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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023

paweather
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Blizzard of 93
Blizzard of 93

I am currently in the Poconos thanks to a work conference that Mrs. Blizz is attending. I am out on the balcony at 11 pm watching it absolutely rip heavy snow!!! I finally am experiencing so

pawatch
pawatch

5” of snow here. Snow is sticking to everything.

Voyager
Voyager

Pic my niece took this morning (3/2/23) from her front porch. This winter's been unbelievable up in Flagstaff.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2023 at 12:46 PM, Bubbler86 said:

I am very much hoping we all get rain tomorrow. 

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Same - especially with this waiting in the wing: (good meteorology lesson here from MU)

 

(1/3) Forecasting 101: How to use the MJO to beat computer models. 4-5 days ago, the models were suggesting an abrupt shift to an unseasonably cold pattern in the East from April 8-18. Some even showed a major, late-season snowstorm in PA on April 9/10!

 

(2/3) At the same time, they were forecasting the MJO to become active in phases 6/7.. and still are. In an ENSO-neutral April, MJO phases 6/7 favor a #JETSTREAM ridge in the East, & the correlation is strong. Thus, I didn’t bite on the cold & snow, & it’s a good thing I didn’t..

 

(3/3) Fast forward to today, and the models have caught on to the MJO’s influence on the pattern and now show a sprawling ridge in the East next week. So, after a cooldown #EasterWeekend, expect this week’s unseasonable warmth to come roaring back by the middle of next week!

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2023 at 12:49 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Same - especially with this waiting in the wing: (good meteorology lesson here from MU)

 

(1/3) Forecasting 101: How to use the MJO to beat computer models. 4-5 days ago, the models were suggesting an abrupt shift to an unseasonably cold pattern in the East from April 8-18. Some even showed a major, late-season snowstorm in PA on April 9/10!

 

(2/3) At the same time, they were forecasting the MJO to become active in phases 6/7.. and still are. In an ENSO-neutral April, MJO phases 6/7 favor a #JETSTREAM ridge in the East, & the correlation is strong. Thus, I didn’t bite on the cold & snow, & it’s a good thing I didn’t..

 

(3/3) Fast forward to today, and the models have caught on to the MJO’s influence on the pattern and now show a sprawling ridge in the East next week. So, after a cooldown #EasterWeekend, expect this week’s unseasonable warmth to come roaring back by the middle of next week!

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The 3K has some fairly severe looking cells later today.  My problem with the above...both forecasts are models, who is to say the MJO forecast was better than the ground truth?  This past winter the MJO forecasts moved drastically day to day especially late in the season.  If the MJO was fact then yea, this would be a more valid point but, IN MY OPINION, picking one or the other to believe has a component of guessing. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2023 at 12:54 PM, Bubbler86 said:

The 3K has some fairly severe looking cells later today.  My problem with the above...both forecasts are models, who is to say the MJO forecast was better than the ground truth?  This past winter the MJO forecasts moved drastically day to day especially late in the season.  If the MJO was fact then yea, this would be a more valid point but, IN MY OPINION, picking one or the other to believe has a component of guessing. 

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Can't argue that at all. 

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted

CXY had a high temp 5+ degrees above any other ASOS/AWOS site in the state yesterday -- got to love it haha.

So, I'm starting to think we can make a run at 2017 for hottest April ever.  I'm not ready to go there quite yet but an official MJS prediction could be in the offing.  

Echoing other's sentiments in that I really hope we see some rain tonight/tomorrow because after that, sheesh, high and dry is the name of the game.

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TimB

TimB

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2023 at 1:26 PM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

CXY had a high temp 5+ degrees above any other ASOS/AWOS site in the state yesterday -- got to love it haha.

So, I'm starting to think we can make a run at 2017 for hottest April ever.  I'm not ready to go there quite yet but an official MJS prediction could be in the offing.  

Echoing other's sentiments in that I really hope we see some rain tonight/tomorrow because after that, sheesh, high and dry is the name of the game.

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Was thinking about this yesterday. It only takes about a +6 departure to set an all time hottest April, right? I’m about ready to lock that one in with what’s coming later next week, unless we get an actual below normal stretch later in the month.

Only fly in the ointment here is that in these dry stretches, overnight lows might cool off pretty well.

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2023 at 10:25 AM, 2001kx said:
My place from the Saturday storm :thumbsdown:
 
 
IMG_20230403_165449.thumb.jpg.9ad197db6c294467a3c45241867ec2c5.jpg
That's insane. It's crazy how a lot of places around here just got power restored yesterday. I had only lost power for about five hours and had zero damage over in Bigler where just a few miles away, it looked like a low-level bomb went off.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2023 at 1:36 PM, TimB said:

Was thinking about this yesterday. It only takes about a +6 departure to set an all time hottest April, right? I’m about ready to lock that one in with what’s coming later next week, unless we get an actual below normal stretch later in the month.

Only fly in the ointment here is that in these dry stretches, overnight lows might cool off pretty well.

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Correct, 6.5 degrees AN would tie the 2017 record.  We are currently running 5.5 AN with some warm days on tap but then some normal to below normal-ish type days before the warmup.  I'm banking on that SER really setting up shop for a prolonged period, but we shall see.  I had the same thought about the clear skies creating some cool nights to mitigate things.  But if I were a betting man, I think right now I'd throw some shekels on the over, dangerous as that may be this early in the game.  

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2023 at 2:34 PM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Correct, 6.5 degrees AN would tie the 2017 record.  We are currently running 5.5 AN with some warm days on tap but then some normal to below normal-ish type days before the warmup.  I'm banking on that SER really setting up shop for a prolonged period, but we shall see.  I had the same thought about the clear skies creating some cool nights to mitigate things.  But if I were a betting man, I think right now I'd throw some shekels on the over, dangerous as that may be this early in the game.  

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It will indeed take almost the whole month being quite warmish to get the over IMO re: no 2-3 day periods where the highs are the 50's and lows in the 30's especially later month where average highs are near 70.  Hope you are wrong, and you lose some shekels.   

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2023 at 3:04 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I'm sorry. I did not even look at the time stamp. My bad. 

 

Hopefully if the line look similar tomorrow the gaps in coverage are in different locations within the line. 

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Just as much my fault for not mentioning.  I actually thought for this evening it looked more decent that I was thinking we would have.

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Yardstickgozinya

Yardstickgozinya

Posted
Posted

I had no Idea storm chaser Joel Taylor died of an overdose in 2018. I always suspected Reed timmers and crew where on cocaine or stimulants of some kind in the early years. Reed was always tweeked as shit you could see it in his eyes, hear it in his voice an he was always sweating at his temples.

Taylor, 38, had a fatal mix of drugs in his system, according to a toxicology report by the Institute of Forensic Sciences of Puerto Rico in January which was obtained on Friday.MDMA (also known as ecstasy) along with Zolpidem (a version of Ambien), ketamine (an anesthetic) and MDA (a psychedelic amphetamine) were found in his system at the time of his death, according to the report

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