psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ji said: I hate the period after. It's too late Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk the climo difference between March 11-12 and March 15-16 isn’t that drastic. But it doesn’t matter…regardless of a degrading climo the setup has to be right. If it’s not it doesn’t matter what the date is. A good setup has a better chance March 15 than a bad setup March 10. Besides didn’t you get like 6” on March 20th in 2018? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 the climo difference between March 11-12 and March 15-16 isn’t that drastic. But it doesn’t matter…regardless of a degrading climo the setup has to be right. If it’s not it doesn’t matter what the date is. A good setup has a better chance March 15 than a bad setup March 10. Besides didn’t you get like 6” on March 20th in 2018? I think I woke up with 6...it snowed all day and I ended up with 6Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I do still like the period after. I was never that optimistic for the lead wave. My rant is more just how we blame the pac by default even when it’s not the pac. what do you like in the period after, it seems like the -EPO has faded and the blocking eroded? even with lower heights(im asking a genuine question btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 March 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 the climo difference between March 11-12 and March 15-16 isn’t that drastic. But it doesn’t matter…regardless of a degrading climo the setup has to be right. If it’s not it doesn’t matter what the date is. A good setup has a better chance March 15 than a bad setup March 10. Besides didn’t you get like 6” on March 20th in 2018? 10-11th period is obviously over. You gotta hand it to the GFS. It’s been good lately at sniffing changes in pattern before other models. Even with tonight’s storm it was the first to bring it well west. Yea it sometimes still drops too much snow in WAA areas etc. I feel like it’s handling the pac better than other models for whatever reason. Euro/EPS no longer king anymore, upgrades to GFS really showing this year. 10 years ago GFS would be showing this storm to be a HECS right now. Moving focus beyond that, we fail whatever, but my chips have been all in for 14-21st and that hasn’t changed for me. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: what do you like in the period after, it seems like the -EPO has faded and the blocking eroded? even with lower heights(im asking a genuine question btw) Pattern evolution. Mjo getting towards phase 1. Pac isn’t hostile. Cold established. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 10-11th period is obviously over. You gotta hand it to the GFS. It’s been good lately at sniffing changes in pattern before other models. Even with tonight’s storm it was the first to bring it well west. Yea it sometimes still drops too much snow in WAA areas etc. I feel like it’s handling the pac better than other models for whatever reason. Euro/EPS no longer king anymore, upgrades to GFS really showing this year. 10 years ago GFS would be showing this storm to be a HECS right now. Moving focus beyond that, we fail whatever, but my chips have been all in for 14-17th and that hasn’t changed for me. .And I also wonder if 18z GEFS didn’t initialize with the same data as the OP because the 00z absolutely caved. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: 10-11th period is obviously over. You gotta hand it to the GFS. It’s been good lately at sniffing changes in pattern before other models. Even with tonight’s storm it was the first to bring it well west. Yea it sometimes still drops too much snow in WAA areas etc. I feel like it’s handling the pac better than other models for whatever reason. Euro/EPS no longer king anymore, upgrades to GFS really showing this year. 10 years ago GFS would be showing this storm to be a HECS right now. Moving focus beyond that, we fail whatever, but my chips have been all in for 14-21st and that hasn’t changed for me. . There are Drastic differences between the 0z Canadian & 0z GFS for next weekend. We are far from a resolution at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 There are also Drastic differences between the Canadian ensemble & GEFS for next weekend. Again, we are far from a resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Best case scenario our wave 1 is NOT a Midwest / plains superstorm that simply cuts to our west, the boundary is subsequently dragged south, our 500mb pattern evolves, and we score on 1-2 waves between 14-21st. So long as wave 1 doesn’t become a monster that drops 50” in the heartland, and evolves somewhat similarly to todays storm, we should hopefully be prime for the follow up. Ensembles are still worlds apart. OPs are flip flopping all over the place run to run. More likely than not that we don’t cash in on wave 1, but I think it’s also safe to say that when the envelop ranges from a coastal higher (Canadian) to a low in Indiana (GFS), we also don’t have our final solution anywhere close to nailed down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: There are also Drastic differences between the Canadian ensemble & GEFS for next weekend. Again, we are far from a resolution. what was the CMCE/GEPS showing at the same time during 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: March 10. Football was never there though, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Does anyone know how well the globals incorporate forecasted MJO values? Or do they just use the initial values. We are just pulling out of the null into 7 which is still warm, how well does the modeling “see” that we are heading into 8/1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Does anyone know how well the globals incorporate forecasted MJO values? Or do they just use the initial values. We are just pulling out of the null into 7 which is still warm, how well does the modeling see that we are heading into 8/1? The plot predictions are generated by the same models so… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Best case scenario our wave 1 is a non Midwest / plains superstorm that cuts to our west, the boundary is subsequently dragged south, our 500mb pattern evolves, and we score on 1-2 waves between 14-21st. Forgive me but...when was the last time a boundary being dragged behind a wave actually worked out? I hear it here all the time, but I honestly can't remember the last time it actually worked! It just sounds more like something that rarely happens but used as weenieism, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Does anyone know how well the globals incorporate forecasted MJO values? Or do they just use the initial values. We are just pulling out of the null into 7 which is still warm, how well does the modeling see that we are heading into 8/1?I assume they “do their best” to emulate forecasted condition changes, but I made the point earlier that initialization also matters. If models are initializing in a block-less, phase 7 pattern, I have to assume it’s POSSIBLE that they adjust over the coming days as the MJO transitions into phase 8. A strong phase 8 at that. