AtlanticWx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: What happened the other time that was the highest mean of the entire winter? the march 3rd storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What happened the other time that was the highest mean of the entire winter? How many options are there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS is no EURO but it has a little bit of snow for favored spots Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS is no EURO but it has a little bit of snow for favored spots Saturday night. Wouldn’t be shocked if we end up with some snow TV in the lowlands this weekend. If the EURO wants to up the ante at 0z, I’m game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time. Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time. Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way. Even 1 inch takes us off the list of snow infamy...if we can't at least get that, something wrong, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 What happened the other time that was the highest mean of the entire winter?Comparing means in completely different patterns. We had a garbage pattern all winter outside of a week or two in December. I get your pessimism. We all do. But saying it won’t play out simply because it didn’t before isn’t exactly a legit reason to downplay the possibility. I get it though man. It’s rough out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 I might have to mow my weeds and onions if this trend of hope continues 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time. Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way. I see just TV Snow with the temps being shown. GFS never gets below freezing for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 If it's in the New England thread its probably good for them...which is bad for us. It was from NYC, and the frame before isn’t exactly a death sentence for our forum either. Plenty of lows in positions we can score in. I get what you’re saying, but that’s not really the case with what I shared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 I see just TV Snow with the temps being shown. GFS never gets below freezing for most of us. Depends on rates for sure. I watched it snow a foot this weekend with temps just above freezing. Rates overcame. Sure, it melted quick, but I’d take 1-3” up here from wave 1 in a heartbeat. Especially with wave 2 right on its heels. Rates would be a concern for sure. No models are showing the thump we’d need to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Comparing means in completely different patterns. We had a garbage pattern all winter outside of a week or two in December. I get your pessimism. We all do. But saying it won’t play out simply because it didn’t before isn’t a legit reason to downplay the possibility. I asked a legit question and I've been optimistic asf for the mid March period since like Feb 24 or so. I think you got the wrong guy pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 I asked a legit question and I've been optimistic asf for the mid March period since like Feb 24 or so. I think you got the wrong guy pal.lol, it’s ok Ralph. No need to get defensive. You’ve certainly been one of the few alongside me, PSU, cape and Brooklyn who’ve been optimistic. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS was so close to a tripler but a hair too late for the Ides of March. Ironically it has come west last few runs with that mean trof feature. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS was so close to a tripler but a hair too late for the Ides of March. Ironically it has come west last few runs with that mean trof feature. Perfect place to be? Just a bit too progressive at D8ish. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, jayyy said: Perfect place to be? Just a bit too progressive at D8ish. . JMA and Euro on board....CMC extremely close. I'm not mad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA and Euro on board....CMC extremely close. I'm not mad. JMA has had it the whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Jan 25 2000 was a phased miller A/B type event where N/S dropped in and phased with southern energy. That one worked because of how far south the primary was and how deep the N/S was able to dive. Euro and other models show a more Northern stream dominant event, the full capture happens at a more northern latitude. Look where the capture is happening during 2000 vs what last night’s 00z and todays 12z euro are showing. We’d have to get a huge shift to be in play for storm 2. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 gefs looks better for 2nd wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: gefs looks better for 2nd wave Look west. ridge starting to pop. Starting to initialize mjo at 8, hmm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Look west. ridge starting to pop. Starting to initialize mjo at 8, hmm. Don't we need the ridge farther west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Don't we need the ridge farther west? Not at this range, it’s fine where it is now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 JMA and Euro on board....CMC extremely close. I'm not mad.GFS missed the phase with the southern vort pretty early and the N/S energy is farther W than euro. Here are the same two pieces of energy and there differences between both of the models at day 5. How we combine these two to get them to phase, tuck, and occlude at our latitude I don’t know. Randy will like my artistic improvements Also note the differences with the small Canadian vort that is N of the main northern stream disturbance on the euro vs what the GFS shows . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What happened the other time that was the highest mean of the entire winter? We don't know yet, it was the 00 UT EPS run from the 5th of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 50 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not at this range, it’s fine where it is now Just a reminder how much things can change. GFS now GFS 3 dats ago 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 49 minutes ago, Heisy said: GFS missed the phase with the southern vort pretty early and the N/S energy is farther W than euro. Here are the same two pieces of energy and there differences between both of the models at day 5. How we combine these two to get them to phase, tuck, and occlude at our latitude I don’t know. Randy will like my artistic improvements Also note the differences with the small Canadian vort that is N of the main northern stream disturbance on the euro vs what the GFS shows . We need the more amplified wave of the euro with the wave spacing of the Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The GFS trend that I referred to early this afternoon continues. It now has significant snow up to Martinsville Va. Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 gefs looks pretty crazy now. like 5" mean by hour 330 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 *Baffin Block *50/50 *trough going neutral in TN valley *Ridge near Boise 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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