Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: At least down here in Lanco we are consistent - after being left high and dry all winter, the theme continues into spring: I am very much hoping we all get rain tonight or tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I am very much hoping we all get rain tomorrow. Same - especially with this waiting in the wing: (good meteorology lesson here from MU) (1/3) Forecasting 101: How to use the MJO to beat computer models. 4-5 days ago, the models were suggesting an abrupt shift to an unseasonably cold pattern in the East from April 8-18. Some even showed a major, late-season snowstorm in PA on April 9/10! (2/3) At the same time, they were forecasting the MJO to become active in phases 6/7.. and still are. In an ENSO-neutral April, MJO phases 6/7 favor a #JETSTREAM ridge in the East, & the correlation is strong. Thus, I didn’t bite on the cold & snow, & it’s a good thing I didn’t.. (3/3) Fast forward to today, and the models have caught on to the MJO’s influence on the pattern and now show a sprawling ridge in the East next week. So, after a cooldown #EasterWeekend, expect this week’s unseasonable warmth to come roaring back by the middle of next week! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Same - especially with this waiting in the wing: (good meteorology lesson here from MU) (1/3) Forecasting 101: How to use the MJO to beat computer models. 4-5 days ago, the models were suggesting an abrupt shift to an unseasonably cold pattern in the East from April 8-18. Some even showed a major, late-season snowstorm in PA on April 9/10! (2/3) At the same time, they were forecasting the MJO to become active in phases 6/7.. and still are. In an ENSO-neutral April, MJO phases 6/7 favor a #JETSTREAM ridge in the East, & the correlation is strong. Thus, I didn’t bite on the cold & snow, & it’s a good thing I didn’t.. (3/3) Fast forward to today, and the models have caught on to the MJO’s influence on the pattern and now show a sprawling ridge in the East next week. So, after a cooldown #EasterWeekend, expect this week’s unseasonable warmth to come roaring back by the middle of next week! The 3K has some fairly severe looking cells later today. My problem with the above...both forecasts are models, who is to say the MJO forecast was better than the ground truth? This past winter the MJO forecasts moved drastically day to day especially late in the season. If the MJO was fact then yea, this would be a more valid point but, IN MY OPINION, picking one or the other to believe has a component of guessing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The 3K has some fairly severe looking cells later today. My problem with the above...both forecasts are models, who is to say the MJO forecast was better than the ground truth? This past winter the MJO forecasts moved drastically day to day especially late in the season. If the MJO was fact then yea, this would be a more valid point but, IN MY OPINION, picking one or the other to believe has a component of guessing. Can't argue that at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 CXY had a high temp 5+ degrees above any other ASOS/AWOS site in the state yesterday -- got to love it haha. So, I'm starting to think we can make a run at 2017 for hottest April ever. I'm not ready to go there quite yet but an official MJS prediction could be in the offing. Echoing other's sentiments in that I really hope we see some rain tonight/tomorrow because after that, sheesh, high and dry is the name of the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: CXY had a high temp 5+ degrees above any other ASOS/AWOS site in the state yesterday -- got to love it haha. So, I'm starting to think we can make a run at 2017 for hottest April ever. I'm not ready to go there quite yet but an official MJS prediction could be in the offing. Echoing other's sentiments in that I really hope we see some rain tonight/tomorrow because after that, sheesh, high and dry is the name of the game. Was thinking about this yesterday. It only takes about a +6 departure to set an all time hottest April, right? I’m about ready to lock that one in with what’s coming later next week, unless we get an actual below normal stretch later in the month. Only fly in the ointment here is that in these dry stretches, overnight lows might cool off pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 My place from the Saturday storm That's insane. It's crazy how a lot of places around here just got power restored yesterday. I had only lost power for about five hours and had zero damage over in Bigler where just a few miles away, it looked like a low-level bomb went off. