Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, usedtobe said: You know it's getting real when Wes pops in. Good to see you in here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wes! It's official folks, shit is getting real. All we need is some Chill to make it official. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: All we need is some Chill to make it official. He is a realist. He sees the pattern. He knows the implications. But as he noted before, he will only really show when there is a legit threat under 5 days give or take. Waiting patiently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You ready? I’m back in brother, went to the cashier for replenishment. Ain’t tired no more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: it would be fun to have DT weigh in at some point too...just for fun... you will have to find him somewhere else, he won't be posting here anytime soon. 4 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 37 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Mr. Snow is posting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: And for some, the warm smell of colitis, rising up through the air Dafuq? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 You mean "colitas?" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, mattie g said: You mean "colitas?" Yes......reefer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Full run GEFS made progress over last day’s runs….hopefully trends continue today (WB). I love how we think "What an amazing signal at XX days" when the ensemble snow map shows like 3.4" while it shows 28" in SNE. I mean...what kind of signal would *that* be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Dafuq? I'm sure colitis has a warm pungent aroma too tho. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes......reefer Better than the warm smell of colitis. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: I love how we think "What an amazing signal at XX days" when the ensemble snow map shows like 3.4" while it shows 28" in SNE. I mean...what kind of signal would *that* be? Wow, didn't even notice that. What a wicked signal on an ens mean. Might be the most snow I've ever seen on an ens mean not in the mountains. edit: guess half of this is from a storm tomorrow that I somehow didn't notice they were having. Still nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Ralph has absolutely ruined this thread for me. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Ralph has absolutely ruined this thread for me. FWIW I thought he was trying to spell a woman's body part. Soooo 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 19 minutes ago, mattie g said: I love how we think "What an amazing signal at XX days" when the ensemble snow map shows like 3.4" while it shows 28" in SNE. I mean...what kind of signal would *that* be? This is a good point and I agree with you, but that map also includes the 5-18" PA, upstate NY, and southern NE are getting this weekend to be fair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, usedtobe said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Stratosphere is warming again. This is a pretty severe warming. There is a 10-15 day lag at this time of the year with 500mb NAO correlation. It's been a nonstop 10mb warm phase since February 15 (15-28). What's interesting is that I had another and unrelated factor which is a -NAO signal until March 19th (3.9-19): This year-to-year change has been hitting pretty hard in verification for 2 years. These are two really strong factors. If the -NAO really lifts out the 10th/11, it will say to me that it doesn't have any staying power at this time, which is what I theorized because the Pacific always had an opposite correlation to EC cold when the NAO was negative/positive-cold. I also think there is a high bust-potential, (vs model verification accuracy) that/for -NAO conditions March 11-19. I also think this gravity could slightly make our storm have colder stay power on model trend, but I don't like what happens in the Pacific after March 11. The Pacific may equalize it out, and when that High leaves Alaska, it's game over as far as our snow chances goes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, mappy said: FWIW I thought he was trying to spell a woman's body part. Soooo That was a terrible effort if we are thinking the same thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 19 minutes ago, mattie g said: Ralph has absolutely ruined this thread for me. I think it’s now better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, H2O said: That was a terrible effort if we are thinking the same thing i know. im glad it was not what he was trying to spell. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 How @brooklynwx99 saved march? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Define "up North". The NYC forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6z gfs would be a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Stratosphere is warming again. This is a pretty severe warming. There is a 10-15 day lag at this time of the year with 500mb NAO correlation. It's been a nonstop 10mb warm phase since February 15 (15-28). What's interesting is that I had another and unrelated factor which is a -NAO signal until March 19th (3.9-19): This year-to-year change has been hitting pretty hard in verification for 2 years. If the -NAO really lifts out the 10th/11, it will say to me that it doesn't have any staying power at this time, which is what I theorized because the Pacific always had an opposite correlation to EC cold when the NAO was negative/positive-cold. I also think there is a high bust-potential, (vs model verification accuracy) that/for -NAO conditions March 11-19. I also think this gravity could slightly make our storm have colder stay power on model trend, but I don't like what happens in the Pacific after March 11. The Pacific may equalize it out, and when that High leaves Alaska, it's game over as far as our snow chances goes. Isn't this a regular occurrence late winter/early spring every year tho? I know mid winter it is rare. I'm not as versed in SSWEs as some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6z eps trended stronger with incoming wave at end of run, thinking we’d like to start reversing that soon… . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 WWA for 5-9” where I’m heading this weekend. Man, must be REAL nice to have climo where 5-9” is considered advisory level. Fuckers. Alright, @brooklynwx99 , let’s reel this sucker in. The sanity of snow starved weenies depends on it! (Myself included). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 6z eps trended stronger with incoming wave at end of run, thinking we’d like to start reversing that soon… . there's no trend? it's been going back and forth for a few runs now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6z eps trended stronger with incoming wave at end of run, thinking we’d like to start reversing that soon… .Differences seem pretty negligible at this range. Those two maps are nearly identical. At least it’s digging a tiny bit more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Isn't this a regular occurrence late winter/early spring every year tho? I know mid winter it is rare. I'm not as versed in SSWEs as some. Oct 30-Nov 15: 60 day correlation to 500mb Nov 15-30: 40-45 day correlation to 500mb Dec 1-31: 30-40 day correlation to 500mb Jan 1-31: 20-30 day correlation to 500mb Feb 1-28: 15-25 day correlation to 500mb. etc. They aren't common, as these are anomalies vs the climo-norm. Here's a graph. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding your question? I'm really impressed with the predictable lead time of D+15 in this 10mb warming to +600dm -NAO. Pretty classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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