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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Yes sir. Not to bore you with meaningless info, but when watching these videos it's helpful to know this about the area:

 

Mammoth Mountain is 11,053' in elevation. The ski area extends from the summit down to Canyon Lodge, which sits at 8,300'. (Main Lodge is at 8,900')

 

The actual town of Mammoth Lakes sits at about 7,800'. Snow levels during the most recent storm rose to about 8,000' for a time on Friday, the town itself had a few hours of rain/snow mix. The town "only" received about 36" from the last storm, it was 5-1 ratio stuff as there was over 6.5" of liquid in that snow. That type of snow they refer to as "Sierra Cement" if you hear that in the videos you watch. 

 

There is also what is referred to as "The Village" which is a large area of rental condos and rooms that sits at 8,100' and is what you can view on mammothmountain.com cams - and that is where we'll be staying for 3 nights in May. All of those elevations are actually important as during a lot of Atmospheric River events, the snow level often rises to about 8,000'...so during a lot of storms, it's snowing like crazy on the Mountain and down to the Village while the "town" of Mammoth Lakes might be in a messy mix. 

 

Mammoth Lakes is expecting 20 -30" today and tonight. The mountain is expecting 42 - 54". On the mountain itself there will be close to 750" of snowfall for the season by tomorrow. More storms are expected next week and they are to be colder storms, with snow levels falling well below the town, so Mammoth Lakes will be getting a lot more snow in the coming weeks.

 

So far, the flooding has been below the 6500' level. Once Mammoth Lakes gets into a bona fide thaw and/or has a significant rainfall, it could get ugly in town BUT unfortunately, it will be far worse down lower as of course...all of that melting snow in Mammoth Lakes and ultimately out on the mountain itself is going to go downhill from there. 

Thanks for the background.  I was just thinking the other day how all of this would affect the long-term drought in areas of the west.  Much of Cali is now out of D2 and not much D3 or D4 out there anymore.    I must admit that beyond looking at the drought map, I do not follow it that closely.  Ironically, I just looked, and YOU are in D0 now.   I am sure parts of the LSV being in a drought will make Blizz happy. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks for the background.  I was just thinking the other day how all of this would affect the long-term drought in areas of the west.  Much of Cali is now out of D2 and not much D3 or D4 out there anymore.    I must admit that beyond looking at the drought map, I do not follow it that closely.  Ironically, I just looked, and YOU are in D0 now.   I am sure parts of the LSV being in a drought will make Blizz happy. 

 

That's why I've been actively rooting for any rain we get. It has been dry. I'm not surprised to hear that. 

 

The entire LA basin depends on mountain snowmelt for water - I just read this morning that the snowpack on Mammoth Mountain now has over 90" of QPF in it. The all-time record is 98" of QPF which was set in 1983. There is a potential for significant long-term relief in the So Cal populous...but at what cost will that come if all of that water comes downhill too quickly?

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

That's why I've been actively rooting for any rain we get. It has been dry. I'm not surprised to hear that. 

 

The entire LA basin depends on mountain snowmelt for water - I just read this morning that the snowpack on Mammoth Mountain now has over 90" of QPF in it. The all-time record is 98" of QPF which was set in 1983. There is a potential for significant long-term relief in the So Cal populous...but at what cost will that come if all of that water comes downhill too quickly?

Yea, the flooding is certainly a risk.  It is a slippery slope to count on too much forward-thinking info, so I guess that have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.   

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Current storm has already dropped over 2 feet in parts of New England with many more hours of snow left to come...

Shaping up to be a pretty big bust though in populated areas of CT/Eastern Mass.  Forecast areas of 12-16 may end up with a few inches or none at all.  Kinda fun to track actually since I had no emotional investment like I would have if it was impacting down here!

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

As many say this is where we want it to be! :axe:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

 

It's fine for now - juiced up SS shortwave is what we want. Still a lot to work out and need to go right timing wise but at least it's a single vort in the south and we're not worrying about a stupid transfer or something like that.

 

Yet. 

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It looked like your neck of the woods made a good case for probably should’ve been part of the winter weather advisory tonight. 
I was dealing with a sick kid and was surprised to see the snow. About 3". Probably the third best event of the season lol.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

Shaping up to be a pretty big bust though in populated areas of CT/Eastern Mass.  Forecast areas of 12-16 may end up with a few inches or none at all.  Kinda fun to track actually since I had no emotional investment like I would have if it was impacting down here!

 

Wanted to follow up on this. I store so much information in my head...have to keep on learning is my mantra. One thing I'm seeing a LOT of today while perusing the NE and NYC subs is this - much of the disappointment is not because it's not snowing but because it's not sticking. White rain abounds in areas where temps are marginal and intensity is not moderate to heavy. I think most in this thread know this but it's something to keep in mind...one of those recent GFS runs for next week had midday air temps around 34-36 degrees in the LSV. We'd be in trouble if that played out like that. Temp will have to be lower and we'll need big time rates to compensate for the date. Back in 2018 I was accumulating nicely midday first day of spring but it was legit +SN and it was 31 degrees. 

 

A lot of those reporting stations up there where white rain is falling are at 34-36 degrees...

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12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Wanted to follow up on this. I store so much information in my head...have to keep on learning is my mantra. One thing I'm seeing a LOT of today while perusing the NE and NYC subs is this - much of the disappointment is not because it's not snowing but because it's not sticking. White rain abounds in areas where temps are marginal and intensity is not moderate to heavy. I think most in this thread know this but it's something to keep in mind...one of those recent GFS runs for next week had midday air temps around 34-36 degrees in the LSV. We'd be in trouble if that played out like that. Temp will have to be lower and we'll need big time rates to compensate for the date. Back in 2018 I was accumulating nicely midday first day of spring but it was legit +SN and it was 31 degrees. 

 

A lot of those reporting stations up there where white rain is falling are at 34-36 degrees...

100% correct. I know sun angle gets thrown around a lot across the forums, but in March it can be an accumulation killer.  Especially, as you pointed out, in light to moderate intensity periods.

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Wanted to follow up on this. I store so much information in my head...have to keep on learning is my mantra. One thing I'm seeing a LOT of today while perusing the NE and NYC subs is this - much of the disappointment is not because it's not snowing but because it's not sticking. White rain abounds in areas where temps are marginal and intensity is not moderate to heavy. I think most in this thread know this but it's something to keep in mind...one of those recent GFS runs for next week had midday air temps around 34-36 degrees in the LSV. We'd be in trouble if that played out like that. Temp will have to be lower and we'll need big time rates to compensate for the date. Back in 2018 I was accumulating nicely midday first day of spring but it was legit +SN and it was 31 degrees. 
 
A lot of those reporting stations up there where white rain is falling are at 34-36 degrees...
ItsLearningTime

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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