Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 But I still think our best bet is centered on the 15thThis is a better look and overall pattern for mid Atlantic snow imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 58 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Need @Solution Man with the Clint Eastwood gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: This is a better look and overall pattern for mid Atlantic snow imo . 100% agree. And @psuhoffman has been all over it not being the first wave/threat that produces. He may be frustrating with the journal thing but when he gives his ideas I tend to listen to him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 To further illustrate out later in the op run, please tell me how this isnt a SERExactly, which is why I’ve been stressing about the energy either ejecting out in pieces or a lot weaker. Todays runs are drilling a much stronger wave coming out west and we’re just cooked if that’s the case. I got a little excited for about 6 hours between 00z cmc and 6z gfs showing weak wave getting squeezed under the block but models quickly adjusted. The GFS’s insane odd run is just it’s own way of trending towards a cutter like solution imo. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: To further illustrate out later in the op run, please tell me how this isnt a SER We need that to get beat down so a followup can come along and do its thing. Eta: but with that said, we DONT want a March 1993 storm over the Plains resetting the entire hemispheric pattern either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As much as people are denying, the SER base state is a real thing. I keep hearing that isn't a ridge in the SE at 120 hrs it's just a response to the digging sw out west......which is a ridge....in the Southeast. It isnt going anywhere, yet. Lets look back a few runs on the GFS before more energy was dumping into the western trough in response the the amplifying EPO ridge because it cant escape west. What do you notice? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Lets look back a few runs on the GFS before more energy was dumping into the western trough in response the the amplifying EPO ridge because it cant escape west. What do you notice? flatter ridge , then pop , ying yang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lets look back a few runs on the GFS before more energy was dumping into the western trough in response the the amplifying EPO ridge because it cant escape west. What do you notice? Weaker blocking,more energy lagging behind developing 50/50, ridging in PNA as opposed to SE, kicker on the heels of the NW energy feature. Also more connection between the 50/50 lag energy and the energy coming thru the WC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need @Solution Man with the Clint Eastwood gif 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: To further illustrate out later in the op run, please tell me how this isnt a SER imo that's just a result in wave spacing and a ridge being built in front of the s/w. that's not a "real ridge", temps are still below average and so are 850s, i think it's just a response from wavespafong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, AtlanticWx said: imo that's just a result in wave spacing and a ridge being built in front of the s/w. that's not a "real ridge", temps are still below average and so are 850s, i think it's just a response from wavespafong I get that, but there is still an increased tendency in that region to build ridges faster and stronger in this Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, frd said: flatter ridge , then pop , ying yang Chicken vs the egg debate. Both the burying of sw's out west and the SER have been trademarks of the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I get that, but there is still an increased tendency in that region to build ridges faster and stronger in this Nina.But the niña isn’t what it was earlier this season. That bitch is all but dead. It’s a tough emotional rollercoaster when everything’s failed us all winter. I get it. Im there too. But we’ve also failed over and over in the midst of a MISERABLE longwave pattern. Outside of a few 2-3 day windows where we had a potential thread the needle opportunity arise, that pattern has persisted since January. PSU hammered down on that point all winter long. We failed because the setup was god awful and we were praying for things to work out in a setup with a near 0 success rate for our region. For the first time in 5 months, we are heading into a strong MJO phase 8. We have blocking, a 50/50 low, etc. La Niña is also finally dying out. The atmosphere is going through a complete overhaul, so I REALLY think we need to be patient with models at this range. There is little chance they are going to be able to nail down these details at range or be consistent in how they analyze them. Initialization is pretty crucial to any given models output, and they are initializing in a completely different pattern. This all matters. Which is why we need to step back and analyze the teleconnections and the evolution at 500mb, and allow the OPs to figure themselves out along the way. Even the fail solutions are WILDLY different from run to run. This gives me near zero confidence that their outcomes are correct either. Not saying we HECS, but I see zero consistency, which means we need to be patient. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 We are all gonna need to get good and sauced for the Friday HH edition runs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I get that, but there is still an increased tendency in that region to build ridges faster and stronger in this Nina. this nina is dead 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: But I still think our best bet is centered on the 15th better hope it happens at night time...because nothing is going to stick on the 15th during the day unless we are in the mid 20s which is like 35 degrees below normal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Nice, healthy -EPO and -NAO on 18z NAM at 84hr. I can see the lower latitudes fitting under this very well. Maybe the earlier piece trends. It seems for that for an EC trough/snowstorm, they always want to make it GOA low. (^That -EPO is too organized and strong for a strong, sustained SE ridge.) 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice, healthy -EPO and -NAO on 18z NAM at 84hr. I can see the lower latitudes fitting under this very well. Nice 50/50 too. It would appear all systems go. Like there is no way this look could be anything but awesome in later frames…one would think that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nice 50/50 too. It would appear all systems go. Like there is no way this look could be anything but awesome in later frames…one would think that Yeah, that's a pretty awesome look. look at the cold air wedging in 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 @stormtrackeryou got the mic…take us home. HH BABY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I get that, but there is still an increased tendency in that region to build ridges faster and stronger in this Nina. this has always been the case, no? that ridge is doing nothing tho, it's like those light blue anomalies u see in front of a trough sometimes but it doesn't matter bc ur still torching at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: @stormtrackeryou got the mic…take us home. HH BABY LFG!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Nice, healthy -EPO and -NAO on 18z NAM at 84hr. I can see the lower latitudes fitting under this very well. Maybe the earlier piece trends. It seems for that for an EC trough/snowstorm, they always want to make it GOA low. (^That -EPO is too organized and strong for a strong, sustained SE ridge.)Euro looks exactly like this at 90 hours so not really sure how great this would end up being. The lead edge of trough shoots straight NNE instead of E and doesn’t do anything to the ridging out ahead of it, then main energy comes east and it’s lights out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: 4 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, George BM said: This was the right choice. HHH! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 What is weed and booze like? I am not allowed weed with my job…so I just know booze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Might require both after this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Might require both after this run Already done. George was correct. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What is weed and booze like? I am not allowed weed with my job…so I just know booze With weed a drink or 2 will do. Need food at the ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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