March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Ok. It seems like you’re frustrated, but maybe I am interpreting wrong. Forecasting is hard.

no just the fact they say one thing on my local but models that are followed by the country they dont look too at all and they model hug in house models 

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Can’t say I blame them. Someone mentioned this over the weekend, I think, that models have been “losing” nice east coast storms in the mid range, they end up cutters cause the ridge just won’t let up. It’s been tough for long range forecasts all winter. 

the cutters are really bad this year yes. but for the last few seasons for winter forecasts models are way off as well as temps esp when they say 2 weeks form now very cold and a few days before they push temps back up delay the cold for a week and it happens all over again.

[Solution Man]

40 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are home. Look at the color of your backyard

My backyard is Jinormous

[midatlanticweather]

Nothingburger

 

[jayyy]

Still in phase 7. Not ideal for our snow chances. Hopefully we transition to 8 very shortly.

[Amped]

Destroys California with another 15" of precip

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

27 minutes ago, Amped said:

Destroys California with another 15" of precip

I heard today that the California Mountains have received 46 FEET of snow this winter so far. Another 2-3 feet expected this week.

[Ruin]

15 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

I heard today that the California Mountains have received 46 FEET of snow this winter so far. Another 2-3 feet expected this week.

some mountains will have snow till next winter they were saying 

[MDstorm]

Another run......another solution.

[Weather Will]

Interesting run on EURO for Wave 2 early next week. Very close to a big hit.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS compared to yesterday.

[CAPE]

The weekend storm threat is fading fast unless the coastal gets going sooner. At this point guidance generally depicts it deepening too far off the coast for our area. GEFS is closest, but as of now would be a nice event for NE PA and NE. 

The following wave for the 14th also has the look of late/offshore development on the ens means, but more time for that to adjust. Needless to say we are going to be working with marginal cold and heading into mid March, so at this point a favorable track and a stronger, more dynamic low will probably be required to realize significant frozen in the lowlands.

[snownut]

2 hours ago, Ruin said:

some mountains will have snow till next winter they were saying 

My 8th full year in the west and the cascades to my west have always had snow. 

(glaciers are common here in the 3 sisters bowls 25 miles to my west) 

So many of the higher western mountains have snow year round.  Washington State stays pretty solid snow covered in many areas. The snow cover diminishes north to south with CA mountains snow melting out "pretty" fast. 

Deep snow packs are common in June. Several mountain roads don't get plowed open until late May and usually are closed again in early November. 

I skied here July 3rd in 2017 at Mt Bachelor with 3-5 feet still above 8,500 feet   

Only in August & September are my views mostly rocky looking.   

If you love snow, moderately cold winters its hard to match the higher mountains in the west.  Lots of "snowbirds" here that go to AZ or Palm Spring areas during the long winters. The locals joke that we have 9 months of winter and 3 months of summer.  Reality it depends on location. You can easily ski in the morning, golf, bike or even lounge by the pool on a sunny May day with temps in the 70's.  And that can happen 15 miles apart! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 hours ago, Ruin said:

some mountains will have snow till next winter they were saying 

They always do

[CAPE]

Happy Spring.

[Ji]

The weekend storm threat is fading fast unless the coastal gets going sooner. At this point guidance generally depicts it deepening too far off the coast for our area. GEFS is closest, but as of now would be a nice event for NE PA and NE. 
The following wave for the 14th also has the look of late/offshore development on the ens means, but more time for that to adjust. Needless to say we are going to be working with marginal cold and heading into mid March, so at this point a favorable track and a stronger, more dynamic low will probably be required to realize significant frozen in the lowlands.

So the cold pattern advertised by the models all this time is a bust?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

So the cold pattern advertised by the models all this time is a bust?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Below average in mid March is in the 40s for highs. Not sure the models were ever advertising much below. What's more important is the setup- need to have a feed of cold enough/dry air and some serious lift. Dynamic  + evaporational cooling.

[Wonderdog]

Who would have thought. 

[CAPE]

That's a KU on the 6z GFS.

[Ji]

That's a KU on the 6z GFS.

It will end up being an FU

[Ji]

In all seriousness…one of these will likely hit us. I was hoping for earlier than later but it is what it is

[Scraff]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's a KU on the 6z GFS.

Nobody should look at the clown map. Looks at clown map. 

 

ETA: Someone gets fringed too. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS….nice 24 hour trends in snow mean.  Hopefully, it continues to increase as we go through this work week, no time left for another head fake.   All chips in for the final furlong of winter!

[frd]

21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS….nice 24 hour trends in snow mean.  Hopefully, it continues to increase as we go through this work week, no time left for another head fake.   All chips in for the final furlong of winter!

Only positive changes are for the highlands.  

[dallen7908]

[dallen7908]

1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

Perhaps they forgot to color in central MD?  Certainly chase-able.  The 6 UT ensembles are similar. 

[osfan24]

Wake me up when we are in the pink, white, or mint.

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

In all seriousness…one of these will likely hit us. I was hoping for earlier than later but it is what it is

Who are you now? Lol

[brooklynwx99]

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

[87storms]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

 

You forecasting for Brooklyn or DC?  Lol.  The potential is there and the Euro surface is inspiring, but verbatim that looks like a setup where the SS runs out ahead and we get a Miller B late developer.  Maybe Bmore could cash in if things pop quick enough...but that's a big maybe with that kind of setup.  I don't recall closed lows in the GL or upper Midwest being a good thing for the DMV...we really need that northern stream to dig further.  In fact, one thing that's been absent for a while is getting a clipper to dig far enough south to impact our region.