brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 GEPS is gorgeous. -NAO decays, +PNA moves east, and the S/W amplifies with the 50/50 in place 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 In the Baltimore area there have been 102 snows storms with one-day totals exceeding 6 inches. Of those, 21 occurred in March or April. Of the 21, 12 occurred during the first 10 days of March, 6 during the next 10 days, and 3 occurred on the 21st or later. In the DC area there have been 79 snow storms with one-day totals exceeding 6 inches. Of those 10 occurred in March. Of those 10, 4 occurred during the first 10 days, 3 during the next 10 days, and 3 on the 21st or later. The Palm Sunday storm topped the chart at both locations (22 and 11.5 inches, respectively). Our window is short. I dont think there is anyone on here that doesn't know that. That being said, your statistics do show that it is possible to have a large snow even this late in the season.Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 @JiThe Gfs pretty much does what we want, sets up a March 58 type storm, except it transfers the primary to central VA instead of off the coast. At that range it’s noise between that and a big snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 All the whining about the Gfs and at 300 hours we simply needed this adjustment to get a snowstorm. 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Would be hilarious to get a Top 5 snow event in March after getting shut out during prime climo. Some 18" paste bomb that wrecks everything. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 my primary worry is a cold/dry pattern but i'm not sure if that worry is valid or not cause i haven't looked at ensembles much lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: my primary worry is a cold/dry pattern but i'm not sure if that worry is valid or not cause i haven't looked at ensembles much lately That’s the least of my worries at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 20 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: my primary worry is a cold/dry pattern but i'm not sure if that worry is valid or not cause i haven't looked at ensembles much lately Warm/wet all day. The trends don't end until they do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Fun way to fail on the euro today. Hard to buy euro at all considering other models not bringing energy eastward. . 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 we are gonna see some wild op run solutions so I guess we just buckle up and get in bed with the ensemble cast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 jesus christ 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: All the whining about the Gfs and at 300 hours we simply needed this adjustment to get a snowstorm. but the fact we didnt get it that 1/2 mm adjustment and continue to struggle to get blue is very telling and extremely alarming...ill post more about my thoughts on this in your "is it ever going to snow again: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: jesus christ hour 192...getting closer...can't wait to see what this map looks like come Sunday night... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: jesus christ I think I speak for many when I say I don't quite know why we're calling on the Good Shepherd with this look. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, mattie g said: I think I speak for many when I say I don't quite know why we're calling on the Good Shepherd with this look. there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream 7 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream That’s perfect 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream Got it. That second screengrab makes more sense. Thanks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 there's pretty much everything here for a major storm vigorous S/W digging over the Plains decaying -NAO over north central Canada highly anomalous 50/50 ULL ridging building upstream I’ll be in the minority here and don’t want to get flamed, but I just don’t agree. It kind of looks like a smoothed out version of the OP. The lead up to that wave still has too much Ridge link up that’s why the lead wave on all the OP models and ensembles favors snow into the Midwest and lakes. The only hope is for a low to develop on the backside of that trough, a miller B. Looks like EPS does that but mostly favors NE. Not trying to be negative. We’re still far out I just think the devil is in the details here…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 …and this is exactly what I mean…. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: I’ll be in the minority here and don’t want to get flamed, but I just don’t agree. It kind of looks like a smoothed out version of the OP. The lead up to that wave still has too much Ridge link up that’s why the lead wave on all the OP models and ensembles favors snow into the Midwest and lakes. The only hope is for a low to develop on the backside of that trough, a miller B. Looks like EPS does that but mostly favors NE. Not trying to be negative. We’re still far out I just think the devil is in the details here… . I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involved meteorology > taking what models say verbatim 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I say this with all due respect, but I am not sure what else you'd want to look for on a Day 8 ENS output for major storm potential. it checks every box I don't care about snowfall output when I see that high-end 500mb configuration. lots of members pop coastals, but of course there's going to be a lot of spread at this range when 52 members are involvedMy point illustrated like a 6 year old….. we need better push from “X” to allow more spacing for “L” because of the ridge linkup leading into the event. 12z run yesterday did this. Todays eps favors snow in NE and lakes because of the spacing issue between X and L here… long way to change this and allow better amplification for backside low…. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I need to see blue--over my backyard. Not 500mb blue....not 2temp anomoly blue...not 850 anomoly blue---i need to see mutha fookin snow blue on the model map...over my yard. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ji said: I need to see blue--over my backyard. Not 500mb blue....not 2temp anomoly blue...not 850 anomoly blue---i need to see mutha fookin snow blue on the model map...over my yard. Preferably blue on the radar w/ an AmWX storm OBS thread updating at 1 page per minute. We can dream.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ji said: I need to see blue--over my backyard. Not 500mb blue....not 2temp anomoly blue...not 850 anomoly blue---i need to see mutha fookin snow blue on the model map...over my yard. lmao it's like 8 days out. the ensembles are way more important than the OP the OP is basically betting on one ENS member to give you snow. makes no sense at this range 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 20 minutes ago, Heisy said: My point illustrated like a 6 year old….. we need better push from “X” to allow more spacing for “L” because of the ridge linkup leading into the event. 12z run yesterday did this. Todays eps favors snow in NE and lakes because of the spacing issue between X and L here… long way to change this and allow better amplification for backside low… . I get what you mean, but I feel like you're missing the forest for the trees here. the longwave setup is almost perfect. will it produce? we can't say that yet, but this pattern gives us a much, much better shot than normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 So....currently, 2 March 2023, 8:30PM UTC, we can see favorable conditions in the long range. But any legit storm threat is either just beyond the 10 day range, or simply not there. That's the current gist? yay. excited. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lmao it's like 8 days out. the ensembles are way more important than the OP the OP is basically betting on one ENS member to give you snow. makes no sense at this range sure it does--the GFS saw the March 4 event 8 days away and hardly wavered 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Ji said: sure it does--the GFS saw the March 4 event 8 days away and hardly wavered that has absolutely nothing to do with this event 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 lmao if this is the pattern projected by the best ENS at 8 days out and everyone wants to downplay it for whatever reason, then whatever, but it's a bit foolish to me. I personally don't understand it at all 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now