Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Ji said: the model runs are never consistent until they start showing disasters. We couldnt even get this threat down to 8 days Yo, you are NOT wrong. When was the last time we had a shitter trend to a MECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Game over right here. The energy associated with that vorticity lobe stuck between/underneath the 2 blocks has to dig south, and it phases in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On earlier runs the NS energy rotating down underneath the ridge bridge was largely able to escape west- absorbed by the Pacific trough, while a healthy piece of vorticity ejected eastward. Recent runs have a more amped EPO ridge, forcing most of that energy southward, significantly amplifying the trough and inhibiting a wave from ejecting.Great post. We can’t catch a break can we? It’s really a damn shame.At least models quickly changed today and didn’t tease us within 4-5 days. Time to shift focus to 14-17th honestly, which is the time frame I’ve felt good about all along. We fail there then whatever it’s time for spring . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Game over right here. The energy associated with that vorticity lobe stuck between/underneath the 2 blocks has to dig south, and it phases in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: throw in the towel at 8 days if you want, but don’t come back if things become more favorable. there are going to be many changes The better chance is mid month. Ides of March St Patty's thing bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Wow! Changes galore! And always for the worse! Once it starts in the wrong direction, it tends to continue! I Swear, Lucy and her football keep tricking me and others! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 This run looks similar to 6z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: The better chance is mid month. Ides of March St Patty's thing bro No way man…if this solution plays out it will reshuffle the deck..I just know it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: Great post. We can’t catch a break can we? It’s really a damn shame. At least models quickly changed today and didn’t tease us within 4-5 days. Time to shift focus to 14-17th honestly, which is the time frame I’ve felt good about all along. We fail there then whatever it’s time for spring . Everything is harder with an active NS, and we still are in a Nina. We really fucking need a Mod Nino with sustained NA blocking next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: throw in the towel at 8 days if you want, but don’t come back if things become more favorable. there are going to be many changes How many times have we heard you say this? I appreciate your posts but at some point we gotta recognize that this isn't really even close to an east coast snow storm look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ridging out front is unreal vs 12z. Unbelievable But at least if the 582dm line makes its way to our latitude then that surfer guy you were talking about is still in play for us? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: throw in the towel at 8 days if you want, but don’t come back if things become more favorable. there are going to be many changes This is in no disrespect to your red tag, but there aren’t many Mets who I can say I’ve never seen poo poo on threats or opportunities. Your posts are always pro snow & pattern, and that’s not lining up with any of the ground truth we’ve had. there’s a difference between optimism and realism. The upstream look on the last few suites isnt making any friends here and the observation is that it would be very difficult to score with that look. There’s no sugar coating it was ugly. Are we giving up, no…but it’s about to be 4th down and long. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 phases....establish blocking, knock down ser, followup wave. Delayed but not denied. I'm pissed the first threat isn't going to work but hang in there. Remember 0z gfs that bypassed first threat what it did with the 3 phases I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: No way man…if this solution plays out it will reshuffle the deck..I just know it Someone rang 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Maybe if it keeps shifting west over the next 20 runs it’ll end back on the east coast? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Game over right here. The energy associated with that vorticity lobe stuck between/underneath the 2 blocks has to dig south, and it phases in. A chapter from the PSU 101 " How not to get snow when the pattern looked promising" Cliff notes available on Amazon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: This is in no disrespect to your red tag, but there aren’t many Mets who I can say I’ve never seen poo poo on threats or opportunities. Your posts are always pro snow & pattern, and that’s not lining up with any of the ground truth we’ve had. there’s a difference between optimism and realism. The upstream look on the last few suites isnt making any friends here and the observation is that it would be very difficult to score with that look. There’s no sugar coating it was ugly. Are we giving up, no…but it’s about to be 4th down and long. dude, i have poo poo’d half the damn winter. I’m also not going to completely shift my thinking in 12 hours from what i’ve been thinking over the last 5 days. if we’re still here on Sunday, yeah, but there’s value in sticking to things a bit and not being so reactionary 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Maybe this will morph into something entirely new There's time at least lol. Could happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: throw in the towel at 8 days if you want, but don’t come back if things become more favorable. there are going to be many changes just for one storm i’d love to see this implemented. discussion would improve. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ji said: the model runs are never consistent until they start showing disasters. We couldnt even get this threat down to 8 days But that is two days better than it has been. At that rate it might snow in 2026. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Maybe if it keeps shifting west over the next 20 runs it’ll end back on the east coast? Like the old tecmo bowl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 This is a reflection of a SER. Please don't gaslight ppl into believing it is not: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: dude, i have poo poo’d half the damn winter. I’m also not going to completely shift my thinking in 12 hours from what i’ve been thinking over the last 5 days. if we’re still here on Sunday, yeah, but there’s value in sticking to things a bit and not being so reactionary You can think what you want and I respect your opinions/input. But eventually It looks weenie-ish. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: There's time at least lol. Could happen. Someone said it but it looks exactly like 6z yesterday. Wow. Yes maybe. I don’t know what throwing in the towel looks like anyway. I mean we will all still be here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is a reflection of a SER. Please don't gaslight ppl into believing it is not: It absolutely has a look of SER influence at the least. You may not see the same heights of a full blown ridge, but the impact and anomalies give that resemblance in ground truth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 0z will be a game changer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You can think what you want and I respect your opinions/input. But eventually It looks weenie-ish. telling people not to completely abandon multiple days’ worth of thinking because of like 3 OP runs is weenie-ish? ok dude. sometimes you have to stick to your guns a bit and let the cards fall further. that’s how forecasting works 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: dude, i have poo poo’d half the damn winter. I’m also not going to completely shift my thinking in 12 hours from what i’ve been thinking over the last 5 days. if we’re still here on Sunday, yeah, but there’s value in sticking to things a bit and not being so reactionary Nothing is etched in stone. My observations are specific to this run/recent runs. In general though, everyone has seen this movie play out over and over this winter and it always ends the same. Thus the pessimism. Pattern is somewhat more favorable, and given all the chaos, there is no reason to think the timing and degree of interaction between the key waves is nailed down by guidance 7 days out. Plenty of time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is a reflection of a SER. Please don't gaslight ppl into believing it is not: Practically from equator to the north pole. We are cursed. Absolutely cursed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 System gets so intense it tries to obliterate the block and reconfigure the entire longwave pattern over N America. Oh joy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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