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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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58 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Can I request that Weather Will stop referring to models as "WB Euro" or "WB GFS" or whatever, especially when posting images of H5? They're just the Euro or GFS or CMC or any other model depiction. Except maybe for the algorithms used for snowfall, It's not as if one site shows something different than another.

Pedantic, I know.

Lawyer in me; giving them credit for their maps.

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high amplitude blocking patterns like this are absolute hell for modeling. I would just focus on the ensembles and really try not to place too much emphasis on OP runs. there are going to be so many wildly different solutions

either way, I find it hard to believe that an impactful storm won't pop from this at some point through the 15th, even if most OP runs don't see it now. this is a powder keg setup

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-8222800.thumb.png.6cd4ee339b54e2f2c9608d54d377262b.png

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffman there does seem like there is potential for a long duration/stalled event like the 58 storm you always love to mention

I know some hate late snow but that storm dropped ~50” in places around here from incredibly high QPF. Would be like those Sierra storms almost.  I don’t care what time of year it is that would be cool. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know some hate late snow but that storm dropped ~50” in places around here from incredibly high QPF. Would be like those Sierra storms almost.  I don’t care what time of year it is that would be cool. 

LOL yeah, who in the world would turn something like that down? It would stink it would disappear so fast, but who cares when you get to experience a mid-March bomb? That would be almost unprecedented here.

I thought the GFS was a step in the right direction. At least it showed the kind of storm that I would think we would get out of this pattern, even if it wasn't exactly what we wanted. It's like 260 hours away.

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@Ji ironically maybe the 2 most dynamic snow events ever up here happened in very late March or early April. 
 

Palm Sunday 1942 dropped close to 40” in spots up here from a norlun trough that stalled and produced 12 hours of training thunder snow among the boundary. 
 

March 58 a miller b from a primary way to our NW got stuck under a block and bombed out sending heavy bands of precip west into just cold enough air to produce an area of 30-50” in the higher terrain NW of Balt to Philly. 

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In the Baltimore area there have been 102 snows storms with one-day totals exceeding 6 inches.  Of those, 21 occurred in March or April. 

Of the 21, 12 occurred during the first 10 days of March, 6 during the next 10 days, and 3 occurred on the 21st or later. 

In the DC area there have been 79 snow storms with one-day totals exceeding 6 inches.  Of those 10 occurred in March. 

Of those 10, 4 occurred during the first 10 days, 3 during the next 10 days, and 3 on the 21st or later. 

The Palm Sunday storm topped the chart at both locations (22 and 11.5 inches, respectively). 

 

Our window is short. 

 

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