March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all

What does 204 look like? 

[anotherman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all

I appreciate your posts and share your enthusiasm. 

[Heisy]

lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all

Yea, but the lead isn’t. What we’re seeing is the pattern change and not necessarily a good storm threat because of the lead in. We’ll see what happens, we’re all rooting for the same thing.



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[Met1985]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all

Some people love to just bitch about things they cannot control... 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What does 204 look like? 

the whole evolution is wild. the S/W slides under the block and amplifies as the block decays. 50/50 in place. it's a great setup

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yea, but the lead isn’t. What we’re seeing is the pattern change and not necessarily a good storm threat because of the lead in. We’ll see what happens, we’re all rooting for the same thing.



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how? there's going to be mild height rises ahead of a trough like that, and there's a beastly 50/50 in place. not to mention the blocking

[brooklynwx99]

idk. I feel like people are focusing more on the +50 meter anomaly dying SE ridge instead of the other highly anomalous pattern drivers that will make more of a difference

sure, there could be an unfavorable outcome, but it would not be due to that... suppression or a lack of a vort entirely is more likely to screw this

I don't even mean to be argumentative. I'm just kinda confused

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the whole evolution is wild. the S/W slides under the block and amplifies as the block decays. 50/50 in place. it's a great setup

I'm not trying to poo poo on the window as I agree the 50/50, decaying block, etc are all good things - but for the MA latitude,, that energy appears a bit north of where we want it.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all

 

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

I appreciate your posts and share your enthusiasm. 

Same here, I appreciate you continuing to post and like your input, @brooklynwx99.  It's well-informed and useful.  While I get the snake-bitten attitude given how this winter has gone and how many times things have evaporated, the extreme cynicism is a bit much for me.  That EPS look, most any other time people in here would be going ga-ga about it, especially since it's been showing up for several runs now.  No, it's not a guarantee of anything but it sure as hell ups the probability.  I'm not even looking for a HECS, just a solid event with a couple of decently cold days even would be fine at this point.

[AtlanticWx]

analogs are important too, and 1960 being at the top of these analogs is encouraging

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'm not trying to poo poo on the window as I agree the 50/50, decaying block, etc are all good things - but for the MA latitude,, that energy appears a bit north of where we want it.  

If there's anything that I noticed, it was that. I don't know a ton, but just a quick glance tells me that, as depicted, we would run the risk of being just on the wrong side of things.

[AtlanticWx]

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'm not trying to poo poo on the window as I agree the 50/50, decaying block, etc are all good things - but for the MA latitude,, that energy appears a bit north of where we want it.  

given that we just need it to dig more and go further south, im not rlly worried at this juncture. when both the optimistic and the rarely optimistic people are excited, i think it's when we know we could get something big

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all

Yeah, but you still have the tic tac toe ridge blocking the blackslash thing.  We need that to flip the blue line mountain torque base state and then move toward that fucking squiggly line thing, which in turn will flip the yellow line on it's axis and give us 1958 redux.  See the "scream" dipole ridge up top?  need more spacing.  I'm not trying to be a deb, but that's just how I see it bro.  There's a random black guy surfing on the 582 line. 

 

[stormtracker]

Love  ya @Heisy

[stormtracker]

What a thread

[Interstate]

brooklynwx99... Thank you for everything you do on this board.

 

[jayyy]

my primary worry is a cold/dry pattern but i'm not sure if that worry is valid or not cause i haven't looked at ensembles much lately

Dry isn’t a worry right now. That jet is very active and will only get more active.


.

[AlexD1990]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, but you still have the tic tac toe ridge blocking the blackslash thing.  We need that to flip the blue line mountain torque base state and then move toward that fucking squiggly line thing, which in turn will flip the yellow line on it's axis and give us 1958 redux.  See the "scream" dipole ridge up top?  need more spacing.  I'm not trying to be a deb, but that's just how I see it bro.  There's a random black guy surfing on the 582 line. 

 

this might be the funniest thing I've seen in about 5 years on here.

[Heisy]

Love  ya [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention]

One for the ages. I failed photoshop class, while you obviously earned honors.


Im still right though! Verbatim it’s not an ideal look for the Mid-Atlantic, yet… key word, yet.

If we see changes on upcoming OP/EPS runs that make positive steps to a better winter storm I’ll be the first one on board…

Spot the difference

[Chris78]

Here's to hoping 18z makes everyone's desires and fantasies come true.

[jayyy]

Yea, but the lead isn’t. What we’re seeing is the pattern change and not necessarily a good storm threat because of the lead in. We’ll see what happens, we’re all rooting for the same thing.



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There is almost ALWAYS going to be a rise in heights ahead of a trough that big swinging east. That’s how the physics works. So long as the progression continues east, it’s precisely what we want to see at this range from the ensembles. Two frames later, the block and 50/50 helps annihilate the SER. It’s literally gone.

The success rate of this is certainly nowhere near 100%, but we’ve gotten our hopes up all winter long during patterns that were 10% as good as this. Praying for perfect timing and threading the needle when the 500mb setup screamed no chance in hell (PSU has gotten shit for pointing it out all winter) Tracking til the bitter end despite the writing being on the wall a week beforehand.

I don’t think anyone’s saying we’re guaranteed to see a HECS. BUT this is sure as heck the best 500mb setup and chance we’ve had in a LONG time. We don’t need perfect to score a nice storm. You rarely get a perfect setup. There’s always one or two factors that could potentially throw a wrench in the outcome, but the most important deterministic factors are on our side for once. This warrants excitement. No problem with being cautious though. It’s understandable given how this winter has gone for us.

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What a thread

Yours 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

One for the ages. I failed photoshop class, while you obviously earned honors.


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Nah, it's a shitty MSPaint my man.  Never learned photoshop

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Here's to hoping 18z makes everyone's desires and fantasies come true.

only if it shows the surfing black guy on the 582 line.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yours 

I feel like the thread has good bones at least 

[jayyy]

What a thread @stormtracker


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[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I feel like the thread has good bones at least 

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

analogs are important too, and 1960 being at the top of these analogs is encouraging

Another storm shows up in there too…

[Heisy]

Another storm shows up in there too…

Certainly a possibility, not arguing the potential isn’t there. My whole point was basically stating why the snow mean on the EPS favors Ne and Canada at the moment. This 12z suite put all its eggs in the lead wave.


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[CAPE]

Plenty of spread among the EPS members on low location for the 11-12th period. Not the strongest signal I have ever seen for a favorable MA coastal low track. Best signal for frozen in this window is to our north, again. Still time.