Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Plenty of time for block shift south Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Yes indeed! On the 0z GEFS, once the storm redevelops on the Mid Atlantic coast it crawls to the north east. Saturday at 10 am the mean low position is at the southern tip of the DelMarVa. It takes until 10 pm to get to Atlantic City, NJ. It is still just off of the central NJ coast at 4 am on Sunday. If this coastal redevelops at the right location, the slow movement could make this very interesting for many of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The 0z Canadian Ensemble has the same idea as the 0z GEFS. The 0z Canadian Ensemble develops the coastal, but the mean low track is further offshore as it moves northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 only at hour 60 and euro's already digging less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, AdamHLG said: I have to ask. Are we done here? Forget fantasies every 10 days. Last real storm was 2016. It used to be every 3 years. This is bad but is this permanent? I loved this winter hobby since 1991 but I fear it’s over. Sorry for being a Deb. Needed to vent. This winter sucked and this season is over. Better to face it, look into the sun angle, and walk it off. . Nah. We have been stuck in a suck ass Nina for 3 years. And I know PSU will say that we dont usually do this bad in Nina's. And he is right as far as this cesspool of a winter goes. But I am almost 55 years old. And Nina's suck. They just do. They are Midwest specials. Always have been. And always will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 45 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: On the 0z GEFS, once the storm redevelops on the Mid Atlantic coast it crawls to the north east. Problem is the thermals would be completely wrecked at that point. A jump from OH to OC isnt gonna cut it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 can't understate this, HUGE changes this run, digging even more than 0z last night 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Euro much weaker energy heading east and still has the completely different evolution vs gfs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Euro vs gfs at same hour like wth lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 It’s trying to pull a Ukie and retrograding all that energy even farther back into pac which gives us weaker wave headed east….Difference between gfs and euro still astronomical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 This run is going to cook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Don’t think I’ve seen this big of a difference between these two models at this range in my entire life. One is obviously wrong, likely gfs since euro has support from Ukie and icon . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 This run is going to cookPrimary too far N, likely will destroy NE once it redevelops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Euro is a few showers followed by a dry slot. Good night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 that still was an amazing change on euro, we were close to being hammered hopefully it holds at 12zs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 I’d take this! 0z Euro Clown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 19 minutes ago, Heisy said: Primary too far N, likely will destroy NE once it redevelops . A Miller B in a nina should be normal but this winter you'd hardly expect that, lol But March 2018 sure had one that left us with wind (in fact it was 5 years ago Thursday I believe...I posted about the wind knocking down a stop sign!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 EPS has improved, looks less meridonal(it digs less and is less amped) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 EPS is a lot better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Stolen from NE Thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 WB 0Z EPS 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 All models trended much better tonight and we are solidly back in the game. Time to sleep well until 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: This run is going to cook thermals Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Been tracking snow long enough as a NY native to know this setup is absolutely prime for the NYC metro into SNE. The NW suburbs of NYC from NE NJ to the Lower Hudson valley through CT are going to get buried under 2+ feet if tonight’s euro is remotely correct. Growing up in that area, coastal jumps to this general vicinity off OC and a crawling, deepening low means a MAJOR storm for them; a blizzard at that. We need the primary to track way further south for our latitude to score with this. The thing is.. this time… we actually have the mechanism in place to allow such a trend to potentially unfold. (What the EPS mean shows versus the OP which tracks the primary further north and redevelops a coastal further north off OC)Not saying we hit flush… but areas NW of I-95 are very much in the game from DCA north. The fail risk is pretty high here though. March 15-17th still seems to be our best chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 WB 0Z EPSNice spread of MSLP on that ensemble. Have to love the complete change in evolution among models. Our first look fails, and we end up with a different type of threat altogether. Issue is… it’s a Miller B. We all know the easiest way to fail with Miller B’s and who they typically favor. Long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Stolen from NE Thread. Just a small difference between the OP and ensemble mean with where the coastal develops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Euro is a few showers followed by a dry slot. Good night. The Euro OP is a no go for us and a major SNE special…. But the EPS mean is way further south with where it pops the coastal (off the coast at the NC SC border) and then absolutely bombs out off the VA coast as it heads NE. Big difference for our area between those outcomes. Coastal pop near ocean city = fuck you to uscoastal pop near South Carolina = we’re in the gameCoastal pops at 150 - 6.25 days from now. FINALLY within 7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Am I seeing this correctly? Primary tracks to Kentucky and then a coastal develops off the coast near the NC / SC border? If a coastal were to pop down there and bomb out / crawl as depicted, we have a shot. If the primary gets to Ohio and develops near ocean city, we’re fucked and PHL to BOS is buried. .Yea devastating for us. We need the block 5050 to be superstrong and get the primary ideally in Tennessee worse case Kentucky so we can at least get a front end dumpSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Yea devastating for us. We need the block 5050 to be superstrong and get the primary ideally in Tennessee so we can at least get a front end dumpSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkNot really sure that mean, if it played out exactly as depicted, would be “devastating” for us. If a coastal were to pop off the SC coastline and bomb out near Virginia, I’m pretty positive my area would get a warning level event. The ensemble mean tracks the primary to Kentucky. Now… the OP would certainly be devastating as it pops the coastal near ocean city and it bombs out way too late. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 -PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Not really sure that mean, if it played out exactly as depicted, would be “devastating” for us. If a coastal were to pop off the SC coastline and bomb out near Virginia, I’m pretty positive my area would get a warning level event. Now… the OP would certainly be devastating as it pops the coastal near ocean city and it bombs out way too late. .I'm going by op scenario which I'm praying is a northerly outlierSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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