Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not sure I saw it posted but 18z eps trended worst. More ridging and stronger energy coming into play…control worst than 12z… hard to put much stock into the GEFS . It is the most minute of difference I think I've ever seen 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: One day, maybe not this year, but sometime in the future we’ll get one of those epic runs with an event around day 6-7 that actually trends the right way. The pain is worth the glory. It snowed at my house today for like 15 minutes, just those few flakes made me want a snowstorm so much more. . Seriously, not being a deb, but when was the last time we went from a crud modeled event and backed into something significant? 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Also, side question… and I know it tip toes near the “don’t talk about this” topic, but do the effects of AGW make it harder for these storms out west to stay relatively weak as they attempt to traverse east? Making it harder for them to swing under the block?Larger temp gradient = more amplification = we’re in trouble. Just a random thought. I know it’s silly to correlate such a topic to specific weather events, but the trend has been undeniable all season, which is a larger sample size. These SW out west just strengthen and dig and refuse to slide east, which inevitably screws things up @ H5 on our side of the country. Or is that more of a product of the Niña, unhelpful PAC, Aleutian situation, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 All this avocado and egg hate today, I swear!! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: The problem I see here is the rest of the data we have is going the same direction. We didn’t have one model run today outside maybe the JMA that gave us snow with a decent H5 SLP track. Even the 18z GEFS which we seem to be putting all our money on still favors interior based on the snow mean. When the OP GFS came in way amped last week with this current system we all thought it was out to lunch too… . This is the most telling aspect....nothing at all moving TOWARDS a good solution...everything either stayed the course or stepped back. Agreed we need some big changes over the next 24 hours. Eta: staying the course isn't a bad thing at this range but would be nice to see something, anything trend notably to the good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: All this avocado and egg hate today, I swear!! When I worked at whole foods we used to put a poached egg inside of a half avocado on our hot bar (dating myself here haven't worked in that context in many years). Maybe we need a mix of the two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: When I worked at whole foods we used to put a poached egg inside of a half avocado on our hot bar (dating myself here haven't worked in that context in many years). Maybe we need a mix of the two. Egg on avocado toast, maybe?? (ETA: I actually got one of those Squishable avocado pillow things for my daughter years ago, she thought it was overly cute! And it is. She named it "Guaqui" LOL!!!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 P16 and call it a winter.Helluva signal for New York and NE. I guess if this time period were to fail, which who knows if it will, it would be because we’re too far south and NYC to BOS sees an epic to historic winter finale. Think that’s always been the far more likely fail scenario than suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Who else is ready for a start of a good trend at 0z?? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Who else is ready for a start of a good trend at 0z?? Hell yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Meanwhile what's happening outside right now surrrre looked good 8 days ago...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Egg on avocado toast, maybe?? (ETA: I actually got one of those Squishable avocado pillow things for my daughter years ago, she thought it was overly cute! And it is. She named it "Guaqui" LOL!!!) I'm gonna start charging royalties for every avocado reference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'm gonna start charging royalties for every avocado reference LOL!!! But shouldn't @Ralph Wiggum get the royalties? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 The biggest model run of the century @stormtrackeryou have the mic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: LOL!!! But shouldn't @Ralph Wiggum get the royalties? Nein! I could've sworn I said it first when I mentioned something on a model run looked like an avocado! Will check the history, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 @Always in Zugzwang Here it is, lol On 12/13/2022 at 5:42 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Avocado cold front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is the most telling aspect....nothing at all moving TOWARDS a good solution...everything either stayed the course or stepped back. Agreed we need some big changes over the next 24 hours. Eta: staying the course isn't a bad thing at this range but would be nice to see something, anything trend notably to the good. the march 3 storm was trending very favorably at this time and then switched up at a 5/6 day lead time. imo, ur trends usually always reverse at 5/6 days and we shouldn't be complaining for something that hasn't even reached the pacific shore yet. it only fully comes onshore at hour 144, please don't make presumptions when our main piece is LEAGUES away from being on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Fresh alcohol drink ✅ THC ✅ Positive attitude ✅ Randy PBP ✅ 0z models runs most important in our life ✅ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nein! I could've sworn I said it first when I mentioned something on a model run looked like an avocado! Will check the history, lol Bro, take the avocado. I just want the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just saw where parts of Cali have had 7 straight days of recorded FEET of snow daily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 First up, the ICON. You can see at 120 it is already burying the energy out West compared with 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Ugh…no icon on TT for the pregame warmup…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just saw where parts of Cali have had 7 straight days of recorded FEET of snow daily! Shiat happens. Spring “crop” could be in jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 ICON really pumping heights out ahead of the WC energy at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON really pumping heights out ahead of the WC energy at 126. This all sounds very good. Bring it home Ralph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: This all sounds very good. Bring it home Ralph It's not good thru 132, believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's not good thru 132, believe me. Just run to run noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Energy is more gefs-like on the ICON...weaker but farther N...slowly trudging east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: Wth is the euro-para? And this is for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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