stormy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I am amused regarding the frantic following of models. They are as corrupted as the humans who create. Self proclaimed experts make proclamations nearly every run only to to proven wrong 6 hours later, but nobody remembers. We are running out of time except with elevation. Next winter will please as snow droughts are not successive. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Abysmal WB 18Z GEFS for the next 10 days. Most hyped pattern change ever for DMV. Congratulations to Northern PA Northwards. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I'll #neverforget the 12 hour period of model runs when I got to chase a pattern that was producing slightly above average snow between days 10 to 15.. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Abysmal WB 18Z GEFS for the next 10 days. Most hyped pattern change ever for DMV. Congratulations to Northern PA Northwards. why do you post these when they are bad? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, stormy said: I am amused regarding the frantic following of models. They are as corrupted as the humans who create. Self proclaimed experts make proclamations nearly every run only to to proven wrong 6 hours later, but nobody remembers. We are running out of time except with elevation. Next winter will please as snow droughts are not successive. But why do they consistently underperform in a “negative snow” direction? We continue to see possible SECS turn into cutters on the models within 5-7 days out or just some rain showers. But when was the last time a modeled cutter 5-7 days ended up being a SECS “in real life”? Even in the best of years, the best snowstorms are clearly seen pretty early on the models. Not going from cutter to snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, stormy said: I am amused regarding the frantic following of models. They are as corrupted as the humans who create. I like the alien models better anyways 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: why do you post these when they are bad? Because otherwise he would never post them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: But why do they consistently underperform in a “negative snow” direction? We continue to see possible SECS turn into cutters on the models within 5-7 days out or just some rain showers. But when was the last time a modeled cutter 5-7 days ended up being a SECS “in real life”? Even in the best of years, the best snowstorms are clearly seen pretty early on the models. Not going from cutter to snowstorm. Because our snow is bounded by 0 and we’re pretty close to the southern edge of where it snows in a grand sense even in a good winter. There are plenty of places further north where guidance underestimates snow at times on the whole. But some is perception bias. We remember the runs that snow and forget the many many many that don’t. Take right now…the vast majority is showing no snow. But the minority that shows snow is giving the perception “guidance is predicting snow” but at no time has our probability of snow across guidance reached 50% all winter. When taken in totality guidance hasn’t once predicted snow here all winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Because otherwise he would never post them. it dosent make sense posting a snowmap that dosent show snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 my local news weather guys are not buying the cold air below normal at all they have me at average or slightly above now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: it dosent make sense posting a snowmap that dosent show snow? Right, but if he only posted snow maps that did show snow, he would never get to post any so....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: But why do they consistently underperform in a “negative snow” direction? We continue to see possible SECS turn into cutters on the models within 5-7 days out or just some rain showers. But when was the last time a modeled cutter 5-7 days ended up being a SECS “in real life”? Even in the best of years, the best snowstorms are clearly seen pretty early on the models. Not going from cutter to snowstorm. I do not claim to be an expert, but this is the third La Nina year. That is very unusual. I believe the models are trying to assimilate a pattern without La Nina and the resultant persistent SER. This would be a tremendous winter without La Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 That gfs bomb ots is fine where it is at range. I don’t believe it will go that far ots because record warmth waters will keep the baroclinic boundary closer to the coast. But the way it bombs? I believe it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Because our snow is bounded by 0 and we’re pretty close to the southern edge of where it snows in a grand sense even in a good winter. There are plenty of places further north where guidance underestimates snow at times on the whole. But some is perception bias. We remember the runs that snow and forget the many many many that don’t. Take right now…the vast majority is showing no snow. But the minority that shows snow is giving the perception “guidance is predicting snow” but at no time has our probability of snow across guidance reached 50% all winter. When taken in totality guidance hasn’t once predicted snow here all winter. Understood-Would you agree that guidance 8-10 days out has shown quite a bit of snow a few times this winter for RVA to DC only to have it change inside of 7 days with little or no snow? But rarely do you see models show cutters 8-10 days out and then this region ends up having a SECS with snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 28 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That gfs bomb ots is fine where it is at range. I don’t believe it will go that far ots because record warmth waters will keep the baroclinic boundary closer to the coast. But the way it bombs? I believe it. the gfs and the CMC were both showing their own versions of this bomb 3-4 days ago when we had that fun night...the GFS was focused on the 15th...while CMC was focused on the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Understood-Would you agree that guidance 8-10 days out has shown quite a bit of snow a few times this winter for RVA to DC only to have it change inside of 7 days with little or no snow? But rarely do you see models show cutters 8-10 days out and then this region ends up having a SECS with snow. There were several times where one or two model runs showed a snowstorm day 8-10. But if you just count the Gfs/euro/ggem there are 8 op runs a day. If 1-2 show a snowstorm that actually means most guidance didn’t and taken as a whole was saying it wouldn’t snow. Never not once was the majority of guidance over a 24-48 hour period showing a snowstorm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 18z eps looks more amped and it digs more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 WB 18Z EPS and Control much better than GEFS. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @ravensrule your thoughts on this? Looks like it saw me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 The guidance are just tools. Some know how to use tools. Some are tools. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Ruin said: my local news weather guys are not buying the cold air below normal at all they have me at average or slightly above now lol. To be fair, climate prediction center was only predicting a 30-50% chance of below normal temps for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, mappy said: To be fair, climate prediction center was only predicting a 30-50% chance of below normal temps for next week thats what im saying no one knows what the fuck is going on. they have mid 40s or higher for the next 10 days and no sign of any snow maybe showers of rain on the day we are looking at the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ruin said: thats what im saying no one knows what the fuck is going on. they have mid 40s or higher for the next 10 days and no sign of any snow maybe showers of rain on the day we are looking at the storm Ok. It seems like you’re frustrated, but maybe I am interpreting wrong. Forecasting is hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, mappy said: Ok. It seems like you’re frustrated, but maybe I am interpreting wrong. Forecasting is hard. Even the pros at LWX aren’t touching this at all. Mt Holly doesn’t think we’ll (the entire MA) get much snow out of this from the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: Even the pros at LWX aren’t touching this at all. Mt Holly doesn’t think we’ll (the entire MA) get much snow out of this from the first storm. Can’t say I blame them. Someone mentioned this over the weekend, I think, that models have been “losing” nice east coast storms in the mid range, they end up cutters cause the ridge just won’t let up. It’s been tough for long range forecasts all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Even the pros at LWX aren’t touching this at all. Mt Holly doesn’t think we’ll (the entire MA) get much snow out of this from the first storm. They agree with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 It’s rarely right, but fuck it’s been consistent for DAYS. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS looks better, pac ULL is more west which should allow more western ridging to build 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Take us home @stormtracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, Solution Man said: Take us home @stormtracker we are home. Look at the color of your backyard 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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