stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Neutral, slight positive tilt trof centered over Co/NE at 174 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 so much confluence here over the NE US 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 My concern at 6z seems valid again. We just don’t want that strong of a shortwave coming east idc what anyone says s Yea maybe NE it doesn’t matter, but here it does. This will likely cut even though the block is doing its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Thermals are pretty bad at 180 tbh. 0 line is north of the area , with sfc freezing line in south central PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 And just like that, it pushes south of us again in the next panel..sfc fz line now down into western MD and along the M/D line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Something frozen starts at 186, but the 0 line is precarious with heavier moisture beginning to approach from the SSW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: And just like that, it pushes south of us again in the next panel..sfc fz line now down into western MD and along the M/D line 50/50 working it's magic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: My concern at 6z seems valid again. We just don’t want that strong of a shortwave coming east idc what anyone says s Yea maybe NE it doesn’t matter, but here it does. This will likely cut even though the block is doing its best . Yes. We can’t have a monster trough neutrally tilted in the Rockies. Even all this blocking probably just gives us maybe a chance at brief front end frozen with that look. It’s got to be a weaker shortwave so it can slide under the block and amplify on the coast. Like the GEFS and GGEM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Something frozen starts at 186, but the 0 line is precarious with heavier moisture beginning to approach from the SSWHopefully that slug drops thermals. I know I know, noise details at range but I want my model porn damn it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 50/50 working it's magic It's a beast on this run. I'm only looking at H5, which is why I mentioned the immovable object stuff earlier. The vort powers up and pumps the ridge out ahead, but that 50/50 is fighting like hell against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: My concern at 6z seems valid again. We just don’t want that strong of a shortwave coming east idc what anyone says s Yea maybe NE it doesn’t matter, but here it does. This will likely cut even though the block is doing its best . Heisy wins this round folks. Storm looks to cut into IN, but some hints of isobar saggage (scientific term) to the SSE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 50/50 working it's magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 looks like it's trying to redevelop? but our thermals are toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Heisy wins this round folks. Storm looks to cut into IN, but some hints of isobar saggage (scientific term) to the SSE But is it eggy looking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 so even with MJO phase 8 and having a huge 50/50 low...we get a cutter. PSU is right...its never going to snow again 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Yes. We can’t have a monster trough neutrally tilted in the Rockies. Even all this blocking probably just gives us maybe a chance at brief front end frozen with that look. It’s got to be a weaker shortwave so it can slide under the block and amplify on the coast. Like the GEFS and GGEM.Yea maybe we can get some WAA before things blast through, but if we want a pure major snowstorm not a chance if the euro is correct with how strong the wave is. Go look at last nights cmc and check the strength of the initial shortwave. It’s perfect, not too strong and gets pinned under the block like you said . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 lets hope the euro bias of over amplification in the long range is in play here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Both 12z op runs of the globals didn’t turn out good scenarios today. Hope this isn’t a sign of a trend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 It;s pretty ugly after showing promise. Let's wait for the ensembles before jumping off bridges 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, dallen7908 said: basically its today storm in a "new amazing pattern" 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Gfs and euro agree. It’s over folks #wesuck 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: My concern at 6z seems valid again. We just don’t want that strong of a shortwave coming east idc what anyone says s Yea maybe NE it doesn’t matter, but here it does. This will likely cut even though the block is doing its best . You have had a hot hand @Heisy Looks like may need to wait for my area until after the 14 th, or maybe 2024. The constant inland tracks persist. Nothing new here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: It;s pretty ugly after showing promise. Let's wait for the ensembles before jumping off bridges please stop doing play by play 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 OP runs are basically ensemble members at this range. chill out 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 so even with MJO phase 8 and having a huge 50/50 low...we get a cutter. PSU is right...its never going to snow againPSU just literally said otherwise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Is it April yet? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 basically its today storm in a "new amazing pattern"Can we get the other Ji back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 lets hope the euro bias of over amplification in the long range is in play hereThat’s certainly one hope, but ugh…. I really thought we had made strides at 6z, was seeing light at end of tunnel, then 6z eps came out and worried me and GFS pulled the rug out. This winter blows bro. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Gfs and euro agree. It’s over folks #wesuck No they don't. #yousuck 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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