psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Normal 850 temps are 0 in mid-march for DCA, as opposed to about -4 in Jan. So they need to be below normal to support snow as long as the BL is saturated and/or isothermal Good point…just because the average surface temp is 52 doesn’t mean you need a -20 airmass. I’d the avg 850 temp is near 0 a more mundane below avg airmass can work because during heavy precip the column from 700 down is typically close to isothermal. The reason avg surface temps are so high is when it’s sunny and we’re not in a cold regime temps will spike into the 60s and 70s easily in mid March. Even in a cold regime a sunny day will get into the upper 40s. But when it’s precipitating it still doesn’t take a super anomalous airmass to get cold enough to snow until closer to April. The main reason we lose snow in March is we lose marginal events (which we seem to have lost all the time anyways) and minor light events won’t work. How often do we get flush hits any time of year? But most of the time what would be a flush hit in January will still work in mid March. It’s just rare. But so is snow in January lately lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just had a chance to look at last nights Euro. Seems like a more legit scenario than what the GFS is spitting out. Why would the Storm just sit and rot in the midwest without coming east. It also helps that the Euro buries me. So yeah. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Just had a chance to look at last nights Euro. Seems like a more legit scenario than what the GFS is spitting out. Why would the Storm just sit and rot in the midwest without coming east. It also helps that the Euro buries me. So yeah. That’s exactly what I thought. If you get buried and I get rain…likely…then I can come visit..short drive…next time there is a more east solution and I get buried you come here…unlikely 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 How great is it that this would be within a couple days of the 30th anniversary of the storm of the century! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: How great is it that this would be within a couple days of the 30th anniversary of the storm of the century! It would be fun…and a new century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 Let's get the party started off right. I'll be drinking a...wait...is anybody else drinking at 10:20 am? Nevermind. Good luck and may the odds be in our favor. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Let's get the party started off right. I'll be drinking a...wait...is anybody else drinking at 10:20 am? Nevermind. Good luck and may the odds be in our favor.01-02 begat 02-03 so it will snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's get the party started off right. I'll be drinking a...wait...is anybody else drinking at 10:20 am? Nevermind. Good luck and may the odds be in our favor. I feel like this is apropos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's get the party started off right. I'll be drinking a...wait...is anybody else drinking at 10:20 am? Nevermind. Good luck and may the odds be in our favor. Does flat diet coke at the office count? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's get the party started off right. I'll be drinking a...wait...is anybody else drinking at 10:20 am? Nevermind. Good luck and may the odds be in our favor. @stormtrackeryou have the mic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Does flat diet coke at the office count? Diet, eww. But as long as it's coke, I'll allow it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's get the party started off right. I'll be drinking a...wait...is anybody else drinking at 10:20 am? Nevermind. Good luck and may the odds be in our favor. I’ll take the over on Scraff already being 2 drinks in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 For this run, I'll be comparing with it's 6z run and the Euro 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: I’ll take the over on Scraff already being 2 drinks in. My man! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 One thing in our favor is the MJO. First time it forecasted to go into more favorable phases and held. There were a lot of skepticism two weeks ago… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 One thing in our favor is the MJO. First time it forecasted to go into more favorable phases and held. There were a lot of skepticism two weeks ago…That’s why euro made more sense the gfs. Of course the best model this year is the non snowy model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Active STJ building here Rain or snow, it's going to be a wild time period with so much energy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6z Gfs missed South with the best threat. Good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 Ok at 60 hours, no changes with the 6z GFS, Compared to Euro, the GFS is faster with the trof/sw out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 Ag 69, GFS has the trof/sw almost completely over land (cali) while the Euro still has the base of the trof over the pacific, positively tilted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 wet Could really be an amplified solution down the line. Intuition is that the SE ridge would have to get squashed with such a favorable upper latitude pattern, unless the upper latitudes change on models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok at 60 hours, no changes with the 6z GFS, Compared to Euro, the GFS is faster with the trof/sw out west. faster in ejecting it or faster in burying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 6z matches up well with the 12z GFS so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: faster in ejecting it or faster in burying it? ejecting 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GFS is slightly improved. notice the lower heights out in the E Pac at the same latitude of the trough on the WC and higher heights towards AK this is a shift towards more Pac jet interaction and the ECMWF solution 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ejecting The main s/w we are looking at is swinging down and just barely off the coast of WA. Differences, if any, would start to show up in the window of 114-126 hours. Currently at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 The 12z icon and 6z gfs look nothing alike at same time (156 hours) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 So at 99 hours, there is slightly less ridging in front than 6z. Still much different than the Euro at the same time. Euro has a broader trof and less deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 Euro and GFS are different at 105, so doubt this looks like the Euro. Still less ridging in front than 6z tho...only slight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 GOnna stop comparing the Euro, they are nothing alike in the west so far. 12z is digging less and has a more shallow trof than the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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