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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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24 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

EPS favors a NW track.  
 

image.thumb.png.0da25d71531f2da6b5b2e4e6ea0ad5cd.png

sadly the damn story of this year north west ends up to a apps cutter then to a lake cutter im tired of this and the south east ridge. one of my local news weather forecasts is saying for the so called cold period isnt cold at all the lowest temps they have for extended forecast is 43. meaning slightly below average but most of the highs are mid 40s to upper 40s and for the told frame of this storm they have mid 50s for southern PA. so yeah sadly if this goes north west its gonna start to torch

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7 minutes ago, Ruin said:

sadly the damn story of this year north west ends up to a apps cutter then to a lake cutter im tired of this and the south east ridge. one of my local news weather forecasts is saying for the so called cold period isnt cold at all the lowest temps they have for extended forecast is 43. meaning slightly below average but most of the highs are mid 40s to upper 40s and for the told frame of this storm they have mid 50s for southern PA. so yeah sadly if this goes north west its gonna start to torch

This time of year with blocking , if a low tracks south of us it will be cold enough to snow. Low 40s and sun turns into low 30s if there's a system taking a good track for us.

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Same ensembles who gave us a 40% Chance for 6 inches or more of snow 120 hours for the March 4th event

I like how your last post said you’re not worried it’ll go south at 00z and then you come back with the pessimism less than an hour later.

When the snow chances arise, so does the old Ji
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WB 12Z EPS…so if it reforms just in the right spot off the coast (far enough south and not inland) we can get wrap around and avoid being dry slotted.

Note:  we don’t do complicated well in the DMV.  Will need more luck than we have the last two years put together to pull this off.

 

CDE87E45-31CB-4DF9-87AE-C309E4F9B226.png

01C43D7A-716C-4A41-9895-675A46B76059.png

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50 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

How do you come to that conclusion?

They look nearly identical at h5 and the surface. The sensible weather outcome on both the 0z and 12z ens runs for this region are essentially the same.

Did I just repeat myself? Feels like I just repeated myself.

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Nice animated view of the 12z EPS that was posted in the NE thread.

 

958733E7-A9E6-41DC-95BC-376B4B5B65B3.gif

Unfortunately that's definitely a skip over look for the DMV. Further north would be a big storm.

Edit : need to get the low to redevelop off of Norfolk or even a little south if that.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Nice animated view of the 12z EPS that was posted in the NE thread.

 

958733E7-A9E6-41DC-95BC-376B4B5B65B3.gif

The transfer is just way, way too late. It's gotta transfer down in Kentucky area, not almost to Detroit, and it has to be slight farther to the southeast when it transfers. Give me something off Myrtle or at least OBX.

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