87storms Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: here we go. the GEFS has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run with anything even close to this kind of coastal signal straight up cave. I'm becoming more and more confident that the EPS has the right idea with the overall evolution Switching the trough/ridge between the EC and WC will definitely make things more trackable, though verbatim it kinda does look Miller B'ish or at least the trough looks a bit too far east. Regardless, it's a colder pattern...which is sort of an important ingredient for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Not the worst look I've seen on a surface map for a period of interest. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: But this is fitting for us. i referenced boxing day 2010 to CAPE for a reason (altho that would be bad for him too where he had the save he mentioned in that one that most of us didn't get) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 But you compared 2 Euro runs a day apart that DO show the energy ejected more quickly east. I am confused now lolTombo over on our Philly forum summed it pretty nicely. 150% better than I could. Hope he doesn’t mind me posting his quote. I’d be interested in seeing the H5 progression of the 18z GEFS members that develop a mid Atlantic storm for around 11th and how they got there. My whole point about the EPS was not having a good cold source because of the ride position. “I mean you have a ton of high latitude blocking that is forcing big time cold for this time of the year south. Few things that I think need to be corrected before you can start honking for a snow event. For starters, ridge position out west is right on the coast, which argues more for going west. We do have a strong block in place, but there is no high pressure pinned under that to really entrench the cold air, so need see lower hgts offset ridging. I would like to see more lower hgts trapped underneath the block to offset the ridging that swings in place. Heisy mentioned this and I agree, the eps that far out are broad brushing the below normal hgts to much, just think of it as if there is more agreement on a low pressure those blues will be concentrated more so and you would see more ridging out ahead of that low. That ridging placement is sw flow and bringing in the warmer temps. That is where you need stronger lower hgts trapped under the block, to really offset the ridging that is out ahead of this storm due to how deep it is and wanting to go west. Its kind of the same theme all year long. These storms that enter into the baja just have so much time to amplify and go ham west of our longitude. Thats why a nice PNa ridge is sweet because they go down the front side of the ridge and amplify in the south and tap gulf moisture and come north. Not enter baja cali and amplify in the plains which is what you are seeing here. The airmass will be plenty fine if we can get lower hgts to combat the ridging out ahead of this. The main checklist is, you need a cold source, end of story. Whether it be a high anchored in prior or one coming into the system that it can tap. Right now it doesn't have the high but if we get lower hgts that will supply the cold. “. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 53 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: i referenced boxing day 2010 to CAPE for a reason (altho that would be bad for him too where he had the save he mentioned in that one that most of us didn't get) the snow hole can get bent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not the worst look I've seen on a surface map for a period of interest. Looks like we get jumped to me. But what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Don’t know about you, but that doesn’t scream cutter to me. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Don’t know about you, but that doesn’t scream cutter to me. We don't need a cutter to get screwed. We have lots of other tricks up our sleeve. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Don’t know about you, but that doesn’t scream cutter to me. Jumper now… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 We're really digging deep for some snow. It ain't gonna happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 hours ago, Ji said: I need to see blue--over my backyard. Not 500mb blue....not 2temp anomoly blue...not 850 anomoly blue---i need to see mutha fookin snow blue on the model map...over my yard. preferably when the "hour" number on the map is in double digits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: We're really digging deep for some snow. It ain't gonna happen. Like Mappy said, go away, please, if you think it is shit the blinds. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Like Mappy said, go away, please, if you think it is shit the blinds. That’s right, it’s still winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 53 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Like Mappy said, go away, please, if you think it is shit the blinds. Exactly-Haven’t really had any hope for any type of winter weather for a while and seems like a true pattern change is coming. So I came on here to read bc I thought there would be some good analysis. I was not disappointed. But “feely” statements like “it ain’t gonna happen”, is just a waste of a post and is only based on past disappointments not any kind of current medium range climatology. Like a person who is jaded about the entire “dating scene” in general, because THAT PERSON can’t get a date. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 hours ago, mattie g said: Their stouts are so GD sweet though! I like snow. The stouts are way over the top for me, but damn they tasted good after a few triple IPA’s. How’s are 93 redux storm looking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Bad sign? No posts about 18z eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Bad sign? No posts about 18z eps? it’s pretty much the same. not really worth posting about 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too And others of us without your skills really enjoy reading your thoughts. Thanks for all you've shared in this and the previous threads. I've learned a lot. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too i appreciate the time you spend trying to educate us even if i don't post in this thread a lot. I can read a wx model--your posts teach me how to do more than that. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Looks like a possible Norlun Trough setting up in the 8-10 day period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too I'm personally very grateful for your analysis in this subforum. You have the patience of a saint to deal with us perpetually snow starved weenies. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 25 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: i appreciate the time you spend trying to educate us even if i don't post in this thread a lot. I can read a wx model--your posts teach me how to do more than that. thank you! posters from way back when helped me do the same when I was a kid so i try and help others gain the same insights that I did! they’re fascinating. and trust me, I learn every day both at my job and even here 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I can't believe the low is cutting into Canada with a near +600dm -NAO. What a good setup for a HECS v. The Pacific is already favorable here. I'd worry about last second warming with the coastal if it happens after the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I can't believe the low is cutting into Canada with a near +600dm -NAO. What a good setup for a HECS v. The Pacific is already favorable here. I'd worry about last second warming with the coastal if it happens after the 11th. On march 6? That’s to be expected, imo. That cutter should absorb into and reinforce the 50/50, while the w trough begins to kick east on the 10th. Gfs moved towards the euro/cmc today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: On march 6? That’s to be expected, imo. That cutter should absorb into and reinforce the 50/50, while the w trough begins to kick east on the 10th. Gfs moved towards the euro/cmc today Yeah, the SE ridge is strong in spite of the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too Yes sir! I've learned a ton from you this winter. Very detailed and educational on my level which isn't much. But thank you for taking the time to post as well even from the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: thank you! posters from way back when helped me do the same when I was a kid so i try and help others gain the same insights that I did! they’re fascinating. and trust me, I learn every day both at my job and even here By Admin Decree Whereas, Brooklynwx99 , a conniving small time hustler, came into our forum as a mere interloper Whereas he has shown himself to be a teacher, a motivator, and a part time Gigolo Whereas he better get this storm shit together or there will be pitchforks and torches in Bayridge Brooklyn and/or Morristown, NJ He is hearby declared an honorary Mid Atlantic Met and is therefore granted full Mid Atlantic citizenship. -Decreed by That black Admin on this 2nd day of March, two thousand and twenty three. 3 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Let's hope the GFS gets it in gear tonight guys. For our and brooklynwx's sake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 haha i am living in Morristown 95% of the time tho. grew up in Brooklyn and moved out to the burbs for work anyway, hopefully we keep the momentum going. the whole MA needs it (yes, including NYC haha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now