yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Still massive spread on the MSLP members map at 180 for 00z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 998 mb SLP just east of DC is the SLP mean for 00z EPS at 192 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 big improvement on the EPS 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 998 mb SLP just east of DC is the SLP mean for 00z EPS at 192 993 over LI at 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Its an increase of an inch into the i95 corridor over 12z run... but still favors i81 corridor into W MD heavily -- EPS total snowfall mean that is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 big improvement on the EPSMan, what a headspinning hobby. Appreciate all of your analysis and insight my friend. You’ve been steadfast with your thoughts on how this all will unfold, and you were certainly right several days ago when you said the solutions would be all over the damn place over the coming days Love to see the flattening of the flow on the EPS, allowing the storm to slide underneath. It’s quite close to being an areawide snowstorm (with mixing / rain in the lowland areas along and east of 95) Next 72 hours will be pretty crucial, no matter which way this turns out. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 This actually is the first euro solution to snow. The closest for this storm was actually last nights(Thursday night run) but that was still all rain. Hopefully it's adjusting based on mjoSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GfsSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GfsSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkGefsSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GefsSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkLooks the same…. Ridiculously different than it’s ENS. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong necessarily but yeesh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 This actually is the first euro solution to snow. The closest for this storm was actually last nights(Thursday night run) but that was still all rain. Hopefully it's adjusting based on mjoSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkWhen is it forecasted to transition into phase 8? Hopefully helps us keep the SER at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 When is it forecasted to transition into phase 8? Hopefully helps us keep the SER at bay. Lol in a few days...by the 9th well established into phase 8 at a very high amplitude Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: When is it forecasted to transition into phase 8? Hopefully helps us keep the SER at bay. It’s hard for me to fathom the op GFS reversing course now that it reversed course. But with the slight delay in the start we are still day 8-9. It’s fun to watch regardless. Model mayhem is entertaining regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Phase 8 in March with amplitude >1Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 It’s hard for me to fathom the op GFS reversing course now that it reversed course. But with the slight delay in the start we are still day 8-9. It’s fun to watch regardless. Model mayhem is entertaining regardless of the outcome. I think heisey said it can take gfs 24 hours to flush a run before it changes. Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 And which model do you think will cave? WB 6Z GFS compared to 0Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 You can see the 6z gfs already made some pretty significant changes wrt not burying energy deep in the base of the trof out in the southwest but rather rotating it NE along the trof and trying to extend/push it east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 The 0z and 6z GEFS have trended towards the op run, with significant NS energy dropping south as the Pac ridge amplifies, digging a trough out west. The HH GEFS yesterday still had a pretty favorable look, with much of that energy captured by the Pacific trough, allowing a wave to eject east. The EPS is better, but we probably need a bit more help with the NAO than is currently modeled. I want to see some wicked confluence to our NE. As things stand now, the lowlands can forget about significant frozen. The interior/western highlands are favored, and the NW burbs are somewhere in between the 2. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 If the GFS idea is more correct, the low tracks well NW into the GLs and becomes occluded. As the trough becomes established in the east there will be additional energy dropping into the trough. Might be a sneaky chance of something for the 14-15th. eta- 6z GEFS is suggesting a bit of a following wave for the 14th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The 0z and 6z GEFS have trended towards the op run, with significant NS energy dropping south as the Pac ridge amplifies, digging a trough out west. The HH GEFS yesterday still had a pretty favorable look, with much of that energy captured by the Pacific trough, allowing a wave to eject east. The EPS is better, but we probably need a bit more help with the NAO than is currently modeled. I want to see some wicked confluence to our NE. As things stand now, the lowlands can forget about significant frozen. The interior/western highlands are favored, and the NW burbs are somewhere in between the 2. Pretty much agree with all of this. Mud (supposed to say mid but this typo was appropriate so leaving it) March takes some rare and near perfect conditions for the lowlands, especially the farther S in lat you go. With that said, the 6z gfs op made some slight improvements but not nearly enough to warrant much enthusiasm. However, the oz geps did trend better and has a stronger CAD signal with a slightly better positioned mean surface low depiction, so that is worth noting. And of course the Euro at 0z. If we were gonna pull off some sort of miracle, today's runs are where it will be. Need pretty significant changes, not sure baby steps will get us to the promised land. Interior elevations and N and W....game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty much agree with all of this. Mud (supposed to say mid but this typo was appropriate so leaving it) March takes some rare and near perfect conditions for the lowlands, especially the farther S in lat you go. With that said, the 6z gfs op made some slight improvements but not nearly enough to warrant much enthusiasm. However, the oz geps did trend better and has a stronger CAD signal with a slightly better positioned mean surface low depiction, so that is worth noting. And of course the Euro at 0z. If we were gonna pull off some sort of miracle, today's runs are where it will be. Need pretty significant changes, not sure baby steps will get us to the promised land. Interior elevations and N and W....game on. Still a week out, and its very unlikely the guidance has this nailed down with all the moving parts. If the general idea holds or degrades over the next couple days, then it is probably time to focus on the week of the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Ji said: Phase 8 in March with amplitude >1 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk where do you get that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: And which model do you think will cave? WB 6Z GFS compared to 0Z Euro We all know which model will cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 where do you get that?https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Still a week out, and its very unlikely the guidance has this nailed down with all the moving parts. If the general idea holds or degrades over the next couple days, then it is probably time to focus on the week of the 13th. Cape how cold do we need it to be from the 15th on over here on the shore for anything of value to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 This was a fairly big shift on the GEPS mean at 0z vs 12z yesterday. Still have lp indicated near the GL but the redevelopment is happening quicker and farther S due to the stronger 50/50 and subsequent confluence: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: Cape how cold do we need it to be from the 15th on over here on the shore for anything of value to fall The general answer is we need anomalous cold given the average high temps are well into the 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: The general answer is we need anomalous cold given the average high temps are well into the 50s. Normal 850 temps are 0 in mid-march for DCA, as opposed to about -4 in Jan. So they need to be below normal to support snow as long as the BL is saturated and/or isothermal 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 06z EPS made another shift towards knocking down the WC ridge due to a more zonal Pacific jet… the incoming S/W is weaker as a result 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 6z control (basically smoothed out version of euro) vs 6z gfs. Huge differences in PAC with that epo ridge and the energy that retrogrades. My theory is that GFS had a run with some poor initialization and it needed a few runs to get it out of its system. Probably see the GFS do a full on cave with that progression by end of the day. Maybe even by 12z we’ll see. Now, eps still doesn’t mean snowstorm for I-95, but at least it gives us a shot vs the GFS insane digging scenario.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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