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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The apparent lack of hitting 70 today sets up MDT for a decent chance of no 70's in March...would be first time since 2018 as I mentioned the other day.   Still 7 days to go but today was the obvious chance to break that. 

 

While talking about weather oddities, here are a few more facts thrown out today to illustrate just how bad we sucked at winter this year:

 

 Speaking of snow, Millersville has still only received a whopping 0.9 inches of snow since October 1. Thus, it's a virtual "lock" that the record for least-snowy winter season (4.0 inches in 1949-1950) will be obliterated. Should this indeed occur, Millersville will fail to receive at least one, single-storm snowfall of one or more inches for the first time on record (since 1926). By April 1, no measurable snow will have occurred in November, December, February, and March at the 'Ville. The only measurable snow this season (0.9 inches) came on January 25, 2023. Never before has there been just one measurable snowfall in a winter season and no measurable snowfall in all 4 of the months mentioned above. The moving 4-year average for snow is now the lowest on record at a measly 13.6 inches. Combine these stats with a record-warm January-February period, and the unprecedented nature of this winter is truly brought into focus. 

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Pretty good disco in the MA long ranger about the SER - why will it not go away? Every time it's modeled to do so...it doesn't. If that doesn't get eradicated somehow, it's foolish to think that winters will be improve much at all over this year. 

 

Hopefully with the death of Nina there will be a positive response by next winter. 

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

While talking about weather oddities, here are a few more facts thrown out today to illustrate just how bad we sucked at winter this year:

 

 Speaking of snow, Millersville has still only received a whopping 0.9 inches of snow since October 1. Thus, it's a virtual "lock" that the record for least-snowy winter season (4.0 inches in 1949-1950) will be obliterated. Should this indeed occur, Millersville will fail to receive at least one, single-storm snowfall of one or more inches for the first time on record (since 1926). By April 1, no measurable snow will have occurred in November, December, February, and March at the 'Ville. The only measurable snow this season (0.9 inches) came on January 25, 2023. Never before has there been just one measurable snowfall in a winter season and no measurable snowfall in all 4 of the months mentioned above. The moving 4-year average for snow is now the lowest on record at a measly 13.6 inches. Combine these stats with a record-warm January-February period, and the unprecedented nature of this winter is truly brought into focus. 

He did not say cyclical one time!  LOL.  Hopefully next year does get us back in the goods. 

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57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

HH GFs went back toward having a system for next week....rates are not there for snow but a somewhat surprising back pedal. 

I’m not even sure that it’s the same system on the 18z GFS?

It now has the storm on Monday night, where as recent good runs before it was a late Tuesday into Wednesday system 

72A78FB5-E6C3-4C50-8B0E-03284D503B65.png

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The last couple months, the GFS has spanked the Euro often specific to first to trend on impending weather.    Heisey said it and I concur, the Euro has been a joke recently.  Disappearing storms 4 days out.  

The models have all taken turns being terrible this year. 
No one is wearing the “crown” right now.

All of the old rules were thrown out this year. The signals & model trends that usually work to move toward a consensus once inside of the 5 to 7 day window did not work this season.

I am done with this La Nina!

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Just had what might’ve been a better thunderstorm than anything I saw last year lol. Really vivid lightning/thunder for March, pea sized hail, gusty wind,  and 0.36” in 20 min with a max rate of 1.6”/hr. Rain spouts caved haha. 0.94” of rain on the day so far. 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The models have all taken turns being terrible this year. 
No one is wearing the “crown” right now.

All of the old rules were thrown out this year. The signals & model trends that usually work to move toward a consensus once inside of the 5 to 7 day window did not work this season.

I am done with this La Nina!

Right now the cmc is king.  Our last cold night, gfs had pillow in the 30's and cms said teens.  Pillow scored a 17

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3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I saw that hail core on the radar and thought of you. As far as I can tell no hail here but I was busy putting a toddler to bed so it’s possible I missed a brief bout. 

 

It literally formed crossing the river and dissipated as soon as it moved SE of me - it was only on 1, perhaps 2 frames and gone. Just happened to hit me square.  

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

46 here this AM after a midnight high of 56.  MDT had a midnight high between 59-61. 

Yeah it definitely got us good over here as well, the midnight high that is. We had one 5 minute period last night  where we got ~1/4” in five minutes. Seems we’re up to ~.7” total. Not shabby. 

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