jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 I'm going by op scenario which I'm praying is a northerly outlierSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkIf I wanted any model to be over amplifying the initial wave at this range, it’d be the OP Euro.Rooting for that EPS mean depiction all day long.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 If I wanted any model to be over amplifying the initial wave at this range, it’d be the OP Euro.Rooting for that EPS mean depiction all day long..Yep better that op now is more north than eps. In fact if the euro gave us a big snow tonight but eps was north of it...it be more unsettling!Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: A Miller B in a nina should be normal but this winter you'd hardly expect that, lol But March 2018 sure had one that left us with wind (in fact it was 5 years ago Thursday I believe...I posted about the wind knocking down a stop sign!) Mar 1 2018 was very windy, caused a variety of damage, I watched it I was still living there in Dale City at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Gfs and euro not on same pageSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs and euro not on same page Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Nope. GFS look like a cold front passage. That takes a long time. I know it’s not that but that is what the surface shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The GFS op is still phasing in too much of the NS energy associated with the vort lobe in western Canada. The GEFS has been depicting a similar degree of interaction, but backed off some at 0z. The end result was improved. Subtle differences in these wave interactions make big differences later on with the outcome. Long way to go. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 If we can get this thing to come earlier, it would be better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6 hours ago, Heisy said: Don’t think I’ve seen this big of a difference between these two models at this range in my entire life. One is obviously wrong, likely gfs since euro has support from Ukie and icon . This is purely anecdotal and very much isolated to winter weather events, but ever since the the major upgrade in 2019, the GFS has been kicking the euro's ass when it comes to these long range disagreements. Look at the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: This is purely anecdotal and very much isolated to winter weather events, but ever since the the major upgrade in 2019, the GFS has been kicking the euro's ass when it comes to these long range disagreements. Look at the last storm. I am not sure the verification scores say that. Too lazy to look back but I thought someone posted this a while back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6z gefs was a disaster compared to 00zSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z gefs was a disaster compared to 00z Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk they were pretty similar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z gefs was a disaster compared to 00z Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk GEPS didn't waiver and then there's the eps. GFS family still seems to be playing catchup with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Huge differences still even at 120 hr lead times. One would think they’d start coming into better agreement by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 WB 6Z EPS compared to GEFS at Day 6, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 WB EPS Day 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS compared to GEFS at Day 6, Ok so not THAT different. Primary into OH, then maybe redevelop somewhere off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ok so not THAT different. Primary into OH, then maybe redevelop somewhere off the coast. Yeah, really not that different in the grand scheme of things. Especially for a 5-6 day lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 That primary is still way too far north. Need to see that start adjusting south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, osfan24 said: That primary is still way too far north. Need to see that start adjusting south. Yeah, ideally would be TN but can even take KY for parts of this area. But OH is too far north - thermals would be wrecked and it’d redevelop too far north for our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ok so not THAT different. Primary into OH, then maybe redevelop somewhere off the coast. Putting aside what we want to happen do you see the primary trending south based on the h5? Is that even possible? Seems like we haven’t seen any recent guidance that does that. We’ve seen it weaken from the CO cuter but that’s about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If we can get this thing to come earlier, it would be better. I have actually never heard that before. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I have actually never heard that before. Bro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Putting aside what we want to happen do you see the primary trending south based on the h5? Is that even possible? Seems like we haven’t seen any recent guidance that does that. We’ve seen it weaken from the CO cuter but that’s about it Maybe with a stronger 50/50 we get more confluence. But if the wave ejects from the W too strong/amped, it can’t trend S 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 ICON looks to be flattening out compared to previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: ICON looks to be flattening out compared to previous runs yup, pretty much zonal out west now 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 I am not sure the verification scores say that. Too lazy to look back but I thought someone posted this a while back. Correct. Euro has a better verification score 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Lower heights so far on 12Z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 12Z ICON gives us another way to fail. Transfer to the south and too far off coast….But I would rather fail this way and like the south trend in transfer. It is progressive because there is another wave now kicking it out…update: second wave washes out to the south. I don’t think the ICON can handle the pattern. But SER is not the issue this run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The pattern is still progressing as I expected but about 48-72 hours slower. This isn’t a can kick really it’s just that the initial wave is going to be slower and more amplified. Whether it’s over the upper Midwest or off New England, that more amplified wave 1 slows down the pattern progression. So the next handoff from the pac, wave 2, looks more like the 17-20 v 14-16th. Yes I know that’s a big deal because if the time of year but it is what it is. It’s hard for me to post images where I am but if you look at the gefs and eps on March 16 you can see the next wave ejecting from the west but this time with lower heights in front of it and the SER gone. That’s why that is the better threat. Plain and simple. The first wave ejects with too much warmth left over from the previous pattern in front of it. So we can kiss the primary and any WAA snow scenarios goodbye. That leaves us needing a perfect transfer and secondary solution. How often does that work out here any time of year? Possible yes. Likely no. There are way more win scenarios with wave 2. So far no ens guidance is indicating ridging issues in front of wave 2. The fail would be if we start to see too much separation between wave 1 and 2 and we begin to see a SER start to show between those waves. As soon as that trend starts it’s game over and I’ll begin to write my book. But there is reason to believe with the pac forcing opposite what its been due to a high amp mjo 8/1 this time will be different. If it’s not I have the perfect conclusion to my novel. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 GFS dffferences begin at hour 84. Trof is less deeper and more progressive with the s/w we are watching. Much stronger s/w coming down from Canada to the WA coast 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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