clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: even after allllll that, the GFS still redevelops. we literally get a coastal from this. that’s why this pattern is so good. you can still get a somewhat favorable end result from garbage Verbatim we would get jumped here. Weve all seen it too many times. You might still get saved up there. But that evolution has screw job written all over it for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 ICON moves the initial western energy right on east, doesn't dig into the SW fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 My take away is obv a storm looks likely near the coast....but its going to be difficult for the low lands to get in on the goods...If I were a higher elevation folk, I'd be optimistic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 With that run of the GFS, there would only be 48 states left on the map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Verbatim we would get jumped here. Weve all seen it too many times. You might still get saved up there. But that evolution has screw job written all over it for us. my point was that even with a solution that would normally be an absolute catastrophe, it still manages to almost pull it off. that’s the sign of a really good pattern 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 also the GEFS is disagreeing with the strength of the main S/W by a ton at like 5 days lmao. I think the GFS just got it wrong. its ENS doesn’t even agree with it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cmc is March 58 redux Not here, lol BWI got like 10 inches from that one didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GEFS looks better than 06z. kicking the S/W east faster, blocking is stronger 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Maybe noise, but gefs trended slightly east with the vort at 120 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Pretty unreal national snow accum map. 70+ inches in the midwest. 50+ in the NE. Crazy storm 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 and as a result stronger 50/50 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 CMC is a let down in the snow department, but of course it's not going to nail down a 50 mile correction either way at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not here, lol BWI got like 10 inches from that one didn't it? You're right, I'm looking more up this way in the burbs. Sorry for the cross sub post confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Gefs clearly east with the s/w kick at 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS looks better than 06z. kicking the S/W east faster, blocking is stronger 50/50 stronger too. I do notice the block is incrementally ticking West each run, would that be a concern at all in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC is a let down in the snow department, but of course it's not going to nail down a 50 mile correction either way at this point Yeah, that was just one of the many possibilities on the table. Something that could not be said all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not here, lol BWI got like 10 inches from that one didn't it? Officially, they got 4.7" on the 19th, 3.5" on the 20th, and 0.2" on the 21st. Didn't even meet winter storm warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 50/50 stronger too. I do notice the block is incrementally ticking West each run, would that be a concern at all in your opinion? no that's good - we want a more west based block 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Similar to 0z gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GEFS looks amazing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty unreal national snow accum map. 70+ inches in the midwest. 50+ in the NE. Crazy storm And here we still sit...in America's snow taint. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Yeah GEFS not even remotely close to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS looks amazing Wow. Well that is certainly a refreshing look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I'd imagine our GEFS snow mean will be much improved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Let’s hope the ens are more correct and the op is wrong 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wow. Well that is certainly a refreshing look. If the ops GFS could still nearly pull it off with that extreme trough and solution, imagine what an even somewhat less digging trough would do? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: Let’s hope the ens are more correct and the op is wrong I mean you're the expert, but I would feel that at this long a lead time, that having the OP disagree with it's own ENS would lend a little more credence to the ENS, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 i already know this run is gonna go crazy. textbook look 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty unreal national snow accum map. 70+ inches in the midwest. 50+ in the NE. Crazy storm ...and nearly ZERO here. Welcome to WinTurd 2022-2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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