Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Like common, lol….I expect gfs to cave eventually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: South Dakota Ji: “What a disaster” Gorgeous country western South Dakota, this kind of snowstorm in the black hills would be awesome to experience - eastern SD not so much... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Like common, lol….I expect gfs to cave eventually . cmc was more depressing because it looks way better than GFS and still a rainy cutter for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Like common, lol….I expect gfs to cave eventually.CMC holds into primary too long, but overall progression of key pieces similar to euro. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 cmc was more depressing because it looks way better than GFS and still a rainy cutter for usYea but that type of progression with the key pieces is only way this will work. Maybe in future runs cmc has weaker energy eject east at a better latitude. It’s euro-like with main players. We could potentially work that with. GFS progression is just wildly different and has no shot at anything . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 It kind of seems like models are being "lazy" in my opinion, over amplifying the energy because it can't handle the heavily amplified new pattern.. maybe the EPO area will adjust on future model runs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 It’s is wild how different each model is. GFS has been the most “consistent” in its last 4 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GEFS is way less amped 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Gfs vs cmc vs euro. Spot the differences (hint, look near NW US), gfs will cave by 00z. . 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is way less amped Stronger +PNA Low and higher ridge into Alaska.. funny. At this point, something will need to be worked out between the two (SE ridge 2nd part). They are like slowly organizing an amplified pattern slowly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 More zonal like flow in the west coast on new gefs, loving it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: It’s is wild how different each model is. GFS has been the most “consistent” in its last 4 runs. But as far as I can see none of the solitons have a snow storm for most of us. Not yet anyway. GFS might cave but to what I wonder. Because the other 2 globals have some work ahead of them. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Ukie on side of cmc/euro etc, has weaker energy though…. Gfs will cave by tonight . 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 wow. GEFS is much, much improved due to the more zonal Pacific jet 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Wow gefs is way flatter than op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow. GEFS is much, much improved due to the more zonal Pacific jet Wow is right. Easy to see that difference. Thanks for all you do here. Hats off to you sir! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, Heisy said: Ukie on side of cmc/euro etc, has weaker energy though…. Gfs will cave by tonight . But even if the gfs goes to the others, it still likely isn't enough....for the lowlands anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 15 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: More zonal like flow in the west coast on new gefs, loving it But will it be enough? The question on everyone's mind attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GEFS is night and day. love seeing the trough link up with the confluence as well. block is farther N, leading to a lower chance of linking with the height rises ahead of the trough great run. this is a major step in the right direction 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But will it be enough? The question on everyone's mind attm The question is caving to what, 36 and rain. We need to win this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 ^ None of this translates to shovelable snow... I was promised 3 feet of snow by the CMC. I want my 3 feet! We're sitting here waiting for the GFS cave from a cool rainstorm to a cold rainstorm. Within this time frame, and not even just this year, when was the last time we saw significant improvements to something we actually want? Not just upper air, but surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow. GEFS is much, much improved due to the more zonal Pacific jet Orientation of the block is better, too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Congrats Midwest to Northeast. Having the 540 line all the way up in Canada isn't usually how we snow here without a strong surface high to the north. I think we'll need a better vort pass than that, but there's still time for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX Can we bring that 1039H to the Ontario/Quebec border (or just Ontario would be fine)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX We would get screwed with the jump. But I would be fine with that if we can build in some CAD beforehand and get a decent thump before the jump happens. We have had many decent events like that. Thump to dryslot is perfectly acceptable here as a way to snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: ^ None of this translates to shovelable snow... I was promised 3 feet of snow by the CMC. I want my 3 feet! We're sitting here waiting for the GFS cave from a cool rainstorm to a cold rainstorm. Within this time frame, and not even just this year, when was the last time we saw significant improvements to something we actually want? Not just upper air, but surface? This is the thing. Are we willing this into a 35 and cold pouring rain or can we somehow do nighttime upper 20s/low 30s and heavy snow rates? Tbd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 22 minutes ago, Solution Man said: The question is caving to what, 36 and rain. We need to win this time. We are getting back to the foundational issue of cold air. but I am not sure if that can be mitigated in March…or any month this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is the thing. Are we willing this into a 35 and cold pouring rain or can we somehow do nighttime upper 20s/low 30s and heavy snow rates? Tbd.. Friend, you may be over-estimating what powers we have as a forum... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Well the Pacific changes conditions today. By Monday, it's full on +pdo(+pna/-epo). Models seem to have been over initializing current conditions, so let's see if that changes anything. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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