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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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In the Baltimore area there have been 102 snows storms with one-day totals exceeding 6 inches.  Of those, 21 occurred in March or April. 
Of the 21, 12 occurred during the first 10 days of March, 6 during the next 10 days, and 3 occurred on the 21st or later. 
In the DC area there have been 79 snow storms with one-day totals exceeding 6 inches.  Of those 10 occurred in March. 
Of those 10, 4 occurred during the first 10 days, 3 during the next 10 days, and 3 on the 21st or later. 
The Palm Sunday storm topped the chart at both locations (22 and 11.5 inches, respectively). 
 
Our window is short. 
 
I dont think there is anyone on here that doesn't know that. That being said, your statistics do show that it is possible to have a large snow even this late in the season.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

All the whining about the Gfs and at 300 hours we simply needed this adjustment to get a snowstorm. 
 

D1F406F8-4A88-49E5-9AA2-3F7899DB62B4.jpeg

but the fact we didnt get it that 1/2 mm adjustment and continue to struggle to get blue is very telling and extremely alarming...ill post more about my thoughts on this in your "is it ever going to snow again:

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Just now, mattie g said:

I think I speak for many when I say I don't quite know why we're calling on the Good Shepherd with this look.

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

  • vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
  • decaying -NAO over north central Canada
  • highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
  • ridging building upstream

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8449600.thumb.png.f8156510e2733142ced360be32231e8b.png

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there's pretty much everything here for a major storm
  • vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
  • decaying -NAO over north central Canada
  • highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
  • ridging building upstream
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8449600.thumb.png.f8156510e2733142ced360be32231e8b.png

I’ll be in the minority here and don’t want to get flamed, but I just don’t agree. It kind of looks like a smoothed out version of the OP. The lead up to that wave still has too much Ridge link up that’s why the lead wave on all the OP models and ensembles favors snow into the Midwest and lakes. The only hope is for a low to develop on the backside of that trough, a miller B. Looks like EPS does that but mostly favors NE. Not trying to be negative. We’re still far out I just think the devil is in the details here…


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1 minute ago, Heisy said:


I’ll be in the minority here and don’t want to get flamed, but I just don’t agree. It kind of looks like a smoothed out version of the OP. The lead up to that wave still has too much Ridge link up that’s why the lead wave on all the OP models and ensembles favors snow into the Midwest and lakes. The only hope is for a low to develop on the backside of that trough, a miller B. Looks like EPS does that but mostly favors NE. Not trying to be negative. We’re still far out I just think the devil is in the details here…


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I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box

I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved

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24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box

I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved

meteorology > taking what models say verbatim

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I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box
I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved

My point illustrated like a 6 year old….. we need better push from “X” to allow more spacing for “L” because of the ridge linkup leading into the event. 12z run yesterday did this. Todays eps favors snow in NE and lakes because of the spacing issue between X and L here… long way to change this and allow better amplification for backside low…
d038ace0c2d96d5d797bb4c7b796c4cf.jpg
b217ea48f2ede12b1ebee3871f55b32b.jpg


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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

I need to see blue--over my backyard. Not 500mb blue....not 2temp anomoly blue...not 850 anomoly blue---i need to see mutha fookin snow blue on the model map...over my yard. 

Preferably blue on the radar w/ an AmWX storm OBS thread updating at 1 page per minute. We can dream..

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

I need to see blue--over my backyard. Not 500mb blue....not 2temp anomoly blue...not 850 anomoly blue---i need to see mutha fookin snow blue on the model map...over my yard. 

lmao it's like 8 days out. the ensembles are way more important than the OP

the OP is basically betting on one ENS member to give you snow. makes no sense at this range

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20 minutes ago, Heisy said:


My point illustrated like a 6 year old….. we need better push from “X” to allow more spacing for “L” because of the ridge linkup leading into the event. 12z run yesterday did this. Todays eps favors snow in NE and lakes because of the spacing issue between X and L here… long way to change this and allow better amplification for backside low…
d038ace0c2d96d5d797bb4c7b796c4cf.jpg
b217ea48f2ede12b1ebee3871f55b32b.jpg


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I get what you mean, but I feel like you're missing the forest for the trees here. the longwave setup is almost perfect. will it produce? we can't say that yet, but this pattern gives us a much, much better shot than normal

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao it's like 8 days out. the ensembles are way more important than the OP

the OP is basically betting on one ENS member to give you snow. makes no sense at this range

sure it does--the GFS saw the March 4 event 8 days away and hardly wavered

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