Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I think if we can get the storm in here on the 11th or before, we should be snow. The south-+PNA I wouldn't worry about, I think this a feature of the warm pattern. That -EPO is the key for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Lots of moisture way in front just to our south in S VA and NC (thermals aren't there for them so far). Have a CAD situation with us, but again mositure is being shunted east n east below us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Oh, stay with me, these are serious and complex meteorological terms: The sw went from an vertical egg to a horizontal one centered over MO 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 also the CMC is still absurd. might be to the west verbatim but I don’t care. this is sick at 500mb and closely resembles 00z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh, stay with me, these are serious and complex meteorological terms: The sw went from an vertical egg to a horizontal one centered over MO thanks for the eggsplanation 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 ok, light snow at 219, but this isn't the main low. Main low is over MO . But we are still holding on to Thermals with some limited CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, H2O said: thanks for the eggsplanation You are definitely a Dad 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 look at these run-to-run changes. it’s just a cracked out OP run. look at the consistency of the CMC/ECMWF and whatever the hell that is. just follow the ensembles 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Ok, we lost the thermals but the storm in MO just can't move...it's just sitting there and even got pushed back a smidge 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh, stay with me, these are serious and complex meteorological terms: The sw went from an vertical egg to a horizontal one centered over MO Keep your eggspectations low… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Congrats Chicago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The CMC is all or nothing. Would be a lot of hate in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok, we lost the thermals but the storm in MO just can't move...it's just sitting there and even got pushed back a smidge Too much of a good thing (blocking) this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Ok, Sw flipped back to a vertical egg and is pushing east again, but can't seem to gain latitude. Our temps suck at the. moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 That run was the slowest train wreck ever witnessed 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Hard to take this run at face value because of how different GFS/CMC are with evolution…. Lean on ensembles today. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Cmc is March 58 redux 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also the CMC is still absurd. might be to the west verbatim but I don’t care. this is sick at 500mb and closely resembles 00z That does look sick but I am not sure for our latitude. I feel like that would spawn an NE monster near LI...seem like...the MA forum...needs that a bit more SW closed off near KY...am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Precip seems to get washed out down to light...looks like a Miller B trying to form...but at our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GFS popping a new primary at the mouth of the bay at 234? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok, Sw flipped back to a vertical egg and is pushing east again, but can't seem to gain latitude. Our temps suck at the. moment. If we don't fail with avocados we can always count on the fried egg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 even after allllll that, the GFS still redevelops. we literally get a coastal from this. that’s why this pattern is so good. you can still get a somewhat favorable end result from garbage 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok, Sw flipped back to a vertical egg and is pushing east again, but can't seem to gain latitude. Or temps suck at the. moment. It's time for you to hand over the reigns to Heisy to take over for PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: The CMC is all or nothing. Would be a lot of hate in the forum. at 180 hr, 35 degrees near BWI and 51 about 50 miles due east across the bay onto the shore lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: That does look sick but I am not sure for our latitude. I feel like that would spawn an NE monster near LI...seem like...the MA forum...needs that a bit more SW closed off near KY...am I wrong? I’m not focusing on the specifics at this range… just that the general evolution is the same and just as potent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 look at these run-to-run changes. it’s just a cracked out OP run. look at the consistency of the CMC/ECMWF and whatever the hell that is. just follow the ensemblesPAC evolution early on still giving the models a crap ton of issues. Thought at 6z we were starting to see some clearance, but nothing is easy in this hobby lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 It's kind of a mess evolution wise. I agree with the others...this is just vastly different from itself and other models. Toss this shit 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: The CMC is all or nothing. Would be a lot of hate in the forum. 2ft for Mt @psuhoffman…rain for DC 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I’m not focusing on the specifics at this range… just that the general evolution is the same and just as potent yes...good point...I was just looking at that 500mb map verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: It's time for you to hand over the reigns to Heisy to take over for PBP. Heisy can't get down at a granular level and explain the eggs and souther terminology. This is complex stuff here. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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