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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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  On 3/3/2023 at 12:07 PM, frd said:

Some posters up North are fearful of surpression despite the modeling and recent history of far NW tracks.    

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As I mentioned in my earlier post, that area of low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes is a dominant feature, and the exact strength and position of that as the wave approaches will have an influence. A more suppressed track is possible.

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  On 3/3/2023 at 11:40 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

100% respect to you, but can we ĝet a  discrete threat under 120 hours before you start talking about how we might fail? Cmon man.

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He’s not wrong.  GFS solution is white rain.  No high pressure, not cold enough.  If that plays out it’ll be 37 in DC.  Far NW is where you wanna be in mid March unless we get some truly anomalous cold. 

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  On 3/3/2023 at 12:12 PM, CAPE said:

As I mentioned in my earlier post, that area of low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes is a dominant feature, and the exact strength and position of that as the wave approaches will have an influence. A more suppressed track is possible.

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I speak for 95% of us here. We are a strange breed. When models show near misses (never understood that oxymoron btw) we try and will the storm to us pointing out little nuances in the flow that would make it work. Subsequently, when models are showing direct hits we look for anything possible on how and why it will fail. We all must be joys at parties.

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  On 3/3/2023 at 12:39 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

He’s not wrong.  GFS solution is white rain.  No high pressure, not cold enough.  If that plays out it’ll be 37 in DC.  Far NW is where you wanna be in mid March unless we get some truly anomalous cold. 

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Wednesday we had the cut concern. Yesterday we had the jump concern. Today we have the temp concern. Who knows what the concern will be tomorrow, but why worry cause Brooklyn in da house!

 

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  On 3/3/2023 at 1:26 PM, Grothar of Herndon said:

Wednesday we had the cut concern. Yesterday we had the jump concern. Today we have the temp concern. Who knows what the concern will be tomorrow, but why worry cause Brooklyn in da house!

 

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we've been talking about it so long it feels like its way  closer than day 9....of course its not really day 9 before we know how things are shaping up...we will probably be all in or all out by early next week...those are some deep purples showing up at h5...so dark you can hardly see the contour lines.  looks ominous

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