The Ides of March end of Winter 2023

[Porsche]

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thank you thank you, good stuff.  The thing I'm struggling with, at least around here anyway, is that I've never seen hail that didn't at least have somewhat of that milky white appearance to it, whereas this stuff was crystal clear.  Then on the other hand, I also haven't seen anything from an atmospheric standpoint that would indicate sleet was possible in that environment (i.e. no layers where a melting and refreeze would be possible).  My head tells me it had to be hail but my eyes were telling me another thing.  The only thing that's certain is that I've spent way too much time thinking about this haha.

Not sure if this helps, here a pic of the hail.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Re: Bolded...and you can chalk one up in the snow column for the MU area. 

 

Haha yes I'm familiar with those random summertime hail snow reports.

Hey @Itstrainingtime I'm sure you're aware of this but Mammoth said they actually missed about a foot of snow reporting back during one of their mega storm cycles.  They adjusted their totals to reflect that omission and are now up to 667" on the season and should eclipse 700 shortly.  Can't imagine how much the summit has received, 900??  Amazing. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Porsche said:

Not sure if this helps, here a pic of the hail.

 

That is 2" more than most of Lanco had for the whole winter. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thank you thank you, good stuff.  The thing I'm struggling with, at least around here anyway, is that I've never seen hail that didn't at least have somewhat of that milky white appearance to it, whereas this stuff was crystal clear.  Then on the other hand, I also haven't seen anything from an atmospheric standpoint that would indicate sleet was possible in that environment (i.e. no layers where a melting and refreeze would be possible).  My head tells me it had to be hail but my eyes were telling me another thing.  The only thing that's certain is that I've spent way too much time thinking about this haha.

To be fair ice is ice so what’s the difference? Haha

… Until it gets larger than golf ball sized then well you have issues. I’ve seen softball size hail - that was something. 

[Jns2183]

So how often does a day 5 wind threat get mentioned as "formidable" and "area wide 40mph" in day 5 extended forecasts? If someone has access to saturday's gfs wind guest they should post it.

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[Bubbler86]

Early bird nooners...where does one need to go to get real Spring?  44 cold degrees. 

[mahantango#1]

47 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

So how often does a day 5 wind threat get mentioned as "formidable" and "area wide 40mph" in day 5 extended forecasts? If someone has access to saturday's gfs wind guest they should post it.

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Yes it looks like a big wind day on Saturday for most of the state. JB was all over this.

[pawatch]

Nooner 51 degrees partly cloudy and windy.

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Yes it looks like a big wind day on Saturday for most of the state. JB was all over this.

I do not have the gust maps but GFS shows Sat Afternoon sustained winds well into the 20's with temps in the mid 70's.   GFS and CMC both have potted plants warnings for Thu and Fri AM prior to super hot Sat. 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

So how often does a day 5 wind threat get mentioned as "formidable" and "area wide 40mph" in day 5 extended forecasts? If someone has access to saturday's gfs wind guest they should post it.

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Huge front with big winds coming Saturday for sure. I'm not sure about high wind warnings, but would expect lots of wind advisories in the plains, Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic. 

PA might even see a good bit of severe weather Friday evening/overnight. Not tornadic but some strong storms and hail will be possible. 

[Jns2183]

Does anyone remember storms that came through June 1st, 2011? I think a tornado touched down near carlisle. I lived in carlisle and the image of the sky being super green in burned into my memory. There were also straightline winds 70mph as afterwards i renember downtown had half the streets closed due to straightline winds

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

50 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Does anyone remember storms that came through June 1st, 2011? I think a tornado touched down near carlisle. I lived in carlisle and the image of the sky being super green in burned into my memory. There were also straightline winds 70mph as afterwards i renember downtown had half the streets closed due to straightline winds

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Hmmmm in my spreadsheet I don't have anything for June 1 but I do have that I received an extremely heavy rainfall of 3.4" on June 11 with multiple flash flooding rescues needed.  Also that there were two confirmed tornados in York County on June 12, less than a mile from my parent's house in Red Lion.  Additionally, I have that three tornados were confirmed in central PA on May 23 and another four on May 26.  2011 was just a bonkers weather year.

Are you sure it was 2011?  For June 1, 2012 I have that heavy storms were all around and dumped 2.89" at my place but I don't have any notes about tornadoes; doesn't mean they didn't happen though. My notes are far from complete.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha yes I'm familiar with those random summertime hail snow reports.

Hey @Itstrainingtime I'm sure you're aware of this but Mammoth said they actually missed about a foot of snow reporting back during one of their mega storm cycles.  They adjusted their totals to reflect that omission and are now up to 667" on the season and should eclipse 700 shortly.  Can't imagine how much the summit has received, 900??  Amazing. 

 

I'm all over it! Mammoth is about to get smoked again - 3"/hour stuff inbound tonight. Going to eclipse 700" at Main and 900" at the summit. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Does anyone remember storms that came through June 1st, 2011? I think a tornado touched down near carlisle. I lived in carlisle and the image of the sky being super green in burned into my memory. There were also straightline winds 70mph as afterwards i renember downtown had half the streets closed due to straightline winds

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5 days earlier

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Super busy all day, wanted to do some housekeeping here:

 

Yesterday's high was 61, morning low this morning was 42. Received .44" of rain yesterday. Currently it's 50 with a light rain shower falling here at work. 

[canderson]

May 26 2011 HBG had a big storm that downed 3 massive trees on Front Street.   It ripped a gutter of my house too. 

