March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

please stop doing play by play

please DIAF

 

ETA: You know what, cool.  I will.  Not because of the fact that you're stupid, but I don't know if anybody is getting anything from it anyway.  So, as you wish. 

[clskinsfan]

The 50/50 eventually loses and we get 850's screaming in due south. Beast of a storm though. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

OP runs are basically ensemble members at this range. chill out

Just let the weenies be weenies.  You'll frustrate yourself trying to calm them down.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Because of the -NAO tendency, I might expect this to trend south. It's not too late here.. can't be any later. 

[jayyy]

This is why I said last night that I’m pissed cmc showed a massive dead hit blizzard. Any OP run that shows otherwise will have people freaking out.

Wait. For. The. Ensembles. Fuckers.

[Ravens94]

Again

[brooklynwx99]

if you guys want to track a storm from 10-15 days out, this comes with the territory. not sure what else to tell you. storms don’t stay in the bullseye on every OP run for 20-40 runs straight

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

OP runs are basically ensemble members at this range. chill out

Like you predicted, everyone is loosing their heads over a OP run at range. Very interested to see the EPS. If it is similar to the GFS/GEPS disagreement, I feel we are still in good shape.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The 50/50 eventually loses and we get 850's screaming in due south. Beast of a storm though. 

March 93 for the Plains.

[Terpeast]

Ops seem to want to slow the vorts down and amp them, while many ensemble members kick them out faster and less amped. 

[LeesburgWx]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

No they don't.

#yousuck

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes. We can’t have a monster trough neutrally tilted in the Rockies. Even all this blocking probably just gives us maybe a chance at brief front end frozen with that look. It’s got to be a weaker shortwave so it can slide under the block and amplify on the coast. Like the GEFS and GGEM.

If I want one model to have to be “over amped” it is the euro. Just sayin. 

[mattie g]

In the end, the Euro has us firing up the severe thread.

F5s on The Mall?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Ops seem to want to slow the vorts down and amp them, while many ensemble members kick them out faster and less amped. 

I'm not saying the ops are right, still should follow the ens for now. But what has been the tendency out West all season? That's all I'm gonna say on the matter.

[dallen7908]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Ops seem to want to slow the vorts down and amp them, while many ensemble members kick them out faster and less amped. 

Yes, sometimes an ensemble of 4 operational models is as valuable as a 30 or 50 member ensemble of just one operational - non-dispersion for the loss

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm not saying the ops are right, still should follow the ens for now. But what has been the tendency out West all season? That's all I'm gonna say on the matter.

Could be that the models are underestimating the block and or overinitializing current conditions with the old pattern still in place. 

[AlexD1990]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

please DIAF

 

ETA: You know what, cool.  I will.  Not because of the fact that you're stupid, but I don't know if anybody is getting anything from it anyway.  So, as you wish. 

for the love of God, don't listen to him. smoke a bowl, and we'll see you at 18z 

[stormtracker]

Just now, alexderiemer said:

for the love of God, don't listen to him. smoke a bowl, and we'll see you at 18z 

Now you're talking.  Nah, he put me on tilt.  He thinks being an asshole is edgy.

But as an aside, this new flower I got.....<chef's kiss>.  If I don't have snow, I'll always have the devil's lettuce. 

[Lowershoresadness]

2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

for the love of God, don't listen to him. smoke a bowl, and we'll see you at 18z 

eat an edible for every meltdown

[stormtracker]

Just now, Lowershoresadness said:

eat an edible for every meltdown

You're trying to kill me or put me in a coma

[jayyy]

if you guys want to track a storm from 10-15 days out, this comes with the territory. not sure what else to tell you. storms don’t stay in the bullseye on every OP run for 20-40 runs straight

Thank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps.

There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP.

IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable.

Breathe y’all.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Now you're talking.  Nah, he put me on tilt.  He thinks being an asshole is edgy.

But as an aside, this new flower I got.....<chef's kiss>.  If I don't have snow, I'll always have the devil's lettuce. 

Name? Asking for a friend 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Name? Asking for a friend 

I Gotta ask my boy.  I just tell him how I want to feel and he matches up the strain.  He's a weedologist. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Thank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps.

There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP.

IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable.

Breathe y’all.

I think after a season of futility and coastals trending to cutters at this range, the debbing can be expected. We do have some different players up top so we wait and see if this will be any different

[AtlanticWx]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

please DIAF

 

ETA: You know what, cool.  I will.  Not because of the fact that you're stupid, but I don't know if anybody is getting anything from it anyway.  So, as you wish. 

please keep doing PBPs, ur analysis is great

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I Gotta ask my boy.  I just tell him how I want to feel and he matches up the strain.  He's a weedologist. 

Ice Cream Cake will get you through the roughest of model runs. Might fall asleep by hour 240 but you get the idea.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Thank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps.

There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP.

IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable.

Breathe y’all.

Agreed.  I'm just giving the info not saying I agree with it or jumping with it.  I think we have to wait until probably Sunday to get a feel of where this is going

[Baltimorewx]

10 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Like you predicted, everyone is loosing their heads over a OP run at range. Very interested to see the EPS. If it is similar to the GFS/GEPS disagreement, I feel we are still in good shape.

It depends how you define "good shape"...If I have elevation and live in NW MD or South Central PA, I'm optimistic and following closely...You live in Lewes DE according to your tag...good luck getting snow even if its a solid coastal track. Its going to be really difficult for the low lands to pull something off snow wise.

[stormtracker]

Just now, AtlanticWx said:

please keep doing PBPs, ur analysis is great

Flattery gets you....everywhere.   I grant you ban immunity for a month.  

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I Gotta ask my boy.  I just tell him how I want to feel and he matches up the strain.  He's a weedologist. 

I want to troll you so bad with this post but it’s kinda mean. So I won’t because I LOVE your model pbp