Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, alexderiemer said: I mean you're the expert, but I would feel that at this long a lead time, that having the OP disagree with it's own ENS would lend a little more credence to the ENS, no? Obviously an op run without ensemble support is less credible than one with support. But it is still very much one of the possibilities that we cannot rule out. If it holds back and amps too much, this will be a miss for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 amazing look at this range! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: amazing look at this range! Love it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 When the OP doesn’t match the Ensemble whatsoever… ya toss that shit. . 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: amazing look at this range! About what I would want to see on an ens mean at this range. Not a bullseye, not a miss ...dare I say right where we want it? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 gefs is still going at hr 204 lmao, if there's a threat that has an amazing longwave pattern and could be long duration, it could be this one. @brooklynwx99 props to u for spotting this out and staying consistent on it when no one was 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: About what I would want to see on an ens mean at this range. Not a bullseye, not a miss ...dare I say right where we want it? yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well Holy weenie. Gorgeous. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 2ft for Mt @psuhoffman…rain for DC Most of us are so desperate at this point that we'd consider an Airbnb around the PA border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, paulythegun said: Most of us are so desperate at this point that we'd consider an Airbnb around the PA border. This 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well Right out from the KU handbook, fully cave to the GEPS/EPS. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Holy weenie. Gorgeous. 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: NSFW 500mb progression. god damn. great to see the greatest anomalies to our south as well Pretty excited to look at the GEFS analogs for 12z today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, LP08 said: I'd imagine our GEFS snow mean will be much improved. All the way up to 1.4” through 384!?!?!?!!?? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: Right out from the KU handbook, fully cave to the GEPS/EPS. It really is an impressive mean 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 This is the stuff dreams are made of 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 It's still going LMAO 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, TSG said: This is the stuff dreams are made of Tucked 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 About every possible outcome in the book - which isn't surprising, I suppose. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 @brooklynwx99 new code name Hunter Killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: About every possible outcome in the book - which isn't surprising, I suppose. I would still caution against using snowfall means. the 500mb pattern is so good that models will probably come around on that stuff. they already kind of are 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 snow mean so far but it's still going at 219 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: About every possible outcome in the book - which isn't surprising, I suppose. Including a few that go to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would still caution against using snowfall means. the 500mb pattern is so good that models will probably come around on that stuff. they already kind of are just fun to look - agree the massive takeaway is that the ens are substantially improved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, TSG said: This is the stuff dreams are made of Not for below the fall line in March 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: About every possible outcome in the book - which isn't surprising, I suppose. P05 seems about right. Honestly tho, quite surprised at the number of misses north, even my area, given the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 finished* snow map, holy shit 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: P05 seems about right. Honestly tho, quite surprised at the number of misses north, even my area, given the means. i mean a lot of those are from the march 3rd storm and actually have no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would still caution against using snowfall means. the 500mb pattern is so good that models will probably come around on that stuff. they already kind of are Right. Those means at this range, can be highly influenced by one huge solution or a few really bad ones (i.e., zero), so it washes out. The ops GFS essentially was an extreme "ensemble" member itself, in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: P05 seems about right. Honestly tho, quite surprised at the number of misses north, even my area, given the means. Not that it matters much, but a lot of those misses north are today/tomorrow's storm still showing up on the means/individual members. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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