Lots of down signs, poles, trees, etc all throughout the city. Here is one on the pics I took that day. 
 

 

[Jns2183]

May 26 2011 HBG had a big storm that downed 3 massive trees on Front Street.   It ripped a gutter of my house too. 
Lots of down signs, poles, trees, etc all throughout the city. Here is one on the pics I took that day. 
 
 

Thats the one.
I forget what causes the green sky and how its related to severe storms but ill never forget how erie it was and how you could tell how much shear was there due to super fast moving low clouds heading at different angles to the storm motion

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[MAG5035]

8 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thank you thank you, good stuff.  The thing I'm struggling with, at least around here anyway, is that I've never seen hail that didn't at least have somewhat of that milky white appearance to it, whereas this stuff was crystal clear.  Then on the other hand, I also haven't seen anything from an atmospheric standpoint that would indicate sleet was possible in that environment (i.e. no layers where a melting and refreeze would be possible).  My head tells me it had to be hail but my eyes were telling me another thing.  The only thing that's certain is that I've spent way too much time thinking about this haha.

I missed this convo yesterday, but most certainly would have been a hail situation looking at the mesoanalysis stuff from yesterday afternoon. Freezing level was well above 850mb closer to 700mb. Pretty steep low and mid-level lapses during max heating but minimal CAPE would have limited storm top height and updraft strength. Result is the potential was there for only small hailstone formation and also that the storm updraft wouldn’t have carried them very high into much colder temps aloft. Rapid freezing and also layering from being caught in a stronger storm updraft can give the hail the cloudier appearance. Hail is clear when the ice freezes slower, which was likely the case with the limited convective potential and cloud top height yesterday. 

[Itstrainingtime]

History in the making right here: 

 

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village

 

Town needed 1" to eclipse the all-time record. Going to get a whole lot more than that over the next 15 hours. 

[WmsptWx]

Does anyone remember storms that came through June 1st, 2011? I think a tornado touched down near carlisle. I lived in carlisle and the image of the sky being super green in burned into my memory. There were also straightline winds 70mph as afterwards i renember downtown had half the streets closed due to straightline winds

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I remember the sirens going off in Wormleysburg. That was insane.

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[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I remember the sirens going off in Wormleysburg. That was insane.

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There are towns around our area with Tornado sirens? 

 

I feel really stupid - I thought that was a midwest/south thing...

[canderson]

I’m getting intrigued for severe Saturday, especially the western parts of our region. 

[canderson]

And with the polar jet and upper latter in flux, April looks rough for anyone east of Colorado possibly. This creates super fast systems that can spin up tons of severe weather. I’m in Texas for a week starting next week so expect some gnarly stuff (and to miss some here). 

[canderson]

Also I land in Austin next Tuesday and the high will be around 95 it seems. Might hit 100 just to the city’s west. That is insanity for early April. Mid 80s is common but not pushing 100. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

5 days earlier

 

I think this was the same system that produced the Joplin EF5 on the 22 if I remember correctly . Could be wrong about that but I defiantly remember a tornadic storm around this date. It was a weird cell in that it was very elongated and liner looking but it was one cell with two inflow notches . If I have the right storm it also produced several funnel clouds. I was working in Etters that day the bark was much worse than the bite out there.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I don't know if anyone remembers the nocturnal storm that formed and collapsed over Hershey in 2011. It was a rouge storm on a clear night with by far the most powerful strokes of lightning I have ever seen in my life. Even here in New Cumberland the earth shook with every stroke. 2011 was the shit minus all the death and destruction

[Yardstickgozinya]

On 3/27/2023 at 7:30 PM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I’m very familiar with graupel and have experienced it many times. This was 100% not graupel.  Temp dropped to low 50s while the heaviest stuff was falling. I just know I was watching translucent ice pellets bouncing off of numerous surfaces, and I fully acknowledge the various reports of hail in the area. Who knows ha. 

I always appreciate your posts Mr. Snowman . I hope my post didn't come across as a lecture towards you. Just giving my own many experiences with graupel . I will be sure to post pics and vids in the future that will leave experienced meso hounds scratching their heads and questioning what and when is possible as far as graupel or some kind of rounded perlite looking ice pellet is concerned in my area.

[Yardstickgozinya]

On 3/27/2023 at 5:58 PM, Bubbler86 said:

I figured they needed run and I can guess many people do not. 

I added the oil info because find that most run regular small engine oil in there snow blowers and wounder why it will only throw snow a few feet even with new scraper blades. If the viscosity is too low you can lose 20%-50% torque because all your compression can exit piston cylinder, and or valves. If viscosity is too high and its cold out it will be hard starting  and can damage gaskets. When it comes to snowblowers use exactly what the manual says. If it cant be found order it.

[mahantango#1]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
550 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
301000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
550 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A quick burst of heavy snow, gusty winds, and a sharp drop in the
visibility could result in locally hazardous travel conditions this
evening into early tonight. Wet roads may freeze with icy spots
possible especially on bridges, overpasses, and untreated secondary
roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph may result in isolated tree
damage and power outages on Saturday.

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
550 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023

PAZ026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-301000-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
550 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph may result in isolated tree
damage and power outages on Saturday.

[Bubbler86]

A chilly 35 again this AM.  Does anyone hit teens tonight/tomorrow AM?  Atomix area the most likely.   For the LSB, the colder models are about a degree warmer than yesterdays depict.