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I wfh and so does my wife. We could have moved to tahoe or buffalo. But we chose here because our daughter gets to see my mom once a week and we both have friends in the area. Too important to pass up just to live in an area with more snow, which we could always visit on a chase btw. 

Each fall I plan an extended trip to New England or Quebec and follow that location's weather too.  This year I went to Quebec City spent 4 days Nordic skiing and also a couple of days at the Winter Carnival.  I also did a walking tour of Quebec in what my sister called a blizzard.  Fortunately, we arrived a few days after -47 - but they were still talking about it. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Doubt it. 

Maybe 60% of the previous normal will be the new normal. That’s what my trend graph was pointing towards. 

~10 DCA
~14 BWI & IAD

With a KU once every 6-8 years. Or something like that. 

That’s pretty much exactly what I would guess too.  

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

About the same…

Here is the end of the 18z EPS at 144 hours vs. the 12z EPS at the same time.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Stronger/more amped WC energy 0z

https://ibb.co/5B9dBFg 

Stronger -NAO.. slightly sw pac ridge, but it's oriented more toward -epo, and a +pna trough looks like it's trying to undercut the ridge vs 18z

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Yep. Ops at range but both the euro and CMC looked pretty darn good at the end of their runs. Really looked like 'incoming'.

So did the first chance. That’s the MO for the season. A great 10-12 look turns into a completely different look by day 7-9. It’s happened all winter long.