March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back

[Heisy]

Lol….. all I have tonight. See how 17-21st shakes out.



.

[jayyy]

Already giving up 8-9 days out. Oy. I swear, at this point the snow gods are just fucking with us and fulfilling the it’s never going to snow prophecy

[jayyy]

RGEM is a near miss for wave 1

[jayyy]

ICON as well. Miller B setup with a primary redeveloping off NC. Primary gets too far north into SW PA. Close but not quite.

[Ruin]

22 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Already giving up 8-9 days out. Oy. I swear, at this point the snow gods are just fucking with us and fulfilling the it’s never going to snow prophecy

honestly with how bad models are 7 days out i wouldnt even look to more then 3 days out. even then things are suspect 

[jayyy]

Hi-Res Euro. Very similar low placement as the ICON. It too doesn’t gain enough latitude and slides east. Close but no cigar.

[jayyy]

As MJO phase 8 settles in and strengthens and wave 1 passes us by… have a feeling we’ll see wave 2 and beyond trend more favorably for us. Especially if we pop that ridge out west like some models are hinting at. Had a few runs where a Boise ridge popped up leading into waves 2 & 3.

We’ve got an active pattern with 3+ waves to track between now and the 21st. Hard to imagine models will have a clear picture on waves 2 and beyond before wave 1 is out of the picture. If wave 2 looks awful on Saturday, then I’ll reassess.

It’s march.. so naturally the climb is steep for us, especially closer to the coast… but i’m nowhere near giving up on this window, especially waves 2 and 3, which have been our best chances all along. Ideally, the setup that gets ushered in after wave 1 should be the tee up for waves 2 and 3 to work their magic. One can only hope at this point.

[Weather Will]

Showing this because it really personifies our winter season…WB Euro 0Z control

[Weather Will]

Split the difference between the WB 0Z EPS and the control and we get a nice hit on Day 5.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS for early Monday.

[Ji]

TT Eps

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[CAPE]

After looking at the latest ops/ens means, my thoughts haven't really changed from yesterday at this time. The weekend deal looks pretty bleak for frozen outside of far N and W. The secondary low is too little/late- it would need to get going closer to the coast. The pattern is actually progressive despite all the talk of blocking.  For the following wave next week, it will likely take a stronger low closer to the coast to involve colder air, plus stronger lift/dynamic cooling. Even then it would be precarious for the lowlands. Still potential and plenty of uncertainty in the evolution at this point. For now the signal for significant frozen on the means through mid next week continues to be to our north, and the western higher terrain at our latitude.

[Ji]

After looking at the latest ops/ens means, my thoughts haven't really changed from yesterday at this time. The weekend deal looks pretty bleak for frozen outside of far N and W. The secondary low is too little/late- it would need to get going closer to the coast. The pattern is actually progressive despite all the talk of blocking.  For the following wave next week, it will likely take a stronger low closer to the coast to involve colder air, plus stronger lift/dynamic cooling. Even then it would be precarious for the lowlands. Still potential and plenty of uncertainty in the evolution at this point. For now the signal for significant frozen on the means through mid next week continues to be to our north, and the western higher terrain at our latitude.

This pattern change has been disappointing. No cold highs...marginal air masses...barely below normal cold. All those great eps looks where fantasy.

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[Voyager]

2 hours ago, jayyy said:

As MJO phase 8 settles in and strengthens and wave 1 passes us by… have a feeling we’ll see wave 2 and beyond trend more favorably for us. Especially if we pop that ridge out west like some models are hinting at. Had a few runs where a Boise ridge popped up leading into waves 2 & 3.

The ridge is supposed to pop. I live in Phoenix now, and the forecast is for mid to upper 80s next week. 

[Weather Will]

6Z GFS is horrible.  After a light snow on Monday, winter is over.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

6Z GFS is horrible.  After a light snow Monday, winter is over.

Yep enjoy the next two waves if there are any.

[Ruin]

thats what im saying no one knows whats going to happen they keep saying cold snap till like almost the end of march but then you see all these forecasts saying not that cold. but the way this years been going most likely not gonna have cold or snow just the way its going 

[Weather Will]

WB GEFS is different than the global but still not very impressive through Day 10.

[blizzardmeiser]

58 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

6Z GFS is horrible.  After a light snow on Monday, winter is over.

When did it start? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I get on here and read about how great everything looks, and then a few hours later I’m reading how awful everything looks. 