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: what was the CMCE/GEPS showing at the same time during 12z? Sorry, but Weatherbell at 12z didn’t load anything beyond hour 189 for the Canadian ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 It will be interesting to see as we get closer to next weekend if we see a stronger response in the modeling to the significant change in the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Forgive me but...when was the last time a boundary being dragged behind a wave actually worked out? I hear it here all the time, but I honestly can't remember the last time it actually worked! It just sounds more like something that rarely happens but used as weenieism, lol January 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The plot predictions are generated by the same models so… Do you find that there is a brief lag of a few days for the effects of a MJO phase change to impact a weather pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Forgive me but...when was the last time a boundary being dragged behind a wave actually worked out? I hear it here all the time, but I honestly can't remember the last time it actually worked, lolWhat do you mean by worked out? The boundary naturally gets pulled further south directly after a wave passes through. The problem is we haven’t had a mechanism in place to maintain lower heights / keep the boundary in place and the SER continues to donkey punch us into submission because of it. With a block and a 50\50 forecasted to evolve, heights would remain lower in the east and allow the boundary to come south and stay south. The caveat to this result is if the west coast trough amplifies / stalls instead of ejecting east, pumping heights in the SE ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I grew up 30mi north of NYC in the lower Hudson valley and can recall countless wave 2 scores after initial storms cut to our west or directly overhead. Of course, the boundary didn’t need to push as far south up there in comparison to our area and they can also score even when the boundary push is temporary. Transition storms are fairly regular for that area. Our latitude requires the mechanisms necessary to 1) push the boundary further south and 2) keep it in place (blocking and a 50/50) which is why it doesn’t pan out nearly as often as where I grew up. It’s not an easy feat for our area, but if we get the -EPO, -NAO, 50/50 combo, it certainly helps our chances. It’s certainly happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 00z euro / eps time …Hopefully it doesn’t attempt to link the block with the SE ridge like some other models are hinting at. The block seems to be trending south on some models (too far south) and it ends up overwhelming the pattern by linking with the SE ridge. All as the west coast trough gets stuck and amplifies along the WC. That’s the evolution that destroys our potential pattern and gives us a similar result to when our Christmas time pattern change fail happened. Hopefully it’s just the models picking up on current conditions but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 00z euro / eps time …Hopefully it doesn’t attempt to link the block with the SE ridge like some other models are hinting at. The block seems to be trending south on some models (too far south) and it ends up overwhelming the pattern by linking with the SE ridge. All as the west coast trough gets stuck and amplifies along the WC. That’s the evolution that destroys our potential pattern and gives us a similar result to when our Christmas time pattern change fail happened. Hopefully it’s just the models picking up on current conditions but who knows. Can tell already euro will be way amped, stronger wave. Writing is on the wall folks…. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 33 minutes ago, jayyy said: I grew up 30mi north of NYC in the lower Hudson valley and can recall countless wave 2 scores after initial storms cut to our west or directly overhead. Of course, the boundary didn’t need to push as far south up there in comparison to our area and they can also score even when the boundary push is temporary. Transition storms are fairly regular for that area. Our latitude requires the mechanisms necessary to 1) push the boundary further south and 2) keep it in place (blocking and a 50/50) which is why it doesn’t pan out nearly as often as where I grew up. It’s not an easy feat for our area, but if we get the -EPO, -NAO, 50/50 combo, it certainly helps our chances. It’s certainly happened before. Not an easy feat as in...a low percentage thing that rarely happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Not an easy feat as in...a low percentage thing that rarely happens?Not sure I’d say rarely historically. Now… Lately? Nothing pans out lol. The MA and the 1,000 ways to fail - PSUs new book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 ECMWF is actually much improved… the stronger Pacific jet might allow for the S/W to roll under the block changes in the E Pac are significant 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 this is actually really close to a big solution with the confluence parked over the NE US… the block overhead should force this east i know we haven’t seen exactly what we’ve wanted today, but this run just shows how extremely touchy everything is out west and how prone it all is to change. it’s not an aphorism that things will change… it’s almost a certainty with this amplified and as finicky of a setup as this one 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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