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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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After the strong frontal passage last night much chillier today with highs remaining in the 40's for most of the county. Frost advisory is in effect for tonight with a low near freezing. Warmer weather for most of this week through Thursday....cooler to close out the week into next weekend.
Records for today: High 86 (1967) / Low 17 (1923) / Rain 1.26" (1977). Today is the first day since November 9th that there has been no recorded snow on this date in county history since 1888.
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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Agreed, got a lot of work done.  Started menacingly at the grass but no rain means no mow.  LOL.  Lots of mulch down.   If we have a mulch topper snow in April, it will be fresh mulch. 

I empathize-my grass is growing fast. Yards and fields around here are about as lush and green as could possibly be.

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I empathize-my grass is growing fast. Yards and fields around here are about as lush and green as could possibly be.

And you are the one in the D0 right now.  I suspect the DO (and possibly D1) expand this Thursday.   Sun was baking the yard today despite the 40's temps.   I almost assuredly will have to mow by next weekend. 

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3 P's tonight.  Potted Plants and Pets.  Rgem has lots of upper 20's for the LSV.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1100 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023

PAZ036-057-059-063>066-031300-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FR.Y.0001.230403T0400Z-230403T1300Z/
Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
1100 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation
  late tonight and early Monday. A few pockets of slightly sub-
  freezing temperatures are possible around daybreak in the
  normally colder rural valleys.

* WHERE...Franklin, Dauphin, Lebanon, Cumberland, Adams, York
  and Lancaster Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Near-ground freezing temperatures could kill
  uncovered sensitive outdoor vegetation.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The frost will occur mainly in valley
  locations with a light southeast breeze possibly preventing
  frost formation on the ridges. .

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants and vegetation from the
cold. Potted plants should be brought inside.

The latest forecast information can be found on the
NWS State College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege,
or on the web at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

 

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The spc highlights are almost a carbon copy if the 31 as far a location. According to the spc the quality of moisture return is still questionable, and possible convection and cloud cover from the subtropical pacific could limit destabilization out ahead of the system. I think there is more bust potential with this system than the last atp. However I'm not calling a bust, just pointing out the potential, It could go either way atp.
Apr 3, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 3 05:03:07 UTC 2023 (Print Version | 20230403 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20230403 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal
  day2otlk_0600.gif
Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook
 
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 35,477 2,152,575 Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Waterloo, IA...Iowa City, IA...Dubuque, IA...
ENHANCED 112,116 7,388,971 Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Rockford, IL...Springfield, IL...Peoria, IL...
SLIGHT 152,245 24,862,090 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...
MARGINAL 111,408 13,831,458 Dallas, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Milwaukee, WI...Plano, TX...
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 030503

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO
   SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI....CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS PARTS
   OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF
   ARKANSAS...INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon
   into Tuesday night across the lower Missouri Valley into southern
   portions of the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the southeastern
   Great Plains into portions of the Mid South.  These could pose a
   risk for a few strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts.

   ...Synopsis...
   As initially amplified mid-level ridging over the mid-latitude
   eastern Pacific gradually becomes suppressed, models indicate that
   downstream troughing will broaden from the Great Basin into the
   Mississippi Valley.  This will be lead by a vigorous short wave
   trough, which is forecast to be accompanied by continuing strong
   surface cyclogenesis from the central Great Plains into the Upper
   Midwest, and building downstream mid-level ridging across the Upper
   Ohio Valley into Ontario, as well as across the northeastern Gulf of
   Mexico into Southeast.

   An intensifying southwesterly mid/upper jet streak (including speeds
   in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb) nosing across the central Great
   Plains through Upper Midwest will contribute to strong deep-layer
   shear within the warm sector of the cyclone.  At the same time,
   intensification of southerly lower-level flow (to 50-70+ kt around
   850 mb) likely will contribute to large clockwise-curved low-level
   hodographs.  This could potentially contribute to an environment
   conducive to supercells and organizing lines or clusters capable of
   producing strong tornadoes and damaging winds, where large-scale
   forcing for ascent and thermodynamic profiles can become favorable.

   However, among a number of substantive lingering uncertainties, the
   quality of the boundary-layer moisture return from the Gulf of
   Mexico remains in question.  Due to (at least initially) relatively
   shallow boundary-layer depth, downward mixing of drier air might
   impact sizable pockets of the potentially broad warm sector through
   the day, based on model output.  Also, ahead of the mid/upper
   troughing, destabilization associated with large-scale ascent and an
   influx of high-level moisture from the subtropical Pacific may
   contribute to convective development which tends to saturate and
   stabilize lapse rates down into the mid-levels, across much of the
   Ozark Plateau into middle Mississippi Valley.  While it appears that
   this will not completely erode the capping elevated mixed-layer air,
   thickening cloud cover aloft may inhibit surface heating and
   suppress potential thunderstorm development in the absence of lift
   to overcome the inhibition.

   ...Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley...
   Both the latest NAM and Rapid Refresh appear increasingly suggestive
   that the dryline could surge east-northeastward across southwestern
   Iowa and northwestern/west central Missouri, at least above the
   surface, by mid to late afternoon, in response to the progression of
   at least one speed maximum within the mid-level flow.  Model output
   generally indicates that largest CAPE will become focused ahead of
   this feature, and south of the warm front advancing northward across
   central Iowa/northern Illinois during the late afternoon.  And the
   dryline might provide a focus for sustained discrete supercell
   development with the potential to produce strong tornadoes while 
   propagating northeastward across northeastern Missouri and
   southeastern Iowa into northwestern and west central Illinois
   through early evening.

   In the wake of this activity, as the cold front begins to overtake
   the dryline and advance southeastward, various model output
   continues to suggest that the evolution of an organizing line or
   cluster of storms is possible.  This may pose a risk for large hail,
   damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes while propagating
   east-southeastward across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi
   Valley vicinity into Tuesday night.

   Farther south, developments initially along the dryline and then
   ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front remain a bit more
   unclear.  However, there has been a persistent signal within the
   model output that a narrow corridor of more substantive
   boundary-layer moistening could provide a focus for enhanced severe
   weather potential by Tuesday evening.  It is possible that
   associated destabilization may become aligned with the strong
   deep-layer mean flow, possibly allowing for the evolution of one or
   two long track supercells, ahead of a developing squall line.

   ..Kerr.. 04/03/2023
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Unfortunately today I fond out my sons friend and a boy I have watched grow up has contracted Spinal Meningitis.  He is only 16 and one of the nicest kids you will ever meet, a fantastic athlete, honer student and sophomore at cedar cliff high school . Unfortunately I just got a call that prayers are much needed for Gunner. The only thing I can do is ask for as many prayers for Gunner as I can find.

Guner Hiller's Home | MaxPreps

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