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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

This isn’t prime position to say the least.image.thumb.png.89cb8cd8663b2fe2e9fb5f3706f941f6.png

 

Persistence wins. One last chance near the 15 th to the 20 th.  Incredible inland and far NW snowstorms the last three years. We need something to re-set the pattern.  

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Just now, frd said:

 

Persistence wins. One last chance near the 15 th to the 20 th.  Incredible inland and far NW snowstorms the last three years. We need something to re-set the pattern.  

Well, gotta see if El niño can get going. I'm not sure neutral is enough--we need a legit niño! (Although not a super one, lol)

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

This isn’t prime position to say the least.image.thumb.png.89cb8cd8663b2fe2e9fb5f3706f941f6.png

lol, seems like until we get the troughing out of the west, it's gonna be rough sledding for a snowstorm aside from a well-timed wave on the heels of a departing arctic airmass (the latter of which hasn't occurred except for a couple times all winter).

On the bright side...spring training and March Madness incoming.

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, gotta see if El niño can get going. I'm not sure neutral is enough--we need a legit niño! (Although not a super one, lol)

18-19 Weak Nino didn't do good enough.. We had a -PNA that Winter and near +200dm in February! We need a healthy Moderate or Strong Nino imo. 

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7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's clear that the relationship between the Pacific jet and S/W is extremely delicate and OP runs won't really show us much when the setup is this chaotic. the Pacific jet has also been undermodeled all year, which actually works in our favor this time. just wait for the EPS

I’m just gonna wait until you say it’s over.  Trying to be a bit more different about this.  Now of that look is there come Monday then I am steering the ship into the ice berg

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Tip's thoughts on Euro from his thread:

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks need(ed) to look at the whole run Meteorologically - and by that, I don't just mean all 10 days.. .but look outside the myopic low pressure and where it's doing whatever.

The whole run is the hemisphere... I mean a lot of this is not intuitive. I get that. But the vortex in this run can't get N of Michigan in that look.  There's no large scale circulation mode capable of moving it bodily into Canada.  A region in which ( also ..) features a giant train wreck of constipated features.

The main issue with this run that drives the difference between it and the 00z, is the handling of the western heights as it is being ejected E (behind..)  That is flatter on this run.  If/when those ridging structures return, this goes away from the Minn. squeeze back to just being an E expression.  

It's a not a terrible run if we know what to look for/recognize the surrounding constraints. 

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54 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why don't the Isobars line up with the darker shades of blue? What's the difference?

Note: This was 0z

eps_z500a_namer_32.png

The shading is the departures from normal.  I think it's basically saying getting a low to track further south is less likely at this time of year. (I should edit this part to say likelihood is also dependent on the track/time of year, etc.)

This chart is probably better if you don't care about the anomalies: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023030400&fh=186 (clearly showing a west track for this particular run).

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