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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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cmc was more depressing because it looks way better than GFS and still a rainy cutter for us

Yea but that type of progression with the key pieces is only way this will work. Maybe in future runs cmc has weaker energy eject east at a better latitude. It’s euro-like with main players. We could potentially work that with. GFS progression is just wildly different and has no shot at anything


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1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said:

It’s is wild how different each model is. GFS has been the most “consistent” in its last 4 runs. 

 But as far as I can see none of the solitons have a snow storm for most of us.  Not yet anyway.  GFS might cave but to what I wonder.  Because the other 2 globals have some work ahead of them.  Good times 

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None of this translates to shovelable snow...

I was promised 3 feet of snow by the CMC. I want my 3 feet! 

We're sitting here waiting for the GFS cave from a cool rainstorm to a cold rainstorm. Within this time frame, and not even just this year, when was the last time we saw significant improvements to something we actually want? Not just upper air, but surface?

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_anom-8568400.thumb.png.0b6fcae13a060cc00b4182e5b1f7d4d0.png

Can we bring that 1039H to the Ontario/Quebec border (or just Ontario would be fine)?

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looking like a redevelopment/Miller B type event here with a dying primary in the OH Valley and baggy isobars off OBX

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_anom-8568400.thumb.png.0b6fcae13a060cc00b4182e5b1f7d4d0.png

We would get screwed with the jump. But I would be fine with that if we can build in some CAD beforehand and get a decent thump before the jump happens. We have had many decent events like that. Thump to dryslot is perfectly acceptable here as a way to snow. 

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17 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

None of this translates to shovelable snow...

I was promised 3 feet of snow by the CMC. I want my 3 feet! 

We're sitting here waiting for the GFS cave from a cool rainstorm to a cold rainstorm. Within this time frame, and not even just this year, when was the last time we saw significant improvements to something we actually want? Not just upper air, but surface?

This is the thing. Are we willing this into a 35 and cold pouring rain or can we somehow do nighttime upper 20s/low 30s and heavy snow rates? Tbd..

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22 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

The question is caving to what, 36 and rain. We need to win this time.

We are getting back to the foundational issue of cold air.  but I am not sure if that can be mitigated in March…or any month this winter.  

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