BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here you go guys.. good step 120hrs.. fine Hr 126…what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Hr 126…what happened Out to 120.. looks like we want to build a CAD wedge to plenty of blocking to the north.. like I said, differences between NAM and GFS in the Pacific is that there's still plenty of time to trend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Out to 120.. looks like we want to build a CAD wedge to plenty of blocking to the north.. like I said, differences between NAM and GFS in the Pacific is that there's still plenty of time to trend. Nice. But it’s not cold enough Chuck. A wedge is great but if you are wedging cool maritime 546 air it’s just colder rain. It’s really just new ways to tell the same story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 New England is loving this run. They get obliterated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nice. But it’s not cold enough Chuck. A wedge is great but if you are wedging cool maritime 546 air it’s just colder rain. It’s really just new ways to tell the same story. It’s cold enough for a front end thump or mix east of the mountains, verbatim. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 New England is loving this run. They get obliterated. It’s not even the same storm lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s not even the same storm lol 18z GFS a disaster? Not seeing digital blue over your house through mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Glossing over the 12z suite, that follow up wave looks like the one to pay attention to. For the late week system, it looks like snow showers as the upper level low swings would be a win for that one…which is kind of how things typically work in our favor during a pattern change (ie, cold front swings through with a test taste and then a follow up wave). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Verbatim HH GEFS is pretty decent for Mount PSU northward/westward. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Something new that came up on todays model runs is a second wave following closely on the first one’s heels, not the one that comes almost a week later. Ensembles signal is faint but its there. Could get interesting if we get a follow up wave timed well with cold air after the first. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Something new that came up on todays model runs is a second wave following closely on the first one’s heels, not the one that comes almost a week later. Ensembles signal is faint but its there. Could get interesting if we get a follow up wave timed well with cold air after the first. Yeah esp the CMC ens. I made a post about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah esp the CMC ens. I made a post about it. Trends are our friends this week, finally 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Trends are our friends this week, finally Better late than never? Or maybe just better never lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I haven’t read all day. Can anybody tell me what’s going on without using the words shit, suck or fuck? If so I’ll feel good about where we stand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I haven’t read all day. Can anybody tell me what’s going on without using the words shit, suck or fuck? If so I’ll feel good about where we stand. Euro ensembles at 12z look really good. 18z gfs was a hot mess for 95 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I haven’t read all day. Can anybody tell me what’s going on without using the words shit, suck or fuck? If so I’ll feel good about where we stand. Looks like it might fucking snow in your yard. Sorry. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Let’s see if the season long trend will reverse. Hell the season is about out of time so maybe seasonal trend will be switching and models past 3 days May switch to not sucking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I haven’t read all day. Can anybody tell me what’s going on without using the words shit, suck or fuck? If so I’ll feel good about where we stand. I scrolled through 18z op GFS and found one frame at hr 330 that had digital blue at your location. One. So avoid looking at it even while shitting in the sitter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks like it might fucking snow in your yard. Sorry. Oh SHIT! That SUCKS! Only in @WinterWxLuvryard!? FUCK this hobby!! I’m out. This place is total wreckage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Verbatim HH GEFS is pretty decent for Mount PSU northward/westward. Is that a low or a weak high? I'm kidding, but I think a Miller B needs to get serious quickly off the coast before we can really ever benefit, at least in this relatively wonky setup. Funny thing is that it's still only Sunday and this system is 5+ days out...so who knows what could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I haven’t read all day. Can anybody tell me what’s going on without using the words shit, suck or fuck? If so I’ll feel good about where we stand. Here’s a good summary for the I-81 (and west) corridor that I found: 81 and western MD storm threat summary 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 23 minutes ago, mappy said: Euro ensembles at 12z look really good. 18z gfs was a hot mess for 95 It looked better (the Euro ensembles), but unless I'm interpreting the nuances wrong, we could use a 50 mile south shift of that ULL: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023030512&fh=150 I guess we'll see if 12z was a trend or a wobble. Given that track, I'm kinda surprised the precip shield is as healthy as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 hours ago, snowmagnet said: So if I'm looking for snow the first week of April, should I opt for Vermont or Montreal/ Quebec area? Montreal and Quebec City are on the river and get pretty warm by April. Snowpack is likely to be gone. Same with the valleys in Vermont. The spine of the Green Mountains in VT will very likely still have snow. Places like Killington and Stowe. But even there is can get very warm at the base once into April. If you want to be sure to see snow go to NW Maine. Places around Sugarloaf will always have snow otg into early April and hold snowpack to May some years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: It looked better (the Euro ensembles), but unless I'm interpreting the nuances wrong, we could use a 50 mile south shift of that ULL: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023030512&fh=150 I guess we'll see if 12z was a trend or a wobble. Given that track, I'm kinda surprised the precip shield is as healthy as it is. Better/good is all relative. It still shows signs of hope for those who want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Something new that came up on todays model runs is a second wave following closely on the first one’s heels, not the one that comes almost a week later. Ensembles signal is faint but its there. Could get interesting if we get a follow up wave timed well with cold air after the first. 18z gefs really seeing it now too! As wave one trends less amplified (at least in the Midwest) it’s leaving breathing room for a wave that was getting squashed out of existence before on guidance. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Close (18z)Let’s see what 00z has in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 despite primary digging less GEFS had more coastals because the ULL was noticeably less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 18z euro slight changes at 90 but their good. Less amplified. More zonal. 50/50 slightly west. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 19 minutes ago, jayyy said: Close (18z) Let’s see what 00z has in store Sorry we only do HD maps here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 18z euro slight changes at 90 but their good. Less amplified. More zonal. 50/50 slightly west. I thought you were out for storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now