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 48 minutes ago, TimB said: Was thinking about this yesterday. It only takes about a +6 departure to set an all time hottest April, right? I’m about ready to lock that one in with what’s coming later next week, unless we get an actual below normal stretch later in the month. Only fly in the ointment here is that in these dry stretches, overnight lows might cool off pretty well. Correct, 6.5 degrees AN would tie the 2017 record. We are currently running 5.5 AN with some warm days on tap but then some normal to below normal-ish type days before the warmup. I'm banking on that SER really setting up shop for a prolonged period, but we shall see. I had the same thought about the clear skies creating some cool nights to mitigate things. But if I were a betting man, I think right now I'd throw some shekels on the over, dangerous as that may be this early in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Correct, 6.5 degrees AN would tie the 2017 record. We are currently running 5.5 AN with some warm days on tap but then some normal to below normal-ish type days before the warmup. I'm banking on that SER really setting up shop for a prolonged period, but we shall see. I had the same thought about the clear skies creating some cool nights to mitigate things. But if I were a betting man, I think right now I'd throw some shekels on the over, dangerous as that may be this early in the game. It will indeed take almost the whole month being quite warmish to get the over IMO re: no 2-3 day periods where the highs are the 50's and lows in the 30's especially later month where average highs are near 70. Hope you are wrong, and you lose some shekels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I really hope that line is more solid than depicted. Going to be have's and have not's tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I really hope that line is more solid than depicted. Going to be have's and have not's tomorrow. That is for this evening, but the line tomorrow does not look much different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is for this evening, but the line tomorrow does not look much different. I'm sorry. I did not even look at the time stamp. My bad. Hopefully if the line look similar tomorrow the gaps in coverage are in different locations within the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm sorry. I did not even look at the time stamp. My bad. Hopefully if the line look similar tomorrow the gaps in coverage are in different locations within the line. Just as much my fault for not mentioning. I actually thought for this evening it looked more decent that I was thinking we would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Just as much my fault for not mentioning. I actually thought for this evening it looked more decent that I was thinking we would have. It would be really nice to get rain tonight and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It would be really nice to get rain tonight and tomorrow. It would be great, but the Nam is not inspired so hard to plan for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 RRFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: RRFS The new King has spoken. All hail the RRFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The new King has spoken. All hail the RRFS! You are going to use the Fv3 and the RRFS and like it! Signed-US Weather conglomerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Had a nice thunderstorm this morning wake me I up as the cold front came through. It’s dropped 14 degrees in about 45 minutes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Austin, Texas, says hi from the #1 rated BBQ joint as rated by Texas Monthly. Breakfast tacos ftw 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Backdoor cold front has moved back NE and out of Lanco (at least the western areas) and my temp has skyrocketed from 58 to 77 in just over 90 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 26 minutes ago, canderson said: Austin, Texas, says hi from the #1 rated BBQ joint as rated by Texas Monthly. Breakfast tacos ftw that'll give you gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, sauss06 said: that'll give you gas There is a TMI in MDT and some TMI in Texas as well now! LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, sauss06 said: that'll give you gas Maybe, but that food looks awfully damn good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 I had no Idea storm chaser Joel Taylor died of an overdose in 2018. I always suspected Reed timmers and crew where on cocaine or stimulants of some kind in the early years. Reed was always tweeked as shit you could see it in his eyes, hear it in his voice an he was always sweating at his temples. Taylor, 38, had a fatal mix of drugs in his system, according to a toxicology report by the Institute of Forensic Sciences of Puerto Rico in January which was obtained on Friday.MDMA (also known as ecstasy) along with Zolpidem (a version of Ambien), ketamine (an anesthetic) and MDA (a psychedelic amphetamine) were found in his system at the time of his death, according to the report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Temp is up to 81 and still rising rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Temp is up to 81 and still rising rapidly. Banging an 84 here. It is hotter than a Texas Port-a-Potty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Banging an 84 here. It is hotter than a Texas Port-a-Potty. I was stuck at 58 as recently as 11:30am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was stuck at 58 as recently as 11:30am. Today is 10+ degrees higher than any other day on the entire GFS run...many days are 30-40 degrees cooler. This assumes the cold front gets here "on time" tomorrow> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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