jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 ECMWF is actually much improved… the stronger Pacific jet might allow for the S/W to roll under the block changes in the E Pac are significantThe WC piece pushing east was delayed but not denied says 00z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 So I’ll admit I was way wrong with euro, thing was the main wave was stronger but euro did something unlike GFS, it retrograded the rest of the energy back into the PAC. This is way to win I guess and was what some models were showing yesterday etc… . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 this was not what I was expecting, to say the least. wow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ECMWF is actually much improved… the stronger Pacific jet might allow for the S/W to roll under the block changes in the E Pac are significant Drastic improvement at the surface as well with a low developing in NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Drastic improvement at the surface as well with a low developing in NC.CAD signature and snow falling away from the coast in this frame too. Way different indeed. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Not sure I’d say rarely historically. Now… Lately? Nothing pans out lol. The MA and the 1,000 ways to fail - PSUs new book. 1,000 ways to fail in the east, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Changes to rain i81 corridor and east with a 980s SLP over C VA at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: Changes to rain BR and east with a 980s SLP over C VA at 198 Slow moving low that jumps to the coast & exits east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 lol 983 in perfect spot and its raining in DC at 210... weak CCB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 FInally gets going at 216.. but its too late for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 tbh, that CCB from 210 on is really weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 FInally gets going at 216.. but its too late for us… close but no cigar. Much improved though!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 it’s really coming down to seeing how much of an impact the Pacific jet can have on the S/W more of an impact and you flatten the +PNA, kick the S/W under the block, and you get this kind of solution. and if less, well… the worst thing is that models are HORRIBLE with that kind of stuff. good luck getting that resolved 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 The low continues to crawl to the north & east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 tbh, that CCB from 210 on is really weakWe’ll it’s a bowling ball that has already peaked. Need a few ticks South and east if euro is to be believed, just hope the pac evolution is correct. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Interior special. 6+ NW of 95. 12+ inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Doubt that is snow at all for DC metro from 210 on... its 36 degrees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 it’s really coming down to seeing how much of an impact the Pacific jet can have on the S/W more of an impact and you flatten the +PNA, kick the S/W under the block, and you get this kind of solution. and if less, well… the worst thing is that models are HORRIBLE with that kind of stuff. good luck getting that resolvedSuspect we’ll have more clarity in 48 hours or so. Day 4/5 seems to be the sweet spot this winter for when models drastically tighten the envelope. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Still going at hour 222 and the low seems to back to the west a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 This run is a N MD/I81 corridor and west special... i 95 is cold rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Doubt that is snow at all for DC metro from 210 on... its 36 degrees lolLikely not. Some snow there for my area for sure but I know better than to bank on backside shenanigans. Still 7-8 days out though so I’m not too pressed on thermals / exact details at this range. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Still going at hour 222 and the low seems to back to the west a bit.The low definitely is SW of where it was in the prior frame. Weird. That outcome is sooo different than OP 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Well, as we always say, ensembles should be interesting to see shortly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 PAC differences 117 hours GFS vs euro. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Warning level event just to the northwest of I-95 this run. Northern MD crushed this run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Warning level event just to the northwest of I-95 this run. Northern MD crushed this run.Obviously not the final solution but I dig the changes run over run. Too bad the storms end is still 10 days out lol Edit - 10:1 map, which is unlikely to occur, so one can cut this by at least 1/3 if we’re being realistic with temps. Not that clown maps really mean much at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, jayyy said: 12-15” IMBY verbatim. Obviously not the final solution but I dig the changes run over run. Too bad the storms end is still 10 days out lol . Long way to go. The Euro & Canadian are both drastically different than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Well, as we always say, ensembles should be interesting to see shortlyI’d honestly laugh if the EPS trended the opposite way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I’d honestly laugh if the EPS trended the opposite way nope. the 00z EPS has a much more zonally oriented Pacific jet… this should lead to the same positive changes that we saw on the OP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Long way to go. The Euro & Canadian are both drastically different than the GFS.No doubt. There’s a very long way to go. Snow maps at this range are 100% irrelevant but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t enjoy seeing pink over my house for a moment there. Yeesh, that storm slowed WAAAAAY down. If this were the not so distant past, those are the exact models I’d want on my side at range… but we all know what’s up this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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