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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Right!? Just relax already. You want snow—google it and put on a VR headset. How the hell do you think @Jebman can live in TX!? :lol:

For any gamers here, play RDR2 and hit the northern highlands. Incredibly beautiful. Spent more hours up there hunting and just exploring than I care to admit.

I mean what's the difference, right? Digital blue = digital blue.

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28 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

I come back after a 3 week break to find people throwing in the towel and being upset over an op run at *checks notes* 8 days out? Good lord

It’s been a long winter…a 3 week break would be real nice..I don’t have the stones for that 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way 

THE LOVE I HAVE FOR BROOKLYN IS PURE! Bring us a bagel and a schmear! No more fucking avocados or @stormtrackereggs damn it.
 

Puts down beer and deletes AmericanWX bookmark. I love you all. See you on the flippity flop…:lol:

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4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

In a simplistic manner can someone explain what would cause the OP and ENS to be so different please? I mean it’s not even close. 

The op is like one high resolution member of the ensemble at day 8.  And the mean of all the members outperforms any one member at these leads.

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I don't have my hopes up for this upcoming event.   Sure we have great blocking but the PAC and the SE ridge are not cooperating.  They haven't all winter.   I admit I can't completely rule it out but I don't it's coming back.   It was only ever on the CMC and EPS control anyway.

 

Both  the GEFS and the EPS show a period of  below normal heights with no SE ridge the 14th- the 20th., my money is on the day after ST Patty's day.

s1o31QI.png

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Everything is harder with an active NS, and we still are in a Nina. We really fucking need a Mod Nino with sustained NA blocking next winter.

I feel ya but in the long run we’re in deep trouble if we can only snow in a -NAO Mod Nino. Those happen once a decade. 

3 hours ago, Ji said:

DT said the storm today that euro had 5 times in a row giving us double digit snow was 100% BS because of MJO phase 7...hopefully he will say the same things about these solutions that involve blocking and MJO high amplitude Phase 8

They updated the correlations for the  Indo Pac warm pool. The only good MJO phase is now 9. 

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way 

It’s gonna be thunderdome in here until it snows. Just have to put on your big boy pants and roll with it.  

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I'll do the pbp, screw it.  Especially since [mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] and [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] encouraged it. Don't like it, don't read it.  Fuck the haters.   I like doing it.  I suck at it, but whatever...it's fun.  See yinz at 0z

One day, maybe not this year, but sometime in the future we’ll get one of those epic runs with an event around day 6-7 that actually trends the right way. The pain is worth the glory. It snowed at my house today for like 15 minutes, just those few flakes made me want a snowstorm so much more.


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Thank you- So it’s pretty absurd in this case how much if an outlier it is- no?

The problem I see here is the rest of the data we have is going the same direction. We didn’t have one model run today outside maybe the JMA that gave us snow with a decent H5 SLP track. Even the 18z GEFS which we seem to be putting all our money on still favors interior based on the snow mean. When the OP GFS came in way amped last week with this current system we all thought it was out to lunch too…


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