March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GEFS making a big trend towards OP, GEFS can change on a dime with new data, but should be interesting which model suite wins the battle.


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We knew what we were getting into with a 10 plus day threat right.  I am wondering what happened to the block of the ages.  Not even a sit and spin low in the east just pushes the heat right up to Maine.  Crazy 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS based AO forecasts are still trending lower for Mar 6th and 10th (though at a slower pace as we get closer). The NAO has changed little and remains solidly negative through then. So, the models being less aggressive since yesterday with the change to a colder E US isn't due to the AO/NAO levels:

For March 6th:

2/26 run: -0.1

2/27 run: -0.5

2/28 run: -1.3

3/1 run: -1.5

3/2 run: -1.9

3/3 run: -2.2

3/4 run: -2.3

 

 For March 10th:

2/28 run: 0.0

3/1 run: -0.9

3/2 run: -2.0

3/3 run: -2.1

3/4 run: -2.4

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Need to figure out what’s causing shortwaves to continually just dump into the southwest.


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Trying to remember if that was an issue the first two years of this now (finally) fading la nina. Don't remember this being an issue last year, but I could be wrong.

[Ji]

18z gfs might of been the worst run of the season from 0 to 384. My guy last week was gfs was going to beat the euro but I don’t feel that way for this storm.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z gfs might of been the worst run of the season from 0 to 384. My guy last week was gfs was going to beat the euro but I don’t feel that way for this storm.

How did your guy beat the euro?

[Amped]

EPS still looks good around the 18th.    You can see the classic 2 lobe Negative height anomaly off  one blob off the east coast and another in the Ohio valley.  The SE ridge is gone.

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Trying to remember if that was an issue the first two years of this now (finally) fading la nina. Don't remember this being an issue last year, but I could be wrong.

The dominant feature in a Nina is the NE Pacific ridge. The orientation/location can vary, dependent on multiple variables including the strength and character of the NPAC jet. Most of this winter it locked into one of the worst possible configurations for the MA and SE. Last winter it was more variable. January was a favorable period as the mean trough shifted eastward, so it was a pretty cold month. Also delivered 3 snowstorms, but bad luck for NW areas in 2 of those.

[BristowWx]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z gfs might of been the worst run of the season from 0 to 384. My guy last week was gfs was going to beat the euro but I don’t feel that way for this storm.

soon find out we will

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, Amped said:

EPS still looks good around the 18th.    You can see the classic 2 lobe Negative height anomaly off  one blob off the east coast and another in the Ohio valley.  The SE ridge is gone.

You can see the effects of the waning Nina....if only this were December headed into the winter. We'll have plenty more chances in the years to follow I'm sure. I'm not part of the 'it will likely never snow again' crew.

[Chris78]

42 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z gfs might of been the worst run of the season from 0 to 384. My guy last week was gfs was going to beat the euro but I don’t feel that way for this storm.

Fucking cutter after cutter after cutter

[Ruin]

sadly i said this 2-3 days ago watch this shit be a cutter then more and more signs of a cutter are coming. we also wont get any of this cold the models tried to say we would. storms will go way west and torch us all to the east 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

sadly i said this 2-3 days ago watch this shit be a cutter then more and more signs of a cutter are coming. we also wont get any of this cold the models tried to say we would. storms will go way west and torch us all to the east 

Yes this winter has been ruined 

[psuhoffman]

The blocking is having the typical response. The wave yesterday turned southeast after cutting. There is a wave early next week that is forced to turn southeast.  The trough in the west is eventually forced east.  It’s just all happening way too far north for us.  And this has been true of almost every block the last 5 years.  Extreme blocking is supposed to be good for the mid Atlantic.  Historically it’s bad for New England.  But lately northern New England has been winning big with blocks and we just get colder rain.   

 

[stormtracker]

18z Euro basically the same as 12z with the trof/sw just a tiny bit less deeper.  Couldn't glean more from it since it only runs to 90

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The blocking is having the typical response. The wave yesterday turned southeast after cutting. There is a wave early next week that is forced to turn southeast.  The trough in the west is eventually forced east.  It’s just all happening way too far north for us.  And this has been true of almost every block the last 5 years.  Extreme blocking is supposed to be good for the mid Atlantic.  Historically it’s bad for New England.  But lately northern New England has been winning big with blocks and we just get colder rain.   

