stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:49 PM, Ji said: please stop doing play by play Expand please DIAF ETA: You know what, cool. I will. Not because of the fact that you're stupid, but I don't know if anybody is getting anything from it anyway. So, as you wish. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The 50/50 eventually loses and we get 850's screaming in due south. Beast of a storm though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:49 PM, brooklynwx99 said: OP runs are basically ensemble members at this range. chill out Expand Just let the weenies be weenies. You'll frustrate yourself trying to calm them down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:47 PM, dallen7908 said: Expand Because of the -NAO tendency, I might expect this to trend south. It's not too late here.. can't be any later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 This is why I said last night that I’m pissed cmc showed a massive dead hit blizzard. Any OP run that shows otherwise will have people freaking out. Wait. For. The. Ensembles. Fuckers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 if you guys want to track a storm from 10-15 days out, this comes with the territory. not sure what else to tell you. storms don’t stay in the bullseye on every OP run for 20-40 runs straight 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:49 PM, brooklynwx99 said: OP runs are basically ensemble members at this range. chill out Expand Like you predicted, everyone is loosing their heads over a OP run at range. Very interested to see the EPS. If it is similar to the GFS/GEPS disagreement, I feel we are still in good shape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:51 PM, clskinsfan said: The 50/50 eventually loses and we get 850's screaming in due south. Beast of a storm though. Expand March 93 for the Plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Ops seem to want to slow the vorts down and amp them, while many ensemble members kick them out faster and less amped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:50 PM, mattie g said: No they don't. #yousuck Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:43 PM, WxUSAF said: Yes. We can’t have a monster trough neutrally tilted in the Rockies. Even all this blocking probably just gives us maybe a chance at brief front end frozen with that look. It’s got to be a weaker shortwave so it can slide under the block and amplify on the coast. Like the GEFS and GGEM. Expand If I want one model to have to be “over amped” it is the euro. Just sayin. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 In the end, the Euro has us firing up the severe thread. F5s on The Mall? 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:54 PM, Terpeast said: Ops seem to want to slow the vorts down and amp them, while many ensemble members kick them out faster and less amped. Expand I'm not saying the ops are right, still should follow the ens for now. But what has been the tendency out West all season? That's all I'm gonna say on the matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:54 PM, Terpeast said: Ops seem to want to slow the vorts down and amp them, while many ensemble members kick them out faster and less amped. Expand Yes, sometimes an ensemble of 4 operational models is as valuable as a 30 or 50 member ensemble of just one operational - non-dispersion for the loss 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:56 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not saying the ops are right, still should follow the ens for now. But what has been the tendency out West all season? That's all I'm gonna say on the matter. Expand Could be that the models are underestimating the block and or overinitializing current conditions with the old pattern still in place. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:50 PM, stormtracker said: please DIAF ETA: You know what, cool. I will. Not because of the fact that you're stupid, but I don't know if anybody is getting anything from it anyway. So, as you wish. Expand for the love of God, don't listen to him. smoke a bowl, and we'll see you at 18z 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:58 PM, alexderiemer said: for the love of God, don't listen to him. smoke a bowl, and we'll see you at 18z Expand Now you're talking. Nah, he put me on tilt. He thinks being an asshole is edgy. But as an aside, this new flower I got.....<chef's kiss>. If I don't have snow, I'll always have the devil's lettuce. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:58 PM, alexderiemer said: for the love of God, don't listen to him. smoke a bowl, and we'll see you at 18z Expand eat an edible for every meltdown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 7:01 PM, Lowershoresadness said: eat an edible for every meltdown Expand You're trying to kill me or put me in a coma 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:52 PM, brooklynwx99 said: if you guys want to track a storm from 10-15 days out, this comes with the territory. not sure what else to tell you. storms don’t stay in the bullseye on every OP run for 20-40 runs straightThank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps. There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP. IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable. Breathe y’all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 7:00 PM, stormtracker said: Now you're talking. Nah, he put me on tilt. He thinks being an asshole is edgy. But as an aside, this new flower I got.....<chef's kiss>. If I don't have snow, I'll always have the devil's lettuce. Expand Name? Asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 7:02 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Name? Asking for a friend Expand I Gotta ask my boy. I just tell him how I want to feel and he matches up the strain. He's a weedologist. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 7:01 PM, jayyy said: Thank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps. There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP. IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable. Breathe y’all. Expand I think after a season of futility and coastals trending to cutters at this range, the debbing can be expected. We do have some different players up top so we wait and see if this will be any different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:50 PM, stormtracker said: please DIAF ETA: You know what, cool. I will. Not because of the fact that you're stupid, but I don't know if anybody is getting anything from it anyway. So, as you wish. Expand please keep doing PBPs, ur analysis is great 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 7:03 PM, stormtracker said: I Gotta ask my boy. I just tell him how I want to feel and he matches up the strain. He's a weedologist. Expand Ice Cream Cake will get you through the roughest of model runs. Might fall asleep by hour 240 but you get the idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 7:01 PM, jayyy said: Thank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps. There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP. IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable. Breathe y’all. Expand Agreed. I'm just giving the info not saying I agree with it or jumping with it. I think we have to wait until probably Sunday to get a feel of where this is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 6:53 PM, alexderiemer said: Like you predicted, everyone is loosing their heads over a OP run at range. Very interested to see the EPS. If it is similar to the GFS/GEPS disagreement, I feel we are still in good shape. Expand It depends how you define "good shape"...If I have elevation and live in NW MD or South Central PA, I'm optimistic and following closely...You live in Lewes DE according to your tag...good luck getting snow even if its a solid coastal track. Its going to be really difficult for the low lands to pull something off snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 7:04 PM, AtlanticWx said: please keep doing PBPs, ur analysis is great Expand Flattery gets you....everywhere. I grant you ban immunity for a month. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 3/3/2023 at 7:03 PM, stormtracker said: I Gotta ask my boy. I just tell him how I want to feel and he matches up the strain. He's a weedologist. Expand I want to troll you so bad with this post but it’s kinda mean. So I won’t because I LOVE your model pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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