[nj2va]

Pretty thorough layout by LWX:

Unsettled conditions return on Friday to conclude the work week.
The mentioned closed low will track across southern Michigan on
Friday morning before settling overhead late Friday. Over the
past couple of days, this system has certainly exhibited a
faster trend. Warm advection precipitation enters the picture
before daybreak across the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands. This
shield of precipitation presses eastward through the day making
for a chilly and raw day. With a cold air damming signature
evident, have favored the colder solutions which tend to verify
better in these setups. Accordingly, have brought high
temperatures down into the low/mid 40s, with mid 30s over the
mountains.

With cold air in place, some of the precipitation will be
wintry in nature. There is a chance for a brief rain/snow mix at
the onset in the vicinity of the metros, but no accumulation is
expected. A dusting up to 0.1-0.2" are possible closer to the
Mason-Dixon Line and points westward. As usual, elevation will
be the key as temperatures are to remain colder. Models show
some wavering of the 925-850 mb freezing line which would make
for a mix of freezing rain along the Alleghenies. Through Friday
evening, a trace up to 0.05" of ice accretions are in the
forecast for such locations. Elsewhere, a cold rain is expected
through the day with up to 0.25-0.50" north of DC and lighter
amounts to the south. Light snow continues into the night along
the Alleghenies as lift is augmented by upslope flow. As the
cold front tracks through overnight, precipitation comes to an
end from west to east. If temperatures cool off enough, areas
north of the DC and Baltimore metros may see a light coating of
snow. Overnight lows will be in the low/mid 30s for most, while
20s are more commonplace west of I-81. As winds turn blustery,
wind chills are forecast to drop into the single digits to teens
along the Alleghenies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep area of low pressure is progged to be drifting offshore
Saturday. Blustery conditions are possible in its wake depending on
how strong it gets, and how close it remains to the coast; guidance
remains somewhat at odds on how both of these factors play out.

Regardless, colder than normal temperatures are expected to spiral
into the region as the low departs and high pressure briefly noses
in. High temperatures may not get out of the 40s for most (staying
in the 30s for the higher terrain). Overnight lows in the 20s seem
likely Saturday night (teens for the higher terrain).

Another trough quickly approaches Sunday into Monday. Timing and
strength differences are evident in the guidance, as is to be
expected in progressive flow at longer time ranges. There is also
uncertainty in the degree of phasing of shortwaves rotating around
the base of the large scale trough. Some cold air will be present,
so at least the higher elevations may stand another chance at some
wintry precipitation, but details are very fuzzy this far out.

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I get on here and read about how great everything looks, and then a few hours later I’m reading how awful everything looks. 

Lol yeah, I don’t even know what to believe anymore

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

This pattern change has been disappointing. No cold highs...marginal air masses...barely below normal cold. All those great eps looks where fantasy.

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We’ve had 2 issues lately. We’ve spent a lot of time in crap longwave patterns because of the -pdo. But when the longwave pattern has been ok we’ve had another issue, often it’s just not cold enough no matter what the pattern or storm track is. I’ve pointed out to exhaustion that the only time it gets truly cold is when we get a full latitude epo pna ridge which is an incredibly rare combo and it’s not even one that good to get a big snowstorm as it tends to be a progressive cold/dry pattern.  
 

We have a good pattern. But problem 2 is showing up again. Absent an epo ridge this is simply as cold as it can get I think and historically an epo has no correlation to our snow because a ridge there is actually the wrong longwave configuration to get a trough along the east coast. This has been a problem for a while so why the surprise?

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I get on here and read about how great everything looks, and then a few hours later I’m reading how awful everything looks. 

The optimists had to sleep. Also…note where people live. Some in here have a much better chance than others and that likely influences the tone of their posts. 

[Weather Will]

What is sleep?

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The optimists had to sleep. Also…note where people live. Some in here have a much better chance than others and that likely influences the tone of their posts. 

[Ruin]

im starting to think all these model updates are not being done right no reason why older models were a good bit better are forecasting then these current models are 

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GEFS is different than the global but still not very impressive through Day 10.

The details that are different are important. On the op the 50/50 becomes displaced too far south allowing more ridging where we need confluence.  That one change creates a totally different reality. 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The details that are different are important. On the op the 50/50 becomes displaced too far south allowing more ridging where we need confluence.  That one change creates a totally different reality. 

Agreed, on my train ride in was looking at the GFS global and was thinking what a train wreck!  The GEFS took me off the cliff, but the pattern has about two weeks to deliver for most of us.  We are out of time for any more head fakes.

Will try to glance at 12Z at lunch, have a great day everyone!

 

[Ji]

I’m thankful our best Mets in our forum speak English

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The optimists had to sleep. Also…note where people live. Some in here have a much better chance than others and that likely influences the tone of their posts. 

And the HH drunks

Location has an impact obviously. When I post I generally aim to give an objective synopsis for our region as a whole, based on what I glean from latest guidance. Not crazy about the prospects for frozen for eastern areas though.