DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: telling people not to completely abandon multiple days’ worth of thinking because of like 3 OP runs is weenie-ish? ok dude. sometimes you have to stick to your guns a bit and let the cards fall further. that’s how forecasting works I think you’re ignoring my point. I actually completely agree with/respect sticking to your guns. I was referring to you holding out hope for storms that were looking bleak all winter…pattern changes, etc. edit to add…no one is going to disagree with a met publicly on thread who says a favorable outcome could be in the cards, it fuels the snow lovers dreams. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 also, I don’t need anyone acting like they “saw this coming” for any reason other than pessimism because a) the mood was near ecstatic like 12 hours ago and b) we are eight days out! things will change! christ. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: also, I don’t need anyone acting like they “saw this coming” for any reason other than pessimism because a) the mood was near ecstatic like 12 hours ago and b) we are eight days out! things will change! christ. I agree with this part. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Nobody mentioned it at 12Z, and not that it really matters but the JMA was a thing of beauty. So at least we have the Japanese and the Canadians on our side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: We are all gonna need to get good and sauced for the Friday HH edition runs. Working on it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: telling people not to completely abandon multiple days’ worth of thinking because of like 3 OP runs is weenie-ish? ok dude. sometimes you have to stick to your guns a bit and let the cards fall further. that’s how forecasting works That’s fair. This run was so bad it almost makes one think it’s way off the mark. It’s Friday…8 days…op run…we wait and expect the worst but pray for better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Maybe if it keeps shifting west over the next 20 runs it’ll end back on the east coast? That output is kind of ridiculous for South Dakota.. areas in the Western part of the state snow from hr90 to hr 234 without much of a break lol. Wild solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 At least the SER still gets knocked down by day 10, so there's that consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 telling people not to completely abandon multiple days’ worth of thinking because of like 3 OP runs is weenie-ish? ok dude. sometimes you have to stick to your guns a bit and let the cards fall further. that’s how forecasting worksUkie, Icon, EPS, Euro, two runs of the GFS, Canadian (which is the closest run of day to an event is still inland)… pretty much everything is leaning towards ejecting the energy as one strong wave now and there’s nothing kknocking down ridge. You def nailed the pattern, and you’re one of my favorite posters on here. However, the data is screaming at us today. It’s been the same theme all year around this time frame. At some point gotta realize things aren’t looking good. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: At least the SER gets knocked down by day 10, so there's that. St Patty’s day window has some potential, would be a lot easier to believe it if it weren’t for our luck season to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Ops is a joke...NAO is gone and the 50/50 replaced with a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That output is kind of ridiculous for South Dakota.. areas in the Western part of the state snow from hr90 to hr 234 without much of a break lol. Wild solution Been a Midwest/West Coast year. Cant really be shocked if it stays that way from beginning to end. When Vegas and LA have more snow than DC it really isnt our year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: Ukie, Icon, EPS, Euro, two runs of the GFS, Canadian (which is the closest run of day to an event is still inland)… pretty much everything is leaning towards ejecting the energy as one strong wave now and there’s nothing kknocking down ridge. You def nailed the pattern, and you’re one of my favorite posters on here. However, the data is screaming at us today. It’s been the same theme all year around this time frame. At some point gotta realize things aren’t looking good. . Well there’s also the seasonal trend. We’ve seen similar looks modeled, and have them knocked down in a fashion similar to how guidance has done today. Wouldn’t be fair to say anyone saw it coming unless they were being pessimistic about the winter but we shouldn’t be surprised as our own winter is the analog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Im calling this run bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: System gets so intense it tries to obliterate the block and reconfigure the entire longwave pattern over N America. Oh joy There is nothing really useful about this "block". Its orientation is shifted 90 degrees from ideal, as it links with the amped ridge in front of that monster trough. Essentially a full latitude ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: Im calling this run bs LOLZ, why? We have seen it all year long! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Something brewing after the 14th on the gfs, so pattern still has potential. We are losing the first threat tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: throw in the towel at 8 days if you want, but don’t come back if things become more favorable. there are going to be many changes I wish people would actually listen and follow this sage advice 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nothing is etched in stone. My observations are specific to this run/recent runs. In general though, everyone has seen this movie play out over and over this winter and it always ends the same. Thus the pessimism. Pattern is somewhat more favorable, and given all the chaos, there is no reason to think the timing and degree of interaction between the key waves is nailed down by guidance 7 days out. Plenty of time. Exactly! I commend your posting style. You're always reasonable and logical. Unfortunately the crying and sulking by the usual suspects have at times made the thread unbearable. I just sounded a little like Howard lol. I would argue that with a more favorable pattern establishing itself things can easily change back to a very good look even as late as early next week. Despite the seasonal trend this is definitely a much different pattern taking over so expecting the same outcome may be the easy of waythinking but will probably end up wrong as we should have multiple legitimate threats through the end of the month with the usual caveats being applied especially for the cities and low lands. Living and dying by each individual operational run has seemed to reach and all time low by some of our more seasoned posters. Paranoia at its finest. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, I don’t need anyone acting like they “saw this coming” for any reason other than pessimism because a) the mood was near ecstatic like 12 hours ago and b) we are eight days out! things will change! christ. y'all will start freaking out immediately after a few bad op runs - don't count ur chickens before they hatch and this goes both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That output is kind of ridiculous for South Dakota.. areas in the Western part of the state snow from hr90 to hr 234 without much of a break lol. Wild solution Might be worth a chase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 18z gefs seem to be weakening the epo ridge while intensifying ao/nao. Is there an analog for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GFS op is like the little engine that just couldn't do it. On to 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The long range threats this year have all been the same, 14 day pattern looks good, day 10 looks amazing with KU inbound, day 9 everyt op goes to shit but the ensembles will save use, day 8 temps in the 60’s and whatever storm there is cuts to Minneapolis while we enjoy 3 minutes of sleet then rain. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Exactly! I commend your posting style. You're always reasonable and logical. Unfortunately the crying and sulking by the usual suspects have at times made the thread unbearable. I just sounded a little like Howard lol. I would argue that with a more favorable pattern establishing itself things can easily change back to a very good look even as late as early next week. Despite the seasonal trend this is definitely a much different pattern taking over so expecting the same outcome may be the easy of waythinking but will probably end up wrong as we should have multiple legitimate threats through the end of the month with the usual caveats being applied especially for the cities and low lands. Living and dying by each individual operational run has seemed to reach and all time low by some of our more seasoned posters. Paranoia at its finest. When we have a threat in the LR I typically pore over the 0z ens runs early in the morning with my coffee. This morning things looked quite good for snow especially from your area westward. Lets see where we are on the means after tonight's 0z runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: 18z gefs seem to be weakening the epo ridge at the expense of the -ao/nao. Is there an analog for that? Probably. Somewhere in the history of weather 2022-2023 winter happened already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Something brewing after the 14th on the gfs, so pattern still has potential. We are losing the first threat tho. We’re done on the coastal plain by then 99% of the time. Unless we get some super anomalous cold. Time to get out the proverbial forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Op is worst case...thankfully just an op at range. Cutter and we touch 70 degrees. Then well BN temps and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, I don’t need anyone acting like they “saw this coming” for any reason other than pessimism because a) the mood was near ecstatic like 12 hours ago and b) we are eight days out! things will change! christ. Take a break 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 DT said the storm today that euro had 5 times in a row giving us double digit snow was 100% BS because of MJO phase 7...hopefully he will say the same things about these solutions that involve blocking and MJO high amplitude Phase 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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