 

Why are the blocks not delivering?  It is the Nina base state? AMO or North Atlantic warm pool ?

 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The blocking is having the typical response. The wave yesterday turned southeast after cutting. There is a wave early next week that is forced to turn southeast.  The trough in the west is eventually forced east.  It’s just all happening way too far north for us.  And this has been true of almost every block the last 5 years.  Extreme blocking is supposed to be good for the mid Atlantic.  Historically it’s bad for New England.  But lately northern New England has been winning big with blocks and we just get colder rain.   

 

Maybe typical responses are just further North now due to climate warming? Strong West NAO blocks ? Davis Straits only benefit upper NY state and Maine?  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Need to figure out what’s causing shortwaves to continually just dump into the southwest.


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It’s more than that. We’ve had snowstorms from waves that came out of the southwest before.  The real problem is any wave that approaches the SER goes berserk!  Look at the wave on the 18z Gfs in the SW on the 16th. Tons of cold and confluence in front of it. But within 24 hours the flow ahead of that wave obliterates it and pumps a ridge to kingdom come again. 
 

I’ve pointed this out before and no one wanted to engage. But warm is just winning in a rout.  Waves come out of ty west and amp to hell no matter what the pattern in front is. It’s not the pac. By day 3 the pac is almost the exact opposite with a north central pac trough. You can’t blame the pac with a ridge there then blame the pac with a trough. I’m tired of that nonsense. There is something else going on. The SER is being fed by more than just the pac and because if it any wave that comes off the pacific amplified way to our west. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

Why are the blocks not delivering?  It is the Nina base state? AMO or North Atlantic warm pool ?

 

This was a Nino!  

It’s not just the pacific. Im going to say this over and over and over. The pac is an easy scape goat since we are in a -pdo so we have had a predominant -pna.  But we snowed in past -pdo periods when we got blocking with a crap pacific.  A bad pac shouldn’t mean no hope no matter what else is going on!  Yes we snow way more with a good pac but I can cite a ton of snows historically with a pac every bit as bad as we’ve had lately!  And the proof it’s not just the pac is the few times the pac hasn’t been awful the SER has still been an issue.  

[jayyy]

Live vicariously. Watch snow happen in the places that are actually getting winter. I'm watching Truckee get pummeled again. 2 ft. a few days ago. Looks like another 2 feet into tomorrow.

Yep. My bitter soul from this train wreck of a winter has been somewhat restored making this trip up to NY.



This is my current view as I’m stoned and drunk at the bar. Almost shed a tear of joy watching snow accumulate.

I turned to my girlfriend and said “is this shit really happening?”

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This was a Nino!  

It’s not just the pacific. Im going to say this over and over and over. The pac is an easy scape goat since we are in a -pdo so we have had a predominant -pna.  But we snowed in past -pdo periods when we got blocking with a crap pacific.  A bad pac shouldn’t mean no hope no matter what else is going on!  Yes we snow way more with a good pac but I can cite a ton of snows historically with a pac every bit as bad as we’ve had lately!  And the proof it’s not just the pac is the few times the pac hasn’t been awful the SER has still been an issue.  

So it’s the warm Atlantic that is causing the SER to hold and never fold?  It constantly rebuilds and better each time .

[psuhoffman]

Before my rant I’m about to unleash let me say I’m still hopeful for the period as a whole, especially the 15-20th. But so what. If we get one snow it doesn’t change anything I’m about to say…
 

Ridges are pumping heat way further north than historically typical. Not just the SER but that’s the one we care about most!  
 

The pacific Hadley cell has expended and shifted north. 
 

We have had numerous perfect track rainstorms the last 5 years. 
 

We have seen cold fail to push even when we have a flow off northern Canada because even a bit of maritime mix ruins it. We only get cold with direct cross polar flow lately. 
 

The pacific, gulf, and Atlantic basin SST are on fire.  
 

The mountains in the west will encourage troughing but as soon as systems eject that feel the heat from the gulf and amplify and cut. 
 

Blocking fails more often at our latitude because the ridging is stronger than historically normal shifting the typical mid latitude response north. 
 

