vastateofmind Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not for below the fall line in March 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not for below the fall line in March This. Anoy of those other ones further out to sea raise a eyebrow, but that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 24 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Most of us are so desperate at this point that we'd consider an Airbnb around the PA border. i have an acre of land, just bring a tent and you're welcome to camp in the backyard. dont mind the dogs. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 2ft for Mt @psuhoffman…rain for DC Don’t shoot me for saying this but given the climo changes since then isn’t that likely how a March 58 redux would play out now considering the original DC proper got 6-12” of super heavy wet snow from like 3” QPF. It kept mixing with rain with temps at like 34-36 most of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I've been waiting all winter to post an "it's happening" gif. Please make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t shoot me for saying this but given the climo changes since then isn’t that likely how a March 58 redux would play out now considering the original DC proper got 6-12” of super heavy wet snow from like 3” QPF. It kept mixing with rain with temps at like 34-36 most of that storm. You know what you can do with that journal pal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 38 minutes ago, Quasievil said: ...and nearly ZERO here. Welcome to WinTurd 2022-2023. Mexico gets more snow than most in the subforum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 You all are going to lose your minds if you get too invested in each solution every 12 hours right now. The pattern is loaded. We will have threats. Probably multiple. Hopefully we get lucky and one is a flush hit. But the final solution to any of these threats won’t show itself yet on guidance. The pattern is way too noisy. This isn’t a Nino split flow blocking regime where the NS is quiet and we guidance simply has to time up the STJ waves. This pattern involves too many wave interactions for guidance to nail details at long leads. Some thought I have on this pattern…we have multiple ways to score. If the initial wave fails it could pull the boundary south for the next one. That seems our most likely win. If it holds back it could eject waves that might get us. This wouldn’t be a big storm scenario but boundary waves can be respectable in March. About the only total fail would be if all the energy ejects and phases into a March 93 type event but cuts. Then we get rain and cold dry after and since everything gets bundled once it lifts the whole pattern could break down. If this does end up ejecting all the energy and bombing while exciting that might be our lowest snow probability scenario. Most upside though. Pick your poison. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: You all are going to lose your minds if you get too invested in each solution every 12 hours right now. The pattern is loaded. We will have threats. Probably multiple. Hopefully we get lucky and one is a flush hit. But the final solution to any of these threats won’t show itself yet on guidance. The pattern is way too noisy. This isn’t a Nino split flow blocking regime where the NS is quiet and we guidance simply has to time up the STJ waves. This pattern involves too many wave interactions for guidance to nail details at long leads. Some thought I have on this pattern…we have multiple ways to score. If the initial wave fails it could pull the boundary south for the next one. That seems our most likely win. If it holds back it could eject waves that might get us. This wouldn’t be a big storm scenario but boundary waves can be respectable in March. About the only total fail would be if all the energy ejects and phases into a March 93 type event but cuts. Then we get rain and cold dry after and since everything gets bundled once it lifts the whole pattern could break down. If this does end up ejecting all the energy and bombing while exciting that might be our lowest snow probability scenario. Most upside though. Pick your poison. No zoom call tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You all are going to lose your minds if you get too invested in each solution every 12 hours right now. The pattern is loaded. We will have threats. Probably multiple. Hopefully we get lucky and one is a flush hit. But the final solution to any of these threats won’t show itself yet on guidance. The pattern is way too noisy. This isn’t a Nino split flow blocking regime where the NS is quiet and we guidance simply has to time up the STJ waves. This pattern involves too many wave interactions for guidance to nail details at long leads. Some thought I have on this pattern…we have multiple ways to score. If the initial wave fails it could pull the boundary south for the next one. That seems our most likely win. If it holds back it could eject waves that might get us. This wouldn’t be a big storm scenario but boundary waves can be respectable in March. About the only total fail would be if all the energy ejects and phases into a March 93 type event but cuts. Then we get rain and cold dry after and since everything gets bundled once it lifts the whole pattern could break down. If this does end up ejecting all the energy and bombing while exciting that might be our lowest snow probability scenario. Most upside though. Pick your poison. @psuhoffman when in your opinion does the threat window end ? I was thinking the 20 th, what our your thoughts ? By the way, I am glad you are excited. I hope I can excited too at my lattitude in the lower lands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t shoot me for saying this but given the climo changes since then isn’t that likely how a March 58 redux would play out now considering the original DC proper got 6-12” of super heavy wet snow from like 3” QPF. It kept mixing with rain with temps at like 34-36 most of that storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Lowershoresadness said: No zoom call tonight? If there is interest I would be open to it. But I’m not at home so I have to see what my internet situation is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, frd said: @psuhoffman when in your opinion does the threat window end ? I was thinking the 20 th, what our your thoughts ? By the way, I am glad you are excited. I hope I can excited too at my lattitude in the lower lands. I could see this tease us into April but realistically climo starts to get really hostile on the coastal plain by then. It depends where you are. I think realistically after these threats through March 18 or so it’s over for them. Piedmont could still possible score late March. Above 1000 ft maybe into early April. But realistically our best chance is one of these 4 waves or so between March 10 and 20th probably. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not for below the fall line in March yeah but I moved from DCA to CHO 3 years ago. My allegiances have changed!! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 But that storm coming out of the 4 corners region on the 12z gefs at 384. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 37 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: I've been waiting all winter to post an "it's happening" gif. Please make it happen. 8 days out my friend...patience...and booze...both are required 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Euro at H5 through 114 - looks like the vort out west might be digging a little more and the ridge is pumping a bit more out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Euro at H5 through 114 - looks like the vort out west might be digging a little more and the ridge is pumping a bit more out ahead. stronger 50/50, though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Dr No time. Let's roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Energy out west looking like it ejects at 126, whereas the GFS dives it down the coast. Maybe a bit stronger of a block than at the same time at 00Z, as well. Ninja'd by @brooklynwx99 regarding the block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dr No time. Let's roll. Dr. No seems way ahead of you… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 You can see the divergence with the GFS at about 120. The GFS just holds that energy back and digs the hell out of it whereas the CFS/Euro eject it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 So far, Euro looks good...will report back when there's something in the relevant time period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Can we just fast forward to the money shot? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dr No time. Let's roll. all the models are dr no this year? Which one are you talking about? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: So far, Euro looks good...will report back when there's something in the relevant time period everytime you say that--it ends up being a disaster lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: stronger 50/50, though Please correct me if I'm wrong, but at 150 am I seeing an immovable object clashing (block) with an unstoppable force (the western energy)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: all the models are dr no this year? Which one are you talking about? CRAS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, mattie g said: Please correct me if I'm wrong, but at 150 am I seeing an immovable object clashing (block) with an unstoppable force (the western energy)? Yeah, hopefully something the models can resolve with a little more lead time. Just two major players on the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: everytime you say that--it ends up being a disaster lol So basically it becomes your posting style here 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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