BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: GEFS better Than 6z GEFS or the op? Or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Words of the day: we are headed in the right direction 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Than 6z GEFS or the op? Or both? 6z, the op caved to euro though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Great pattern change….WB 12Z GFS thru Day 10. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, Solution Man said: Words of the day: we are headed in the right direction We’ll see. That primary weaker or flatter still messes up the delicate thermals. But yes better than 24 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Great pattern change….WB 12Z GFS thru Day 10. What did it show 12 hours ago? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: What did it show 12 hours ago? When have they been right this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 I am being facetious, I hope we get something the next few weeks. I am just going to have to stop tracking overnight until we get a clear threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The GFS is under doing the CAD imo. We have north winds for 2 days leading up to any precip that makes it to the area. And we end up with pretty toasty surface temps according to the GFS. I am not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: We’ll see. That primary weaker or flatter still messes up the delicate thermals. But yes better than 24 hours ago Was in church praying for the heathen GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 GEFS is definitely better, deeper 50/50 and more interaction with ULL in NW US and EPAC which builds more ridging in the west, and also less meridonal flow in WC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Great pattern change….WB 12Z GFS thru Day 10. Ironically alot of that in PA is from this Tuesday's system...which as a side note everyone in the PA sub has pretty much glazed over. Could potentially be the best hit of the run...doubt it as the pattern is loaded going forward, but it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Great pattern change….WB 12Z GFS thru Day 10. That snowpack building in the NE will pay us big CAD dividends next month. Our April rains will be a lot colder! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS is under doing the CAD imo. We have north winds for 2 days leading up to any precip that makes it to the area. And we end up with pretty toasty surface temps according to the GFS. I am not buying it. 2 days of a N flow prior get negated once the flow reverses fwiw. We aren't talking 3rd week of January molasses arctic hp stuck at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS….I am thrilled tracking our 1004MB low. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Some wild solutions at 12z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 days of a N flow prior get negated once the flow reverses fwiw. We aren't talking 3rd week of January molasses arctic hp stuck at the surface. Yes - and the SST's off the OBX are still very warm. Would not take much of a flow from he SE or SSE to scour the CAD that's being referenced. We've done that dance too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 days of a N flow prior get negated once the flow reverses fwiw. We aren't talking 3rd week of January molasses arctic hp stuck at the surface. While I agree about time of year. That is a pretty cold air source up in Canada. Single digits to below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 days of a N flow prior get negated once the flow reverses fwiw. We aren't talking 3rd week of January molasses arctic hp stuck at the surface. And this year we didn't even have that in January, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: While I agree about time of year. That is a pretty cold air source up in Canada. Single digits to below zero. If those temps you noted were saturated in our CAD zones I would agree. But just having them up in Canada and not locked in down here won't negate the return flow effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS….I am thrilled tracking our 1004MB low. Are we complaining about this? This is the best run yet . Let’s hope it keeps trending better 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Still six days away, right? Plenty of time for the block to assert itself and push the redevelopment to a better spot. In theory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 42 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Great pattern change….WB 12Z GFS thru Day 10. Snow map are correct 2 % of the time below 45 degree North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, frd said: Snow map are correct 2 % of the time below 45 degree North Right, they are usually a lot more than what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 33 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Are we complaining about this? This is the best run yet . Let’s hope it keeps trending better We haven’t seen the 540 line near us since Jan 2016. I’ll take it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Strong signal on both GEFS and GEPS for another miller b type system from a NS wave diving in around the 15th. But this time the boundary is further south so we have a better chance. Then both have what might be the best threat around the 17-20 from a system being ejected from the pac further south with a cold airmass in place for once. That’s more indicative of a setup where a primary can stay south of us. After that signs the pattern continues but by then climo is becoming really hostile for most of this region so I might continue to track threats after in the PA forum. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Strong signal on both GEFS and GEPS for another miller b type system from a NS wave diving in around the 15th. But this time the boundary is further south so we have a better chance. Then both have what might be the best threat around the 17-20 from a system being ejected from the pac further south with a cold airmass in place for once. That’s more indicative of a setup where a primary can stay south of us. After that signs the pattern continues but by then climo is becoming really hostile for most of this region so I might continue to track threats after in the PA forum. This is the period I have liked, just beyond whatever happens on the 11-12th. Pretty close on the heels, but a nice look here on the CMC mean. Fresh cold air in place. That's what us lowlanders like to see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Quick illustration why that wave around the 17-18th is different. that western trough isn’t the same. It’s a system ejecting off the pac (y) but it can’t amplify out west. Look at the pacific Z, it’s actually trying to pump a ridge in the west. That trough is just temporary as a system cuts across. Between the flow behind X and ahead of Z, Y has to kick out and track east not north and there is cold in front of it. Yes I know it’s March 17 my turn just pointing out why that is the best synoptic setup for us to get a flush hit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is the period I have liked, just beyond whatever happens on the 11-12th. Pretty close on the heels, but a nice look here on the CMC mean. Fresh cold air in place. That's what us lowlanders like to see. Agree. As the period comes into better focus it seems guidance indicates 2 waves in that period. The first seems to favor another miller b with a NS wave diving SE into the trough. The next favors a pac wave ejecting out of the southwest but this time into a flow unlikely to cut. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 16 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: On the scale of importance, there are just too many more important factors in life to consider before moving just for snow, imo This was back when my other factors were few and I only had myself to consider 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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