Weather Will Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS looks NOTHING like the OP. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Op is worst case...thankfully just an op at range. Cutter and we touch 70 degrees. Then well BN temps and dry. Avocado cold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GEFS looks great. if we’re gonna talk about how bad the new data is, we have to use all of it. this leans towards a much more favorable solution and shows why it’s foolish to totally burn the house down 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS looks NOTHING like the OP. Damn. Yea that's significantly different. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Someone cut my Sapwood Brewing ass off! Even my friends here be like…go home GFS blows. Euro blows as well. Believe the CRAS bro! It’s over (like the end credits in Ferris Bueller). Suffering. Praying for flurries soon…what did I just type!? Damn I hate the internet… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 18z GEFS actually trended more favorably . 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way 32 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way Keep doing your thing....... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 If there is one lesson to learn from this winter, the OPs are crap outside 4-5 days. All of them!!! And it works both ways. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 also, I only post about good stuff because it’s already suffocating when people are posting 10 times about a dogshit solution… I don’t feel like it’s needed to pile on unless there’s incorrect analysis or anything like that there’s nothing wrong with being an optimist. there’s already enough pessimistic viewpoints 27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 But the 360 hr gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way Ignore the trolls. Keep throwing us your thoughts. I like them fwiw 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I think I can echo exactly what @psuhoffmanhas been saying. We have a loaded pattern between the 10th and 20th. Could have 1 shot, could have 2, could even have 3. Chances are good that at least 1.will work out. Might need to kick the can a bit....or maybe not. And to echo @brooklynwx99 no op is going to nail anything 7 or 8 days out so next week could very well still be the one. And to echo @CAPE we just can't know. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way you're not the weenie in this situation. far from it. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 So we’ve been down this road before where GEFS is always a little SE of Op, but this is exactly why ensembles are used. It always takes the GFS a full 24 hours to get a run out of its system. The ensemble being this much different is exactly why we have ensembles, def hope for 00z and going forward, I’ll give y’all that. I didn’t expect that at all . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z GEFS actually trended more favorably . Model mayhem ...love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But the 360 hr gfs Carve out the avocado trough, then get a wave riding the thermal boundary. That's money. Too bad its basically Spring by then lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z GEFS actually trended more favorably . To help put things into perspective 7 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, H2O said: Ignore the trolls. Keep throwing us your thoughts. I like them fwiw Second this opinion. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Cobalt said: To help put things into perspective Yep, weaker and flatter with the energy coming out of the West. Just what we want. Crazy how different the ops are from their ens means right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: To help put things into perspective OMG !!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, H2O said: Ignore the trolls. Keep throwing us your thoughts. I like them fwiw thanks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Second this opinion. Me three. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Carve out the avocado trough, then get a wave riding the thermal boundary. That's money. Too bad its basically Spring by then lol. i dont think we we would care what the models are throwing out if if was Dec or January...but every day in march counts. So being okay with a cutter on March 11 to setup us up for a March 17th storm--that dosent work 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nothing is etched in stone. My observations are specific to this run/recent runs. In general though, everyone has seen this movie play out over and over this winter and it always ends the same. Thus the pessimism. Pattern is somewhat more favorable, and given all the chaos, there is no reason to think the timing and degree of interaction between the key waves is nailed down by guidance 7 days out. Plenty of time. Yea, there's optimism and there's atmospheric memory. I think having a balance of both (sprinkled with it being mid-March and also knowing that we're not New England) is probably an ideal route to take at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GEFS looks very similar to 12z Canadian and JMA fwiw. Snow mean still favors interior but we def take. Early on in the run the GEFS looked worst since ridge was stronger, but it seems some members are retrograding the energy back in the PAC allowing for weaker wave to eject east. This was what Cape was alluding to earlier. Compare this region to the OP at same hour . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But it's not a real ridge, dont forget Just gonna suggest that folks stop being dix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: call me a weenie all you want… I’m not going to throw in the towel 8 days out when a major ENS has that solution. no fucking way Keep providing your informative updates and ignore all the non-positive comments. People need to chill. It is just weather and if you don’t agree that is cool, but don’t make it personal. Now back to drinking, toking and enjoying life to its fullest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: Yea, there's optimism and there's atmospheric memory. I think having a balance of both (sprinkled with it being mid-March and also knowing that we're not New England) is probably an ideal route to take at this point. This winter has been a ratter, and it is getting late. Ji is right that there is a pretty big difference between getting a storm on March 11 vs. having to wait a week. It can work out, but the hostile for snow curve is getting pretty steep especially for the lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 20 minutes ago, Cobalt said: To help put things into perspective This post should replace the last 4 pages. 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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