Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The 12z NAM was really strong with the -PNA/SE ridge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Fwiw, I don't like to see this stuff for future model trend, it seems to go to -PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Yep, 120 digging nto the SW now. Big -pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Yep, 120 digging nto the SW now. Big -pnaCough, cough…. Lol wth man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: Cough, cough…. Lol wth man . Maybe we can cash in on the followup. Psu said he didn't like the 10th anyway he was eyeing the period after once the cold is established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 here come the sweeping freakouts over one OP run 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Another vastly different GFS run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep, 120 digging nto the SW now. Big -pna At the same time the GFS depicts a stronger block and 50/50 signature. Might not be enough to offset it but this is a ridiculous look, major-PNA or not.. but seasonal trends look to be a bit stingy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The run to run shifts are laughable: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Really a schizophrenic group and I say that in the nicest way possible…. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 that still doesn’t even look bad with the absolutely insane block in place. let the run play out and then look at the ENS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Same theme all winter with storms wanting to dig to Baja. Good news is cmc looks somewhat similar to 00z at 144 on black and white maps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Trof starting to move east, precip breaking out to the south SW....thermals are good so far, but I got a feeling they are going to get wrecked with such a strong SW already 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: Same theme all winter with storms wanting to dig to Baja. Good news is cmc looks somewhat similar to 00z at 144 on black and white maps . When in doubt, look to the heavens, err umm, the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 What an absolutely wild set up. Blocks/5050s can do crazy things. Let it play out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 We should wait for the model before making grand pronouncements. The boo bears could 100% be right, but still 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1050+HP dropping in over the top makes this run interesting so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 look at the NW flow in place over the NE US. this is not gonna be a typical solution that you’d see with a S/W that strong over the SW US. this might just go underneath 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Snow into the Shenandoah Valley this time next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: look at the NW flow in place over the NE US. this is not gonna be a typical solution that you’d see with a S/W that strong over the SW US. this might just go underneath What an unusual setup. This is going to be an interesting solution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: What an unusual setup. This is going to be an interesting solution There will be several different solutions over the coming days. None more viable then the next with those features in place. Just gotta see how the next week plays out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just constantly pushing west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that still doesn’t even look bad with the absolutely insane block in place. let the run play out and then look at the ENS So far 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: look at the NW flow in place over the NE US. this is not gonna be a typical solution that you’d see with a S/W that strong over the SW US. this might just go underneath So far, your pronouncement is looking more right than not. It's digging in and being pushed south a bit. Again, doesn't mean is gonna play out that way, just relaying what is going on current. Can't make a prediction yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Initial slug of moisture way out in front is trying to turn north, but can't...being shunted east...which is a good sign. The main stuff we are looking for is way back there. The vort is being pushed south inch by inch as it moves east 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So far So far, your pronouncement is looking more right than not. It's digging in and being pushed south a bit. Again, doesn't mean is gonna play out that way, just relaying what is going on current. Can't make a prediction yet any strong wave versus this block is basically an immovable object versus a not completely unstoppable force (the vort). a block of this magnitude will win the vast majority of the time look at the persistent negative height anomalies from the gyre in the N Atl 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Initial slug of moisture way out in front is trying to turn north, but can't...being shunted east...which is a good sign. The main stuff we are looking for is way back there. The vort is being pushed south inch by inch as it moves east Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 It's trying to build heights out in front, but it can't so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Gotta try not to get sucked into the run to run variance at this stage. I kind of agree that with a loaded setup like this, you kind of have to trust the features to ultimately deliver. Doesn’t mean they will, but you have to hope that’s the case at least. If we can’t get a coastal / snow event with this kind of setup, man… I’ll defer to PSU on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: It's trying to build heights out in front, but it can't so far. this is why I hate hate hate when people say -NAOs are overrated. bullshit. this thing would be over the Dakotas and we’d be in the 70s if not for it instead, it might actually force a 3 sigma trough to the south. unreal 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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