CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12z EPS is essentially the same as 0z for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 EPS favors a NW track. Same ensembles who gave us a 40% Chance for 6 inches or more of snow 120 hours for the March 4th event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 46 minutes ago, Ji said: The short pump joke was funny one time 5 years ago And if we get a model run or two that brings the digital blue back to our area it will be funny again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Almost identical to 0z. womp womp lowlands, congrats western highlands, NW burbs still in the game. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Almost identical to 0z. womp womp lowlands, congrats western highlands, NW burbs still in the game. Looking at the time stamp and counting today still 9 days out…I got nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Almost identical to 0z. womp womp lowlands, congrats western highlands, NW burbs still in the game. How do you come to that conclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 24 minutes ago, jaydreb said: EPS favors a NW track. sadly the damn story of this year north west ends up to a apps cutter then to a lake cutter im tired of this and the south east ridge. one of my local news weather forecasts is saying for the so called cold period isnt cold at all the lowest temps they have for extended forecast is 43. meaning slightly below average but most of the highs are mid 40s to upper 40s and for the told frame of this storm they have mid 50s for southern PA. so yeah sadly if this goes north west its gonna start to torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ruin said: sadly the damn story of this year north west ends up to a apps cutter then to a lake cutter im tired of this and the south east ridge. one of my local news weather forecasts is saying for the so called cold period isnt cold at all the lowest temps they have for extended forecast is 43. meaning slightly below average but most of the highs are mid 40s to upper 40s and for the told frame of this storm they have mid 50s for southern PA. so yeah sadly if this goes north west its gonna start to torch This time of year with blocking , if a low tracks south of us it will be cold enough to snow. Low 40s and sun turns into low 30s if there's a system taking a good track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 WB 12Z EPS…Better than 12z yesterday; still in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 WB 12Z EPS…Better than 12z yesterday; still in the game.How does snow map compare to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 We always crap on models when they show snowstorms in a bad pattern…like phase 6 lolWhy can’t we do the same when they show rainstorms in good patterns? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 WB 12Z EPS yesterday…about the same as today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Same ensembles who gave us a 40% Chance for 6 inches or more of snow 120 hours for the March 4th event I like how your last post said you’re not worried it’ll go south at 00z and then you come back with the pessimism less than an hour later. When the snow chances arise, so does the old Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 42 minutes ago, jaydreb said: EPS favors a NW track. This is looking like a Miller B where we usually get screwed unless secondary forms far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 WB 12Z EPS…so if it reforms just in the right spot off the coast (far enough south and not inland) we can get wrap around and avoid being dry slotted. Note: we don’t do complicated well in the DMV. Will need more luck than we have the last two years put together to pull this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS…so if it reforms far enough south we can get wrap around and avoid being dry slotted. That looks like congrats for many 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: We always crap on models when they show snowstorms in a bad pattern …like phase 6 lol Why can’t we do the same when they show rainstorms in good patterns? Are you okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 We are about seven days out and still in the game. Have not said that for 2 months. However I agree with the assessment that this first storm looks like a North or NW zone storm. 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That looks like congrats for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 It also still looks like at least one more chance after next weekend’s storm is still on the table as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ji said: We always crap on models when they show snowstorms in a bad pattern …like phase 6 lol Why can’t we do the same when they show rainstorms in good patterns? Shorter Ji: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 We have not seen a sustained period of below normal temps in months and it looks like above normal precip. Will it snow? TBD. WB 12Z EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Nice animated view of the 12z EPS that was posted in the NE thread. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 50 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: How do you come to that conclusion? They look nearly identical at h5 and the surface. The sensible weather outcome on both the 0z and 12z ens runs for this region are essentially the same. Did I just repeat myself? Feels like I just repeated myself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 WOW 18z NAM vs 12z GFS https://ibb.co/0shS616 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Nice animated view of the 12z EPS that was posted in the NE thread. Unfortunately that's definitely a skip over look for the DMV. Further north would be a big storm. Edit : need to get the low to redevelop off of Norfolk or even a little south if that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Nice animated view of the 12z EPS that was posted in the NE thread. The transfer is just way, way too late. It's gotta transfer down in Kentucky area, not almost to Detroit, and it has to be slight farther to the southeast when it transfers. Give me something off Myrtle or at least OBX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: WOW 18z NAM vs 12z GFS https://ibb.co/0shS616 Damn. They arent even close. Maybe the GFS is actually out to lunch as others have suggested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: WOW 18z NAM vs 12z GFS https://ibb.co/0shS616 Looked better to me too…WB 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Chucks been on fire lately. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12km NAM is useless, even when it is in its wheelhouse. It's going to be junked in the near future. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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