The Ides of March end of Winter 2023

[Voyager]

It never fails. Everytime there's snow in the forecast for Flagstaff, dispatch sends me up there... 

[Bubbler86]

The NWS AFD covers it but some moderate potential for a flash freeze in the Northern half and Northwestern corners of PA tonight with rapid temp drops. 

[Bubbler86]

MDT having a very average day with a high of 56/57 and a low of 36.  But month wise it seems locked in at being between 1 and 2 degrees AN.  It stands at 42.9 right now with some room to drop tomorrow with a well BN day forecasted but not a whole lot.   "Normal" is 41.3. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT having a very average day with a high of 56/57 and a low of 36.  But month wise it seems locked in at being between 1 and 2 degrees AN.  It stands at 42.9 right now with some room to drop tomorrow with a well BN day forecasted but not a whole lot.   "Normal" is 41.3. 

 

Think today was a good example of springtime water influence at MDT - although there were other stations in the same vicinity...surprised that most were a few degrees below the 61 here. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Think today was a good example of springtime water influence at MDT - although there were other stations in the same vicinity...surprised that most were a few degrees below the 61 here. 

I checked CXY and looks like they were 59.  We rose up to 54 here but already back down into the 40's.  We have covered all the plants that started to grow over the last week.  I doubt we make teens here but not surprised if we see 20-25. 

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

It never fails. Everytime there's snow in the forecast for Flagstaff, dispatch sends me up there... 

That's because they know of your I-81 Tower City elite winter driving experience! You should have told them during your interview that you resided in Florida.

[Coop_Mason]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I checked CXY and looks like they were 59.  We rose up to 54 here but already back down into the 40's.  We have covered all the plants that started to grow over the last week.  I doubt we make teens here but not surprised if we see 20-25. 

Are you in 40s now?

[Jns2183]

30" of new powder overnight. 
I'm about speechless at this point.

For you
Picture from lastyear vs current

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[canderson]

The 3k NAM for the MS Valley through the Ohio Valley is WILD for Friday. Serious storms. Very interested to see if SPC issues its largest-ever MOD warning tomorrow. Between spinning tops and the wind shear getting pushed down - Jesus.

If timing works out Saturday in PA I’d think sees an enhanced - timing doesn’t look ideal but who knows. Just depends on the front timing. If it can pass through from 2-5 pm all bets are off. 

Next Tuesday/Wednesday probably is a repeat of Friday/Saturday. Any cold front over the next few weeks unless the jet changes is going to cause major storms. We fly Tuesday afternoon - might not happen. Time will tell!

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

The 3k NAM for the MS Valley through the Ohio Valley is WILD for Friday. Serious storms. Very interested to see if SPC issues its largest-ever MOD warning tomorrow. Between spinning tops and the wind shear getting pushed down - Jesus.

If timing works out Saturday in PA I’d think sees an enhanced - timing doesn’t look ideal but who knows. Just depends on the front timing. If it can pass through from 2-5 pm all bets are off. 

Next Tuesday/Wednesday probably is a repeat of Friday/Saturday. Any cold front over the next few weeks unless the jet changes is going to cause major storms. We fly Tuesday afternoon - might not happen. Time will tell!

 

This is you at your best - I look forward to your severe thoughts. Keep this content rolling please. 

[canderson]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

This is you at your best - I look forward to your severe thoughts. Keep this content rolling please. 

Like all things severe, it can crash down for no expected reasons lol 

But Friday seems primed for a big outbreak. 

[canderson]

Pittsburgh’s NWS disco is much, much,,much more detailed about the high wind threat Saturday. They are all in, calling for hurricane force winds out there.  
 

A tight pressure gradient and strong southwest winds at all levels along with diurnal mixing will result in another strong wind event. 850 mb winds of 50-60 knots and 700 mb winds up to 70 knots are forecast. NBM deterministic wind gusts are in 50 to 55 knot range across Pittsburgh area with Hurricane Force gusts in the ridges of eastern Tucker County WV. Probability of 48+ knot
winds now 50 to 70% in the Pittsburgh metro area. A tad early
to issue the High Wind Watch for Saturday but probabilities of
damaging gradient winds are certainly on the rise so expect the issuance in the next day or two.

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, Coop_Mason said:

Are you in 40s now?

46 right now in Rou.  45 in Pen Mar.  See some low 40's to my SE and Upper 40's to my west.  A Wunderground report in PA Pen Mar is 48, my Pen Mar place is in MD.  Two different locales though close.    My Rou place is actually on the way to Pen Mar. 

 

[CoralRed]

Things kicking up in Williamsport. 8:54 update said 

Wind Speed

NW 36 G 48 mph

Out of the blue around 8:45 I heard the wind blowing hard, rain hitting windows and the windows singing their high wind song in the dining room. Then the ones in the living room joined in, at a higher pitch! I am not sure I have ever heard a peep from living room replacement windows before. Brief and eerie. Things quieted down quick but that may not be it for the night.

We also have this Special Weather statement for snow squalls and cold front passing but it mentions places like Canton and Shunk which are not near here and nothing that is.

[TheDreamTraveler]

That is some intense wind out there right now. Holy hell

[MAG5035]

Front arrived a little after 8 with a 39mph wind gust and a rapid drop in temps from the mid 40s to about 34-35ºF. Did have a changeover in the last half hour and the remaining precip around is currently snow. 

[canderson]

Hello wind. 

[mahantango#1]

Wow temp went from 50 to 41 with that front all within a half hour.

[canderson]

NAM has one of the strongest modeled supercells you really ever see over Chicago Friday.  

Here wind has gusted to 39. Didn’t expect this tonight. 

