frd Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, LP08 said: This isn’t prime position to say the least. Persistence wins. One last chance near the 15 th to the 20 th. Incredible inland and far NW snowstorms the last three years. We need something to re-set the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, nj2va said: Remember when the Euro didn’t make big changes run to run? Pepperidge Farms remembers 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5050 low was much stronger at 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, frd said: Persistence wins. One last chance near the 15 th to the 20 th. Incredible inland and far NW snowstorms the last three years. We need something to re-set the pattern. Well, gotta see if El niño can get going. I'm not sure neutral is enough--we need a legit niño! (Although not a super one, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Remember when the Euro didn’t make big changes run to run? Gfs has been schooling it lately it seems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Gfs has been schooling it lately it seems. Except when the GFS shows snow over us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: This isn’t prime position to say the least. lol, seems like until we get the troughing out of the west, it's gonna be rough sledding for a snowstorm aside from a well-timed wave on the heels of a departing arctic airmass (the latter of which hasn't occurred except for a couple times all winter). On the bright side...spring training and March Madness incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 Maybe the models don't have a handle on the block and the complicated pattern. -Weenie theorem 1.12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I think Ji might see a sleet pellet with the Euro thump. This winter sucks ass. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, clskinsfan said: I think Ji might see a sleet pellet with the Euro thump. This winter sucks ass. No it doesn't. This winter is bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: No it doesn't. This winter is bad. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Not worried…it will shift south again at 00z. Mjo phase 8 will win out 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think Ji might see a sleet pellet with the Euro thump. This winter sucks ass. Post 7pm sunsets start next weekend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 5050 low was much stronger at 00z I would say it was a blip run if the CMC didn't look a little bit similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 it's clear that the relationship between the Pacific jet and S/W is extremely delicate and OP runs won't really show us much when the setup is this chaotic. the Pacific jet has also been undermodeled all year, which actually works in our favor this time. just wait for the EPS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, gotta see if El niño can get going. I'm not sure neutral is enough--we need a legit niño! (Although not a super one, lol) 18-19 Weak Nino didn't do good enough.. We had a -PNA that Winter and near +200dm in February! We need a healthy Moderate or Strong Nino imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18-19 Weak Nino didn't do good enough.. We had a -PNA that Winter and near +200dm in February! We need a healthy Moderate or Strong Nino imo. Yeah that was basically what I was saying, lol Neutral or weak won't do...gotta be legit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think Ji might see a sleet pellet with the Euro thump. This winter sucks ass. How many sleet pellets for Short Pump?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's clear that the relationship between the Pacific jet and S/W is extremely delicate and OP runs won't really show us much when the setup is this chaotic. the Pacific jet has also been undermodeled all year, which actually works in our favor this time. just wait for the EPS I’m just gonna wait until you say it’s over. Trying to be a bit more different about this. Now of that look is there come Monday then I am steering the ship into the ice berg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 How many sleet pellets for Short Pump?!The short pump joke was funny one time 5 years ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Cape storm no where to be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Why don't the Isobars line up with the darker shades of blue? What's the difference? Note: This was 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Tip's thoughts on Euro from his thread: 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Folks need(ed) to look at the whole run Meteorologically - and by that, I don't just mean all 10 days.. .but look outside the myopic low pressure and where it's doing whatever. The whole run is the hemisphere... I mean a lot of this is not intuitive. I get that. But the vortex in this run can't get N of Michigan in that look. There's no large scale circulation mode capable of moving it bodily into Canada. A region in which ( also ..) features a giant train wreck of constipated features. The main issue with this run that drives the difference between it and the 00z, is the handling of the western heights as it is being ejected E (behind..) That is flatter on this run. If/when those ridging structures return, this goes away from the Minn. squeeze back to just being an E expression. It's a not a terrible run if we know what to look for/recognize the surrounding constraints. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: ^p5…I would eat fecal matter for that one…without condiments. Brother, get a grip! You must have condiments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah that was basically what I was saying, lol Neutral or weak won't do...gotta be legit! February is the strongest Nino month. This is what the last El Nino February did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ji said: The short pump joke was funny one time 5 years ago Agreed! Kind of like that dude who threw temper tantrums when didn’t see digital snow 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 54 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why don't the Isobars line up with the darker shades of blue? What's the difference? Note: This was 0z The shading is the departures from normal. I think it's basically saying getting a low to track further south is less likely at this time of year. (I should edit this part to say likelihood is also dependent on the track/time of year, etc.) This chart is probably better if you don't care about the anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023030400&fh=186 (clearly showing a west track for this particular run). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why don't the Isobars line up with the darker shades of blue? What's the difference? Note: This was 0z The shade of blue(red) indicates the height anomaly for a given area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 54 minutes ago, frd said: Persistence wins. One last chance near the 15 th to the 20 th. Incredible inland and far NW snowstorms the last three years. We need something to re-set the pattern. Forever 10 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 EPS favors a NW track. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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