Itstrainingtime Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Very heavy shower just erupted here with copious amounts of sleet mixed in as well. Took me by surprise. You had sleet? Holy crap, it's 60.7 on my weather station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Very heavy shower just erupted here with copious amounts of sleet mixed in as well. Took me by surprise. Chalk one more snow day up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Chalk one more snow day up. That is crazy though - I've had sleet with temps in the upper 40s, but 60? Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Elliott's April outlook: Let's talk about #April. Many forecasters are calling for below-avg. temps and even mentioning the threat of a late-season snowfall. In my opinion, this is unlikely. Why? First, the MJO may be active in phases 5-7.. all of which are "warm" phases in an ENSO-neutral April.. Next, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern should remain negative. A strongly -PNA indicates a deep trough, or dip in the #jetstream, across the West and a mean ridge in the East. Thus, I expect temps to be 2-4°F above normal for the month in southeastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Elliott's April outlook: Let's talk about #April. Many forecasters are calling for below-avg. temps and even mentioning the threat of a late-season snowfall. In my opinion, this is unlikely. Why? First, the MJO may be active in phases 5-7.. all of which are "warm" phases in an ENSO-neutral April.. Next, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern should remain negative. A strongly -PNA indicates a deep trough, or dip in the #jetstream, across the West and a mean ridge in the East. Thus, I expect temps to be 2-4°F above normal for the month in southeastern PA. The GFS is looking a little more coolish the second week of April now. I wonder if we see any teens this week though (colder spots) ...post your Wundermaps to stop second guessing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You had sleet? Holy crap, it's 60.7 on my weather station. Yeah I heard it on the house first so went outside to check and sure enough there was some sleet pinging around with the heavy rain. Funny enough, some people near me appear to have reported pea sized hail on mPing but what I witnessed was most certainly small ice pellets and not the more rounded milky white opaque nature of hail. I don't know man I'm struggling with it too haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah I heard it on the house first so went outside to check and sure enough there was some sleet pinging around with the heavy rain. Funny enough, some people near me appear to have reported pea sized hail on mPing but what I witnessed was most certainly small ice pellets and not the more rounded milky white opaque nature of hail. I don't know man I'm struggling with it too haha. I wasn't doubting you - I'm sincerely stunned, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS is looking a little more coolish the second week of April now. I wonder if we see any teens this week though (colder spots) ...post your Wundermaps to stop second guessing! My forecast lows this week are all above freezing with the exception of Wednesday morning, which is currently 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I wasn't doubting you - I'm sincerely stunned, however. Well I'm doubting myself! But seriously, hard to discount my own firsthand account. From looking at some skew-T's, I do see some very steep lapse rates are in place today so that would obviously help with convection and hail and whatnot, but not sure about possible effects with regards to sleet reaching the ground. Intriguing nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Just received a nice little hailstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: My forecast lows this week are all above freezing with the exception of Wednesday morning, which is currently 31. I was looking at the CMC and GFS both driving much of the LSV into the Mid to upper 20's this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Very heavy shower just erupted here with copious amounts of sleet mixed in as well. Took me by surprise. How warm was the temperature there when it happened? It could have been graupel which is rare but occurs sometimes with temps above freezing. I've had it happen here once a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Grauple is a lot more common then people think ,and absolutely happens in warmer environments than today . I cant count the times I have seen it at the very beginning of rain events even if it only last 30 seconds, especially at night. Not surprised at all here given the temps.I know for a fact It can happen in any season because I have seen it many times in every season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 .15” on the gauge today. It was sunny due probably half that amount too. Weird afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said: Same as any other small engine, the gaskets can dry out and become damaged if its sits to long . If there is gas in it change it out and run it for a few mins twice a year. Its more important than other small engines to use the right oil in snowblowers. Because they will always be operated in low temps there is more gap clearance between piston and cylinder so you will lose alot of compression if the oil is wrong. I figured they needed run and I can guess many people do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 Gotta love this forecast for Mammoth for tomorrow night - snow "could" be heavy at times...but look at the expected accumulations just for tomorrow night: Tuesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 13. Very windy, with a southwest wind 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 25 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Gotta love this forecast for Mammoth for tomorrow night - snow "could" be heavy at times...but look at the expected accumulations just for tomorrow night: Tuesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 13. Very windy, with a southwest wind 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 25 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible. Truly amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 2 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said: How warm was the temperature there when it happened? It could have been graupel which is rare but occurs sometimes with temps above freezing. I've had it happen here once a few years ago I’m very familiar with graupel and have experienced it many times. This was 100% not graupel. Temp dropped to low 50s while the heaviest stuff was falling. I just know I was watching translucent ice pellets bouncing off of numerous surfaces, and I fully acknowledge the various reports of hail in the area. Who knows ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I’m very familiar with graupel and have experienced it many times. This was 100% not graupel. Temp dropped to low 50s while the heaviest stuff was falling. I just know I was watching translucent ice pellets bouncing off of numerous surfaces, and I fully acknowledge the various reports of hail in the area. Who knows ha. Hail isn’t always cylinder - I’ve seen a metric ton of it and it can be boxy, long and somewhat narrow, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Hail isn’t always cylinder - I’ve seen a metric ton of it and it can be boxy, long and somewhat narrow, etc. It also counts towards snow totals if it accumulates… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It also counts towards snow totals if it accumulates… Speaking of non-snow that counts as snow, my biggest event for the 2022-23 season was in central Arkansas. I did see nearly 2" of sleet at my hotel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Speaking of non-snow that counts as snow, my biggest event for the 2022-23 season was in central Arkansas. I did see nearly 2" of sleet at my hotel. I remember trying to will those waves of precip to the north, but the pattern would just not allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 I’m trying to rationalize our snow failure this season. The western part of the country has had record snow in many locations. The pattern locked in & refused to break down for most of the season. What if next year or some upcoming year, this type of repeating pattern locked in for the eastern part of the country? Imagine how much fun that all of the regional forums would have if there was record breaking snow from VA to Maine? How awesome would it be to have a repetitive storm track from the Gulf of Mexico to off of the coast of VA?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 A crisp 35 this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 Normal highs for today are in the mid-50's we will not see temps that warm until Friday. The chilliest day of the week will be Thursday with highs running nearly 10 degrees below normal. We also have the chance of some below freezing mornings over the next 3 days. Keep an eye on any plants you may already have outside. Our next rain chances arrive on Friday afternoon. Records: High 84 (1945) / Low 16 (1928) / Rain 2.26" (1932) / Snow 1.0" (1956) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 40 this morning. .001 rain yesterday, I was expecting more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 51 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A crisp 35 this AM. Only got to 42 here in Marysville. A few clouds must have “Ruined” my overnight low… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Only got to 42 here in Marysville. A few clouds must have “Ruined” my overnight low… Already up to 39 here so not missing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 11 hours ago, canderson said: Hail isn’t always cylinder - I’ve seen a metric ton of it and it can be boxy, long and somewhat narrow, etc. Thank you thank you, good stuff. The thing I'm struggling with, at least around here anyway, is that I've never seen hail that didn't at least have somewhat of that milky white appearance to it, whereas this stuff was crystal clear. Then on the other hand, I also haven't seen anything from an atmospheric standpoint that would indicate sleet was possible in that environment (i.e. no layers where a melting and refreeze would be possible). My head tells me it had to be hail but my eyes were telling me another thing. The only thing that's certain is that I've spent way too much time thinking about this haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Thank you thank you, good stuff. The thing I'm struggling with, at least around here anyway, is that I've never seen hail that didn't at least have somewhat of that milky white appearance to it, whereas this stuff was crystal clear. Then on the other hand, I also haven't seen anything from an atmospheric standpoint that would indicate sleet was possible in that environment (i.e. no layers where a melting and refreeze would be possible). My head tells me it had to be hail but my eyes were telling me another thing. The only thing that's certain is that I've spent way too much time thinking about this haha. Re: Bolded...and you can chalk one up in the snow column for the MU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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