[Blizzard of 93]

I am currently in the Poconos thanks to a work conference that Mrs. Blizz is attending.

I am out on the balcony at 11 pm watching it absolutely rip heavy snow!!!

I finally am experiencing some Winter….and I am enjoying every second of it!!!

[canderson]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I am currently in the Poconos thanks to a work conference that Mrs. Blizz is attending.

I am out on the balcony at 11 pm watching it absolutely rip heavy snow!!!

I finally am experiencing some Winter….and I am enjoying every second on it!!!

You better go for a long walk in it! 

[Blizzard of 93]

30 minutes ago, canderson said:

You better go for a long walk in it! 

The third floor balcony is giving me the full experience. The heavy wind is pushing the snow flakes right to my balcony. I have an excellent view with a couple of well positioned lights.

Temps are dropping..I just went back in the room to put on my fleece & a hat!

Deep Winter conditions…for about 1 hour!

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The third floor balcony is giving me the full experience. The heavy wind is pushing the snow flakes right to my balcony. I have an excellent view with a couple of well positioned lights.

Temps are dropping..:I just went back in the room to room.to put on my fleece & a hat!

Deep Winter conditions…for about 1 hour!

I’m back out on the balcony…heavy snow continues at 11:30.

Approaching 1 inch on the grass/mulch areas. Road & sidewalks have not caved.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m back out on the balcony…heavy snow continues at 11:30.

Approaching 1 inch on the grass/mulch areas. Road & sidewalks have not caved.

Mrs. Blizz is not amused while she is trying to sleep…she is certainly not coming out on the balcony with me!

[canderson]

Mrs Blizzard about to be woken up in her own blizzard ifyouknowwhatimean

[Yardstickgozinya]

Yikes!!!  Not looking good. I'm thinking someone will end up upgraded to high risk by Friday. Speaking of 2011, I'm staring to see a reminiscent early spring pattern.   If these systems can continue to bring good energy this far east so early in the spring I think it will tell us a lot storm wise as we move forward into warmer climo.  Day 7 is also showing potential for something big. Maybe the trade off for no snow will be some kick ass spring light shows.

Mar 30, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Thu Mar 30 05:57:47 UTC 2023 (Print Version |  | )

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Tornado Wind Hail  Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook   Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area MODERATE 44,279 3,704,720 Memphis, TN...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Iowa City, IA...Jonesboro, AR... ENHANCED 175,248 14,076,681 Nashville, TN...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Aurora, IL... SLIGHT 187,977 31,474,477 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY... MARGINAL 155,983 18,555,370 Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Plano, TX...

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 300557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A bi-modal regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale upper trough will be oriented from the northern plains to the southern Rockies early Friday. The trough will continue to deepen as it shifts east toward the MS Valley by 00z, and oriented from the upper Great Lakes to the TN Valley vicinity by Saturday morning. With time, a closed low is expected to develop over eastern SD/NE/IA and a 100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. Intense southwesterly low-level flow also will overspread the Mid-South through much of the Midwest, with an 850 mb jet around 65-80 kt forecast by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a deepening low centered over eastern NE/western IA Friday morning will shift east across IA through the afternoon before lifting toward southern Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front will extend from the low into eastern KS/central OK/west-central TX at 12z, and shift east across much of the Midwest and Mid-South. Ahead of the eastward-advancing front, strong southerly flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. Near-60 F dewpoints are expected as far north as eastern IA into northern IL during the afternoon. The warm sector will become more narrow/pinched off with north and east extent toward the Ohio Valley during the evening/overnight hours. However, near 60 F dewpoints are still expected in a narrow corridor ahead of the surging cold front into far southern IN and central KY. Richer boundary-layer moisture will reside from the Mid-South into the Lower-MS/TN Valleys where low to mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... The strongest forcing/DCVA will be located over northern portions of the Mid-MS Valley close to the surface low/triple point. The expectation is that rapid destabilization through the morning (1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) and arrival of stronger forcing by early afternoon will result in initial supercell development near the surface low. All severe hazards will be possible with these fast moving storms, including a couple of strong tornadoes, intense damaging gusts and large hail. Cellular activity should spread across eastern IA/northern MO and into northwest IL before tendency toward upscale growth into linear convection ensues with eastward extent as convection develops south and east ahead of the front from east-central MO into northern/central IL. Damaging gusts will become more prominent with linear convection, though QLCS tornadoes will also be possible. Additional storms will likely form near/just north of the warm front and move into parts of far southeast MN and southern WI. This activity should remain elevated, posing a risk for large hail and strong gusts, though any cell rooting on the warm front will pose a tornado risk as well, though the better warm sector is expected to remain south of MN/WI. ...Mid-South Vicinity... A concerning scenario appears to be developing across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. ...OH/TN Valley vicinity... Low-level moisture/instability will begin to wane with north and east extent into the nighttime hours. However forecast guidance has consistently shown a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE with little/no inhibition. Forecast guidance generally tends to under-forecast north/east extent of severe potential in strongly forced, intense shear system. As such, the ongoing outlook maintains a broad gradient from Enhanced to Slight risk across this region. Damaging gusts and a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 03/30/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0746Z (3:46AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Yardstickgozinya]

I saw a few flakes last night .

The trick William Potter is not minding that it hurts.

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/last-ef5-tornado-united-states-record-longest-span

[pawatch]

That front come through last night it dropped the temperature about 20 degrees. With a 49 mph wind gust. Picking garbage this morning from a full trash can that got blowed over.

25 degrees this morning.

[Bubbler86]

25 here this AM.  No accumulated snow that I can see.