Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Just now, mappy said: Probably. I honestly stop tracking snow come March 1st I'm gonna make my new cutoff DST...Nothing more annoying for tracking than waiting an hour longer than usual, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But it looks like almost a carbon copy of the 6z GFS at 90? It's subtle but compare the trajectory of the upper level feature coming out of CO/WY on the NAM and the GFS. GFS NAM NAM is digging a bit and the GFS is lifting. The key to our success is the track of that feature...we need that to take a more amplified but further south track. Those are the solutions that lead to snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 GFS delayed. Probably broken trying to compute the Blizzard we are getting this weekend. 1 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 23 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Just last year, I measured a couple of inches on April 18, when 2-6” fell across the eastern panhandle of WV and western MD. Since moving to WV in 2006, I’ve received: 15” on March 21, 2018 9.4” on March 19-20, 2015 4.1” on March 25, 2013 6.0 on March 17, 2007 Yes. March is a snow month for us. It is harder for the coastal plain. But we can still score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Aren't yall excited that starting Sunday, we'll be up until 2:30 am instead of 1:30 am watching the Euro? There's nothing like a 12z 11:30 am GFS run. Waiting an extra hour for the Euro causes an additional 1,000 March heart attacks each year. It's devastating for farmers trying to feed the pigs and look at the 06z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 @stormtracker basically this illustrates what we need.... This is 24 hours after those plots we were comparing...and its game over on the GFS because of where the upper low is. From here its going to track southeast because of the block but its too far north...the suppression it would take to even get that under us from there would have to squash the wave anyways. That wont work. The runs that produce a chance at snow here have the upper feature located near 2 on that map...with a SE track from there. NAM appeared closer to that track than 1 with that feature. I really think that is the key to this. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 ICON went north compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 ICON is the fail solution...more amplified wave 1 but isn't cold enough so we get CCB rain lol....and it squashes wave 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 ICON is in between track 1 and 2 with the upper feature and predictably is a very close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 ICON is the fail solution...more amplified wave 1 but isn't cold enough so we get CCB rain lol....and it squashes wave 2. Good thing it’s the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ICON is in between track 1 and 2 with the upper feature and predictably is a very close miss. Was about to ask about the ICON with how close it gets to a snow storm for MA. It also seems significantly faster with the upper low than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 This is the h5 track we need…from that control run that snowed on us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Good thing it’s the ICON. Just pointing out the scenarios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is the h5 track we need…from that control run that snowed on us Ok, will be looking for that in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 CMC big improvement with western ridging and primary digging more 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: CMC big improvement with western ridging and primary digging more Yeah, CMC much improved with the ULL pass. Probably need even souther, but a definite improvement vs 00Z: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 i think wave 2 is our best bet. a strong wave 1 might get us an inch or two and clobber New England but nobody wants a 1-2 inch storm in march. lets see what CMC does with wave 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 just dont see how anything will dig with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Gfs looks significantly further south out to hour 99 with the main low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Gfs looks significantly further south out to hour 99 with the main low. A tad. Still not near enough, but it's a start hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 We know how this is likely to play out…wave 1 goes just to our north but is intense enough to squash wave 2. 9 minutes ago, Ji said: i think wave 2 is our best bet. a strong wave 1 might get us an inch or two and clobber New England but nobody wants a 1-2 inch storm in march. lets see what CMC does with wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Yeah, a bit souther than 6z and we get precip with 0 850, but nothing on the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, a bit souther than 6z and we get precip with 0 850, but nothing on the clown maps. i cant think of worse track to try to steal snow from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, a bit souther than 6z and we get precip with 0 850, but nothing on the clown maps. souther? it redevelops like in Northern NJ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 On to the second potential....s/w up in Montana looks to be diving in a bit...limited energy in the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Just now, Ji said: souther? it redevelops like in Northern NJ lol h5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Ok, the s/w (which is now closed off) is starting to be forced south by our fail storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Putting all my chips on the week of the 20th Hail Mary storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Ok, sw opened up, but still being force SSE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 well no surprise--the ultimate fail scenario worked wave 1 is too far north but it strong enough and wont move out in time to kill wave 2. no snow from either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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