stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 There are some differences in the H5 maps out west that you can clearly see around 180hr, but nothing that seems will change our fate. S/W energy is much broader and slightly slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The changes on the gfs at 156 vs last 4 runs back to 0z are just head scratching 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 oof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is better than gfs but not sure it will get er done. It looks like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, Chris78 said: It looks like the GFS Not as bad yet but clearly headed that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I’d say wait till the ens but I have a feeling they will move towards the op esp since op gfs seems to have latched onto a new idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The changes on the gfs at 156 vs last 4 runs back to 0z are just head scratching But unfortunately the last 3 straight have dug that damned shortwave well into the southwest to varying degrees. And the Euro has done the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 @CAPE this is what I mean. Look at the location of the pacific trough/ridge alignment. This makes sense. Aleutian ridge. Trough should be in the west with a SER but look what happens when the pac flips the the exact opposite pattern as the mjo gets into phase 8. Aleutian trough and… The conus trough ridge alignment remains unaltered. but wait check this out… the pac trough is even slightly east of ideal there…the ridge east if it is begging squeezes to death because the trough still refuses to exit the west. We need to stop blaming the pac. Yes 75% of the time it’s been in a bad case state. But that’s not unheard of. The reason we’re getting such atrocious results is even when the pac is altered it’s made no difference, the wavelengths just adjust however they need to accommodate the SER. It’s almost as if the TNH is more dominant here not the central pacific. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 Low cuts to effin MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Let’s get rid of this block, pump a ridge, and go for warm/dry for March and April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 CMC at least gives some light reacharound err wraparound love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GFS wants to try and do something after 216 but thermals are destroyed so nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 It’s been a pukey evening….can we please stop being shitty to our red taggers who provide insightful information. If you’re over chasing snow, then gtfo of the thread. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 @CAPE what’s even the pacific answer??? If that trough shifts any further east yes it would force the ridge into the west but it would also flood N Amer with pac puke so we would end up with a full continent ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 Well, another bad run. See you at 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 CMC trying to setup the Ides of March storm at h5 GFS looks interesting as well. Still have a 10-day window...maybe shaving 1 or 2 days off the front of that soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, another bad run. See you at 12z Thanks for the PBP. Still not out of time yet. Loving the analysis in this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GEFS is worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 In all my 40+ years of meteorological experience I've never seen the 500 mb Pattern behave irt the NAO blocking continually hooking up with the SER.... It's just hard to believe what we're witnessing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I don't think the gfs solution will hold Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 @psuhoffman I’m not even sure its solely the pacific anymore like I thought it was back in Dec-Jan. Someone raised a good hypothesis earlier in this thread - what if [X factor] is responsible for amping waves out of the W too much too soon, instead of digging or sliding to the S of us? It makes sense if we consider the warmer gulf waters + carribean high supplying warm moist air to any wave that rolls over the rockies. So one of the two things has to happen - laws of physics - a) move further N/W across the baroclinic boundary that was/is being pushed north, or b) amplifies into a huge monster which isn’t good for us either because we don’t want an early phaser for a MA snow. What would it take for a third thing to happen? C) hold a ridge over the west, cool the Caribbean waters a tad, and get something to slide S of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, Ji said: I don't think the gfs solution will hold Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk it is a possibillity that models are downplaying the influence the MJO signal has downstream, but obv I wouldn't hold my breath on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC trying to setup the Ides of March storm at h5 GFS looks interesting as well. Still have a 10-day window...maybe shaving 1 or 2 days off the front of that soon. I do still like the period after. I was never that optimistic for the lead wave. My rant is more just how we blame the pac by default even when it’s not the pac. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 yeah a lot worse, trough digs more because of more ridging in pacific reaching lower lattiudes which amplifies the trough downstream and creates a more meridonal flow on the WC as well SER linkup with the fake block, not good trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I do still like the period after. I was never that optimistic for the lead wave. My rant is more just how we blame the pac by default even when it’s not the pac. I hate the period after. It's too late Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 sigh this is just sad lol big ass flip flop from cold east warmer west to now im many models warm east powerful south east ridge and us torching to the west being cold again with storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: yeah a lot worse, trough digs more because of more ridging in pacific reaching lower lattiudes which amplifies the trough downstream and creates a more meridonal flow on the WC as well SER linkup with the fake block, not good trends Well maybe that big 50/50 will stick and manage to cool those waters a good bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: @psuhoffman I’m not even sure its solely the pacific anymore like I thought it was back in Dec-Jan. Someone raised a good hypothesis earlier in this thread - what if [X factor] is responsible for amping waves out of the W too much too soon, instead of digging or sliding to the S of us? It makes sense if we consider the warmer gulf waters + carribean high supplying warm moist air to any wave that rolls over the rockies. So one of the two things has to happen - laws of physics - a) move further N/W across the baroclinic boundary that was/is being pushed north, or b) amplifies into a huge monster which isn’t good for us either because we don’t want an early phaser for a MA snow. What would it take for a third thing to happen? C) hold a ridge over the west, cool the Caribbean waters a tad, and get something to slide S of us. Whenever I bring it up some folks go nuts but I guess my point is that there is SOMETHING going on and “it’s the pac” doesn’t fully cover 100% of it. I think you’re putting a different spin on my “the SER is acting like a cause more than an effect sometimes. I think it makes perfect logical sense if the heat added to the equation from the STJ off the pac combined with the gulf then Atlantic all combine to create a feedback loop that’s horrible for us. I agree on the speculation this would amp systems out west earlier. We are about to see if a high amplitude mjo phase 8/1 can overcome this feedback loop. If it can’t…oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Gefs still looks much different from gfsSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Gefs still looks much different from gfsSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkBut it's trending wrong waySent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now