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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I am VERY close to the airpark - you're new around here, we call it Maytown Intertownship Airport. Or, MIA (missing in action) for short. 

 

I got the 447' mark from somewhere online years ago. Bad data. I hate bad data. No data is better than bad data.

 

I guess I need to spot check everything I post from now on. :) 

I’ve got you pegged — you’re the operator of the Creekside Greenhouse on Donegal Springs Road. ;)

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Assuming @millersvilleu receives no more measurable snow through April, the record for least-snowy winter season (4.0" in 1949-1950) will be obliterated. We've gotten 0.9" of snow since Oct. 1, and the moving 4-year avg. for snow is now 13.6".. the lowest on record (since 1926).

Kinda crazy how we went from having record frequent snowstorms and blizzards into the 2010s than any other decade and are now experiencing some of the least snowiest years ever. The fact 2019-2020 and 2022-2023 are the top 2 least snowiest years in a lot of south central is wild. And for some areas it was the least snowiest February ever record with just a trace despite that being our snowiest month

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is why I have a hard time buying the cyclical thoughts as to it not being worse now.  

Lol, did you see what @ChescoWx posted yesterday with the snow stats for the decades over the last hundred years?

There have been great decades & terrible decades for snow…very cyclical….

Just because 2 of the last 3 years have been really bad does not mean that 2 of the next 3 years can’t be great snow seasons.

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17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, did you see what @ChescoWx posted yesterday with the snow stats for the decades over the last hundred years?

There have been great decades & terrible decades for snow…very cyclical….

Just because 2 of the last 3 years have been really bad does not mean that 2 of the next 3 years can’t be great snow seasons.

Did you see the temp graph I posted?  There was nothing cyclical in it.  Especially for the world but even PA.  I am not saying snow is done but I do believe what happened 100 years ago is not relevant to what may happen in the future.

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Assuming @millersvilleu receives no more measurable snow through April, the record for least-snowy winter season (4.0" in 1949-1950) will be obliterated. We've gotten 0.9" of snow since Oct. 1, and the moving 4-year avg. for snow is now 13.6".. the lowest on record (since 1926).

I’ve never seen a “moving 4 year average” used to track snow trends.

I prefer to look at 10 year periods to identify a trend. The last 10 years at MDT when factoring in this current season will end up with 6 of the last 10 seasons producing  above average snow.

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did you see the temp graph I posted?  There was nothing cyclical in it.  Especially for the world but even PA.  I am not saying snow is done but I do believe what happened 100 years ago is not relevant to what may happen in the future.

I wonder what temps were like back in 500 AD or 750 BC….? 

Good thing that models are super accurate in order to predict 5 or 50 years into the future…

History must have just started 100 years ago?

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39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I wonder what temps were like back in 500 AD or 750 BC….? 

Good thing that models are super accurate in order to predict 5 or 50 years into the future…

History must have just started 100 years ago?

Cannot say something is cyclical when it is continuously going up over the entire time of records we have (temps).  I think you are concentrating on snow and my comment was on winter as a whole including temps.  I do not believe MU being under 1' is just one to chalk up "no harm, no foul.".   But they could score 40" next winter.  We do not suddenly live on the sun but the temps this winter went a long way to causing the miniscule snow total.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Cannot say something is cyclical when it is continuously going up over the entire time of records we have (temps).  I think you are concentrating on snow and my comment was on winter as a whole including temps.  I do not believe MU being under 1' is just one to chalk up "no harm, no foul.".   But they could score 40" next winter.  We do not suddenly live on the sun but the temps this winter went a long way to causing the miniscule snow total.

 

 

My point is that no one has much of a clue on global average temps going back more than a couple of hundred years ago.

My other point is that Climate models can’t be very accurate with predictions for future decades when ensembles can’t provide an accurate forecast 15 days out.

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Took advantage of the beautiful weather yesterday to plow our garden. Now we will go into a wetter weather pattern. I doubt anything will get planted for at least a month or later from now. Soil conditions were perfect for plowing. There are not too many times you get to plow in March especially the bottom lands. I could have plowed in February too as ground conditions were good also.
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Potential for some snow and ice in NE PA Saturday AM as a stalled front lingers around PA.  The same front presents the risk of yet another midnight high Friday AM as most of the day could be a 40-50 for PA but in the 60's at midnight for MDT.  As bad as the temps have been this winter the constant run of midnight highs makes it look worse.   Saturday looks good right now...for helping the surface moisture.   

 

GFS and CMC both have the potential for some snow 7 days from now (for everyone). 

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