Patterns that used to mitigate a bad pac lately fail to even dent the SER.  
 

None of this is speculative. I’m just describing what is ACTUALLY happening.  This isn’t predictive. This has already happened. It’s not change. It’s our current reality. 
 

But it seems to me there is something, that which must not be named, that can explain all of this!   

[frd]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The SER is being fed by more than just the pac and because if it any wave that comes off the pacific amplified way to our west. 

I read that the Atlantic SST profile has rapidly warmed the last three years.  

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This was a Nino!  

It’s not just the pacific. Im going to say this over and over and over. The pac is an easy scape goat since we are in a -pdo so we have had a predominant -pna.  But we snowed in past -pdo periods when we got blocking with a crap pacific.  A bad pac shouldn’t mean no hope no matter what else is going on!  Yes we snow way more with a good pac but I can cite a ton of snows historically with a pac every bit as bad as we’ve had lately!  And the proof it’s not just the pac is the few times the pac hasn’t been awful the SER has still been an issue.  

But did the niño ever really couple though? Not saying that it diminishes the issue...as neutrals haven't been good either, but I'm not quite sure we can compare that to when we have a moderate or stronger niño since we haven't yet had one during this stretch.

[Ji]

This was a Nino!  

It’s not just the pacific. Im going to say this over and over and over. The pac is an easy scape goat since we are in a -pdo so we have had a predominant -pna.  But we snowed in past -pdo periods when we got blocking with a crap pacific.  A bad pac shouldn’t mean no hope no matter what else is going on!  Yes we snow way more with a good pac but I can cite a ton of snows historically with a pac every bit as bad as we’ve had lately!  And the proof it’s not just the pac is the few times the pac hasn’t been awful the SER has still been an issue.  

It’s the pacific. The ser isn’t just an independent feature. The pna has been negative all winter. It’s been negative for years. The pac jet had been on steroids for years…the center pac ridge won’t budge….weather goes from west to east…it’s always about the pac

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The pacific Hadley cell has expended and shifted north

As I mentioned seems everything,  cause and effect wise,  has shifted North in the last several years. Mostly effecting the mid lattitudes.. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Ji said:

It’s the pacific. The ser isn’t just an independent feature. The pna has been negative all winter. It’s been negative for years. The pac jet had been on steroids for years…the center pac ridge won’t budge….weather goes from west to east…it’s always about the pac

You don’t think the warm Atlantic is partially to blame?  

[jayyy]

Before my rant I’m about to unleash let me say I’m still hopeful for the period as a whole, especially the 15-20th. But so what. If we get one snow it doesn’t change anything I’m about to say…
 
Ridges are pumping heat way further north than historically typical. Not just the SER but that’s the one we care about most!  
 
The pacific Hadley cell has expended and shifted north. 
 
We have had numerous perfect track rainstorms the last 5 years. 
 
We have seen cold fail to push even when we have a flow off northern Canada because even a bit of maritime mix ruins it. We only get cold with direct cross polar flow lately. 
 
The pacific, gulf, and Atlantic basin SST are on fire.  
 
The mountains in the west will encourage troughing but as soon as systems eject that feel the heat from the gulf and amplify and cut. 
 
Blocking fails more often at our latitude because the ridging is stronger than historically normal shifting the typical mid latitude response north. 
 
Patterns that used to mitigate a bad pac lately fail to even dent the SER.  
 
None of this is speculative. I’m just describing what is ACTUALLY happening.  This isn’t predictive. This has already happened. It’s not change. It’s our current reality. 
 
But it seems to me there is something, that which must not be named, that can explain all of this!   

Being right about the million ways we can now fail must be exhausting man.

About to move to Lake Tahoe and call it a day


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[Jebman]

In keeping with the title of this topic lol....

I just could not resist, lol

[frd]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But did the niño ever really couple though?

No, and the cycle that year was for the MJO to hyper speed into the warmer phase.  

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Being right about the million ways we can now fail must be exhausting man.

About to move to Lake Tahoe and call it a day


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Palisades is getting slammed AGAIN, by yet ANOTHER massive snowstorm, to the tune of 2-4 feet of snow on top of what has already fallen in the past three months! I wanna move there too! I'd show them how to dig snow! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams