Amped Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Yea if the initial primary tracks far enough S the incoming energy behind the event which showed up today on the euro would act as a kicker. The low would bomb and then track ESE before going N. Kind of like the JMA. Right now for any hope we need the primary shortwave to track farther S . Agreed that's key to us getting a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea if the initial primary tracks far enough S the incoming energy behind the event which showed up today on the euro would act as a kicker. The low would bomb and then track ESE before going N. Kind of like the JMA. Right now for any hope we need the primary shortwave to track farther S . all the ensembles dug the sw more as it reached the east coast i think that's exactly what we want, digging when it reaches the plains/EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: all the ensembles dug the sw more as it reached the east coast i think that's exactly what we want, digging when it reaches the plains/EC thats because we saw more western ridging on ensembles today, it makes it digs more 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Next week….I want to take beer pics in a whiteout! For now…damn it’s nice out. Tailgating for another happy hour GFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: “It’s the pac” is a matter of degrees. But for those that want to stick to that, explain why we are doing worse wrt snow lately than previous -pdo periods when the pac was every bit as hostile as it’s been lately. I don’t have an argument either way. However, from a statistical variance perspective, it is impossible to definitively construe an argument either way due to extremely limited sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: I won’t don’t have an argument either way. However, from a statistical variance perspective, it is impossible to definitively construe an argument either way due to extremely limited sample size. Fair. But we’re getting close to the max length of all prior periods even close to this bad. So if this continues much longer that argument starts losing validity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Goes to show how quickly modeling changes. Went from a MECS 2.5 days ago, to a SD Blizzard cutting well into MN, and now a Miller B too far east. Seasonal trend could be our friend there. Could end up in the sweet spot by game time. I know there’s blocking and a 50/50 in play, which could shunt the storm too far south / east, but I’d WAY rather be in this spot at day 6-7 instead of it showing a NYC to Boston blizzard. The trend all year is for things to become more amped / earlier phasing as we get closer. Of course we could over-amp and we’re screwed in a totally different way, but if a Miller b is going to show up as a fail at this range, I’d way rather models show a flat solution to our south than some amped bomb at our latitude. Model spread is still significant. We’re going to have to be patient over the coming days as tough as that is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 In the 60s, these patterns used to really deliver. 18z NAM looks good, imo. It's really favorable in the upper levels so I'm not going away. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Where's @brooklynwx99. I hope he wasn't ran off. Really appreciate his analysis and viewpoint. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JVscotch Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: In the 60s, these patterns used to really deliver. 18z NAM looks good in my opinion. It's really favorable in the upper levels so I'm not going away. Exactly what I thought. Better than 12z NAM and each of the main globals (not ensembles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Where's @brooklynwx99. I hope he wasn't ran off. Really appreciate his analysis and viewpoint. Maybe he got tired of dealing with the MA forum. He still posts in the NE forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe he got tired of dealing with the MA forum. He still posts in the NE forum He went back to a forum that knows they have snow on the way. Can you blame him? I’m heading over there myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: He went back to a forum that knows they have snow on the way. Can you blame him? I’m heading over there myself. hahaha honestly, you got it down pat. I do think that you guys can certainly see appreciable snow out of this, but it will be tougher with a more Miller B type setup however, if the wave digs enough like on the EPS, you guys can cash in, would just take more doing. however, this kind of 500mb setup favors NYC northward we will see, though! there are 6 more days and hopefully we can get this thing to dig and really bomb out for a DCA-NYC-BOS storm 15 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: hahaha honestly, you got it down pat. I do think that you guys can certainly see appreciable snow out of this, but it will be tougher with a more Miller B type setup however, if the wave digs enough like on the EPS, you guys can cash in, would just take more doing. however, this kind of 500mb setup favors NYC northward we will see, though! there are 6 more days and hopefully we can get this thing to dig and really bomb out for a DCA-NYC-BOS storm if the digging of the wave becomes a trend then like u said we're in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 There are worse places we could be at this range IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Too far east but same idea applies for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Too far east but same idea applies for me us wanting it to trend west and dig is a good place at 6-7 days out imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Better set of runs today than yesterday. Could be that the models are initializing the block more accurately and we are starting to enter mjo 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 @stormtrackeryou have the mic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 After today 60 degrees.. it's going to be a colder pattern. Models are running a lot like that, so I don't see why the SE ridge wouldn't trend less with blocking to the north.. It's usually easier said than done: 1 pattern is greater than another pattern, but I think this gravitating south to the gulf stream could make sense. If we can get this storm to happen on the 11th or before we should be fine.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Anyone bother checking the 12z JMA? Ji? @mitchnick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 12 2 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The JMA with the primary off Ocean City and a secondary over the Bahamas??? (jk) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The JMA with the primary off Ocean City and a secondary over the Bahamas??? (jk) I think that's a follow-up tropical system!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The JMA with the primary off Ocean City and a secondary over the Bahamas??? (jk) That's a low forming along the baroclinic boundary. Pretty cold air hitting the Gulf stream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 18z GFS still way different from the NAM out west, will need to be worked out. https://ibb.co/sscbm9y big difference for 69hr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18z GFS still way different from the NAM out west, will need to be worked out. https://ibb.co/sscbm9y The GFS says no precip really at all. I’m not even sure what we are watching sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Here you go guys.. good step 120hrs.. fine 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 So if I'm looking for snow the first week of April, should I opt for Vermont or Montreal/ Quebec area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The JMA has been rock solid for days at this point. It could be rock solid wrong. But it hasnt wavered. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now